Can we win the title? - statistical geekery

So we've reached the half way point in the league and we are on 40 points. Stating the bleeding obvious if we repeated this in the second half we would end up on 80 points, which if history is correct would be nowhere near enough to win the title.

However I wanted to know in historical terms whether we can from the position we are in now win the title. So I looked at all the teams after 23 games and how many points they had after 23 games. The news isn't great to be honest since Promotion/Relegation was introduced only 2 (out of 2 teams with 40 points or less have gone onto win the title. The average title winning team has 47.25 points after 23 games.

Here are the stats they go: team name, number of points after 23 games, (total points they got) and then points they got after 23 games and this as a percentage. I've not done the total points after 23 or percentage for Accrington and before as they only played 42 games.

Luton 47 (101)  54 points  53%
Mansfield 35 (95) 60 points 63%
Crawley 52 (105) 53 points 50%
Fleetwood 50 (103) 53 points 51%
Stevenage 47 (99) 52 points  52%
Burton Albion 49 (8 39 points 44%
Aldershot 55 (101) 46 points 45%,
Dagenham 47 (95) 48 points 50%
Accrington 49 ( 91) Barnet 52 (86) Chester 47 (92) Yeovil 49 (95) Boston United  48 (84) Rushden 44 (86) Kidderminster 40 (85) Cheltenham Town 49  (80)  Halifax 49 ( 87) Macclesfield 43(90) Stevenage 48  (91) Macclesfield 50 (80)Kidderminster  41 (75) Wycombe 52 (83) Colchester 51 (94) Barnet 48 (87) Darlington 48 (87)Maidstone United 42 (84) Lincoln 48 (82) Scarborough 43  (91)

So teams in the 46 game season generally do only slightly better in the second half of the season. Again not great news. However a few anecdotal points. Firstly coming from second at this stage of the season is not particularly rare. Barnet's points tally isn't that great either - it's probably the total number of winning points will be quite low - I'm guessing around 90 points.

One other thing - we've also got to 23 games earlier than any other team

Quoted from horsforthmariner

So we've reached the half way point in the league and we are on 40 points. Stating the bleeding obvious if we repeated this in the second half we would end up on 80 points, which if history is correct would be nowhere near enough to win the title.

However I wanted to know in historical terms whether we can from the position we are in now win the title. So I looked at all the teams after 23 games and how many points they had after 23 games. The news isn't great to be honest since Promotion/Relegation was introduced only 2 (out of 2 teams with 40 points or less have gone onto win the title. The average title winning team has 47.25 points after 23 games.

Here are the stats they go: team name, number of points after 23 games, (total points they got) and then points they got after 23 games and this as a percentage. I've not done the total points after 23 or percentage for Accrington and before as they only played 42 games.

Luton 47 (101)  54 points  53%
Mansfield 35 (95) 60 points 63%
Crawley 52 (105) 53 points 50%
Fleetwood 50 (103) 53 points 51%
Stevenage 47 (99) 52 points  52%
Burton Albion 49 (8 39 points 44%
Aldershot 55 (101) 46 points 45%,
Dagenham 47 (95) 48 points 50%
Accrington 49 ( 91) Barnet 52 (86) Chester 47 (92) Yeovil 49 (95) Boston United  48 (84) Rushden 44 (86) Kidderminster 40 (85) Cheltenham Town 49  (80)  Halifax 49 ( 87) Macclesfield 43(90) Stevenage 48  (91) Macclesfield 50 (80)Kidderminster  41 (75) Wycombe 52 (83) Colchester 51 (94) Barnet 48 (87) Darlington 48 (87)Maidstone United 42 (84) Lincoln 48 (82) Scarborough 43  (91)

So teams in the 46 game season generally do only slightly better in the second half of the season. Again not great news. However a few anecdotal points. Firstly coming from second at this stage of the season is not particularly rare. Barnet's points tally isn't that great either - it's probably the total number of winning points will be quite low - I'm guessing around 90 points.

One other thing - we've also got to 23 games earlier than any other team

Now compare that with towns 2nd half of the season from the past 4 seasons or since being in the conference.

You've put a lot of work into that, well done.

UTM

Now compare that with towns 2nd half of the season from the past 4 seasons or since being in the conference.[/quote]

Ok

2013-2014 43 (7 35 -45%
2012-2013  43 (83) 40 -48%
2011-2012 29 (70) 41 – 58%
2010-2011  35 (62) 27 43%

This shows an average of 35.75 points in the second half of the season - which probably wouldn't see us into to the play offs.

The season we got the most in the second 23 games we played (like this season) our first 23 games by the end of november.

Quoted from mariner tommy

You've put a lot of work into that, well done.

UTM

thanks

I know the total points amassed at the half way stage by town and Barnet is comparatively low compared to other seasons in this division, but could this be down to just how wide open and competitive this league really is? Teams really are taking points if each other quite regularly, and there seems plenty of draws also. This division has never been tighter and a lower points tally I believe will secure the title.

Problem is Town are always playing catch up .  The terms like  " If we win the next two and they lose both" have become an all to familar set of hopes that we cling onto . The only way to do is it like Luton last year . Take it by the scruff of the neck and attack teams , run at teams , scare teams . We are the Mighty Grimsby Town and who the intercourse are you ..............................

What has happened in the past is history,

All we need to do is Beat Barnet twice and get more points in the 2nd half of the season than anybody else,

Easy Peasy  

Apparently, if you split in half every season we've been in the conference - ie nine half seasons - this has been our sixth best half season. And we're second in the league. Not sure what this tells us, but basically I think it means we've got a hell of a chance of winning this fecker!!

add in we will probably need to find an extra 10 points once we have some deducted for smoke bomb related crimes then we may as well start "planning next seasons conference promotion camaign on a slightly lesser budget" now.

Also the figure given is slightly skewed as there are teams with games in hand who can surpass our 23 game total so we may be further down the pecking order yet....plus we have just had a pretty extraordinary run of wins to gather our current total which i cannot see being maintained....play off lottery at best i think.

The most remarkable stat of the season so far is that our last four games have had a double digit in the middle of the attendance figure: 3443,1881,3446, 2663. I reckon the odds of that happening in thoes specific games are 10,000-1

Danny Franchetti's jazz box

Quoted from moosey_club

add in we will probably need to find an extra 10 points once we have some deducted for smoke bomb related crimes then we may as well start "planning next seasons conference promotion camaign on a slightly lesser budget" now.

Also the figure given is slightly skewed as there are teams with games in hand who can surpass our 23 game total so we may be further down the pecking order yet....plus we have just had a pretty extraordinary run of wins to gather our current total which i cannot see being maintained....play off lottery at best i think.

I am really glad my glass is full: your half empty one must feel lighter by the second as you watch/wish it to evaporate before your eyes.

Yes we can and will win the title this season.

Stats only tell a factual tablet: football is a game of skill and chance, with many factors deciding the outcome each game. Our probability of winning the whole thing is better than everyone else bar one or two: I fully expect us to climb over the other contenders and be champions by mid-April.

Thing is this season for once so far we've not been the ones majorly screwed over by the fixture schedule so much, the teams with games in hand, could have those games in hand for a while yet, and when the bad weather comes 2 games could turn to 4, and hopefully itl be our rivals that have 4 game weeks instead of us, we've not got the Lincoln doubler header that usually destroys our season, so only half the injuries, might get lucky and get knocked out of the fa trophy early on, this has the potential to be our best second half of the season so far, could potentially get 50+ points

Quoted from WHYWONTYOULETMESIGNUP

Thing is this season for once so far we've not been the ones majorly screwed over by the fixture schedule so much, the teams with games in hand, could have those games in hand for a while yet, and when the bad weather comes 2 games could turn to 4, and hopefully itl be our rivals that have 4 game weeks instead of us, we've not got the Lincoln doubler header that usually destroys our season, so only half the injuries, might get lucky and get knocked out of the fa trophy early on, this has the potential to be our best second half of the season so far, could potentially get 50+ points

This. and the previous post; scruff of the neck, hello, we are grimsby town and this is goal number one in a series.
It's true, belief is everything you need as long as the players are there; belief gets them up for it and I am confident that if the team and PH feel the fans are with them, they will raise their game on a more consistent basis.
UTM

I've always felt that we are just ever so slightly off the pace for most of the time and that has led to two play off spots in the last two seasons. This season, we are nearer than ever but still not quite there yet. We need another regular goalscorer in my view and i'm hoping this Hamish lad is the missing ingredient or someone we have yet to sign in January. Barnet have more goals in their team than us and for me is the only difference at the moment.

One thing we do have in our favour is that most of the points we have dropped so far have not been against our main rivals. Three points is good but it's better against a frontrunner and we have Barnet to play twice yet.

I've always felt we are good for the play offs and i'll stick by that but a good second half to the season could take us all the way. The league is wide open, which is why i wish Hurst would take a few more chances sometimes.

Fortune favours the brave.

I agree. The manager and team not only have to play their way to promotion, but they need to think their way to it too. I think the whole club has an ethos of 'hoping for the best',  'hedging our bets' etc. I think we have to believe we can win the title and do whatever it takes to manifest that plan.

Quoted from grimsby pete

What has happened in the past is history,

All we need to do is Beat Barnet twice and get more points in the 2nd half of the season than anybody else,

Easy Peasy  

THIS. Although i like the stats (well done) for me i don't care hos many points we finish on aslong as we get 7 more points than barnet between now and the end of the season (and we stay above everyone else) we're a winner!

But like someone else has previously said and i said it at the beginning of the season. There are alot of teams wanting to hit not just the play offs but are aiming for top spot. This season is the toughest and closest it has ever been since I've kept an eye on the conference.

Quoted from GrimRob

The most remarkable stat of the season so far is that our last four games have had a double digit in the middle of the attendance figure: 3443,1881,3446, 2663. I reckon the odds of that happening in thoes specific games are 10,000-1

We need to identify and publicly shame the three who went to the third of those matches but not the first!

Quoted from MyDogsThoughts

I am really glad my glass is full: your half empty one must feel lighter by the second as you watch/wish it to evaporate before your eyes.

Half empty? Who said it had that much in it?  
Naturally pessimistic i am afraid, the table tells me one thing but my eyes tell me another.
So far this season i have not seen anything new to make me believe we are better equipped than last season, either squad, tactically or consistency wise.
Hopefully Saturdays change of formation and three points may open Hursts mind to the possibility of flexibility when it comes to selecting the team, however as he didnt seem impressed with how we played in the 3-1 win compared to the previous 0-2 loss then i wouldnt expect 4-4-2 to be a regular selection.
I will remain pessimistic until promotion is signed sealed and delivered, less heartache that way.

Good stats work. I suppose the other useful stat would be what points the 2nd place team tend to get. We may be off the pace compared to previous winners, but some of those title winners got many more points than they needed if that makes sense.

Quoted from MeanwoodMariner

Good stats work. I suppose the other useful stat would be what points the 2nd place team tend to get. We may be off the pace compared to previous winners, but some of those title winners got many more points than they needed if that makes sense.

I know what you mean but really the top teams did need those points. There comes a stage in most Conference seasons where Number One Spot teams become "invincible" or at least uncatchable. It's a psychological barrier for the rest of the league that appears to be rarely crossed. Very useful weapon for the top club though, so get the points in the bag and a good lead built up in February.

As long as( some one) looses the mentality of if we don`t win the game its not crucial to our standing, I will be happy

I agree with a number of good points made above regarding the next 23 games.

Barnet might well feel the pressure of being leaders to date.  They have started losing games and have had 2 players sent off when playing a better team.

There is no logical reason that results should fall away this season just because they have in previous seasons.

Barnet  faltering gives us as much chance as a few other clubs of finishing top. (Even a dropped point by them means that we could be above them if we beat them twice).    We might feel the pressure with Hurst, however, our stronger desire to get promoted could be the crucial difference.    We have a better team and squad than in previous years.  

Can't believe were exactly half way. We could estimate our points total and chances until the cows come home.  Let's start the second half of the season with 3 points away at Telford on Saturday. With Macclesfield playing Barnet and Woking playing Braintree (Never an easy opponent).  We could make up more ground yet.  UTM!

Quoted from GrimRob

The most remarkable stat of the season so far is that our last four games have had a double digit in the middle of the attendance figure: 3443,1881,3446, 2663. I reckon the odds of that happening in thoes specific games are 10,000-1

I think you are correct. One in ten chance of it happening in any given match, and the chance of it happened four times consecutively is  0.1 to the power of 4, i.e. 0.0001. That's one in 10,000.

All we need to do is attack
With this squad we have the quality
Halifax away for example this season, they scored, that drunk us off, we then dominated and did enough to win..
We don't need to set up each game to suit, we just need to set up to win
Come on Town!!