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KingstonMariner
March 17, 2015, 10:54pm
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I know there's an election predictions thread but this is slightly different.

The Ed Miller Band has come out and said he won't have a coalition with the SNP and the Tories are claiming a Labour government will still be propped up by Scots Nats anyway*. Am I the only one to be thinking that the Tories could just as easily be relying on SNP votes to get in power as Labour. As well as the prospect of them having to rely on UKIP!

So to support a Cameron government we could end up exiting both the EU and our 300+ year union with Scotland. Or is Cameron immune from doing deals with minority parties?

* I think this was a very smart move by the Geek - apart from refuting Tory Boy's claims - it sends a powerful message to Scots: Vote Sturgeon get Cameron.


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Maringer
March 17, 2015, 11:17pm
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I don't think there is any way in the world that the SNP (one of the properly left-wing parties remaining in the UK) would ever, ever, EVER go into government with the Tories.

The only possible way I could imagine something being agreed between the two parties is if the SNP were somehow promised another referendum quick sharp but I think this would mark the death knell of that particular Conservative government.

I agree that Ed said the right thing in his statement but I think Cameron will get away with his bluster as usual with the media reporting so far stacked in his benefit that they will fail to push the obvious question about which parties (UKIP) the Tories would enter into coalition with.

All being well, UKIP will only win a handful of seats in any case so they won't have any relevance in parliament.
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grimsby pete
March 18, 2015, 9:27am

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I can not see any major party going into partnership with SNP who want to break up the union.

If no overall majority can be made with other parties,

Whoever has the most seats will try and go alone,

Then have another election soon unless the rules has changed,

Is it a fixed 5 year parliament now ?


                             Over 36 years living in Suffolk but always a mariner.
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Maringer
March 18, 2015, 10:15am
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It wouldn't have to be a formal coalition. It would be a confidence and supply arrangement:

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/mar/16/politics-what-is-confidence-and-supply

I think that previous governments have operated with such agreements in the past though I'm not too sure how long they lasted!

The 5 year parliament is fixed in law but a vote of no confidence which passes in the house or a two-thirds vote in agreement is still enough to bring about a general election before the 5 years are up.

Personally, I'd expect to see the largest party form a minority government, backed up by confidence and supply but I would also then be surprised to see it last the full 5 year term.

God help us if the Tories get back in. The country will be left a shell if they are given another 5 years to continue to hack away at goverment and sell stuff off.
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Marinerz93
March 18, 2015, 9:47pm

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I think we are finally seeing that Ed is a better politician than Cameron and the points that Maringer was highlighting in the other political debate are being proven.

Even though it is early doors, Cameron is becoming his own worst enemy and has been found wanting on several key issues.


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ginnywings
March 18, 2015, 10:02pm

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I don't get the Ed Miller Band strategy. They have plenty to attack the Tories on but have seemingly been a bit reluctant. Perhaps they have been biding their time and have some spicy photos of Cameron in a gimp suit.

I think if dodgy Dave gets another 5 years to wreak havoc, then it will be time to start looking at property abroad.  
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Maringer
March 19, 2015, 7:29am
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The most amazing thing about yesterday's budget for me is that the plans state another 4 years of swingeing cuts followed by a sudden rollercoaster bump of spending of £28.5 billion in the final year of the parliament. This is just absolutely nuts - it is clear that this is just a gimmick so Labour can't claim (using certain statistics) that he plans government spending cuts to the level of the 1930s. If the Tories get into power, the chances of seeing this sudden surge in spending actually occurring in 4 years time are pretty much negligible, I'd have thought. In the interim, they are going to be cutting billions from welfare (but not from the pensioners, of course) which will cause untold misery. Number of children in poverty set to increase by another 700,000 over the next parliament according to the IFS. In the 6th wealthiest country in the world. And they've still not given any indication exactly where these Welfare cuts will be made in any case.

The front-loading of austerity measures we've already seen have undoubtedly cost us a huge amount of growth (there are estimates between 5 and 10% in total) over the past parliament and I wonder how much these proposed cuts would blunt the recovery we are seeing, such as it is.
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MarinerWY
March 19, 2015, 11:03am

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Quoted from KingstonMariner

* I think this was a very smart move by the Geek - apart from refuting Tory Boy's claims - it sends a powerful message to Scots: Vote Sturgeon get Cameron.


Not at all. I actually think it's a shame and possibly a real error to rule out a coalition with the SNP. As someone above said, the SNP are one of the only left-wing parties left, alongside the Greens and Plaid Cymru, but with much more seats than the latter two. For me the ideal outcome would be a Labour/SNP/Green/Plaid Cymru coalition: a Labour government that would be forced to shed some of it's hideous New Labour Tory-esque (or worse in some cases) policies on foreign wars, Trident renewal, civil liberties infringements, one-up-manship on supporting austerity... I don't think a coalition would necessarily have any implications for Scottish independence: they will have another vote at some point, but not in the next government, so soon after a loss.

In fact, it could even push for the regional devolution we were promised: if Scotland of just under 5 million people have self-determination, why can't the NUTS group of Yorkshire and Humber, which is over 6 million strong, or the North-West, which is 7 million strong? I'm sure none of us are too happy with the inequitable focus, both politically and financially, on the South East ([url=http://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2014/aug/07/london-gets-24-times-as-much-infrastructure-north-east-england]for example London gets 24 times as much spent on infrastructure than the North East, yet we pay into the same tax pot[/url])

I honestly don't know why we think a coalition is intrinsically a bad thing: it happens across Europe, as a result of more proportionate voting systems... and yes, sometimes two ideologically different parties have to work together, so I don't know why there is this forced attack on a potential coalition between Labour and SNP... IMO Labour should have said "if the electorate votes for no majority, for the benefit or running a stable government, we will be willing to work with other, similar parties the electorate has chosen, whilst maintaining our core principles as a party".
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KingstonMariner
March 20, 2015, 12:03am
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I'm not against coalitions MarinerWY. Especially when they involve left wing parties. The point I was trying to make was that Milliband was being smart by unequivocally ruling out an SNP-Labour coalition. He was telling disaffected voters in Scotland that if they vote SNP they won't be helping the cause at all. Fewer seats for Labour in Scotland would mean a better outlook for the Tories in Westminster. By not countenancing a formal coalition with the SNP Milliband was saying Scots couldn't have their cake and eat it - SNP MPs sitting in a left wing government.

To me the SNP, although they have socialist policies, would actually threaten the socialist cause in Britain. If they got their way they'd be off on their own leaving England to the tender mercies of Gideon and chums.


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For in our hearts the dreams are still the same.
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KingstonMariner
March 20, 2015, 12:08am
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Quoted from Maringer
I don't think there is any way in the world that the SNP (one of the properly left-wing parties remaining in the UK) would ever, ever, EVER go into government with the Tories.

The only possible way I could imagine something being agreed between the two parties is if the SNP were somehow promised another referendum quick sharp but I think this would mark the death knell of that particular Conservative government.

I agree that Ed said the right thing in his statement but I think Cameron will get away with his bluster as usual with the media reporting so far stacked in his benefit that they will fail to push the obvious question about which parties (UKIP) the Tories would enter into coalition with.

All being well, UKIP will only win a handful of seats in any case so they won't have any relevance in parliament.


I think the temptation would be too great for both parties (Cons and SNP) not to come to some understanding if the electoral arithmetic meant that the SNP could swing a vote of no confidence in a Tory government. The Nats would sell England (and Wales) down the river if it meant getting more of what they want. The Tories are always selling England down the river anyway so it won't be any skin off their noses too.

Socialists? Maybe. Nationalists. Definitely. Does that make them National Socialists  


Through the door there came familiar laughter,
I saw your face and heard you call my name.
Oh my friend we're older but no wiser,
For in our hearts the dreams are still the same.
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