Does form matter in the National League play-offs?

There have been 13 previous play-offs at this level since they were introduced in 2002/03. If we compare the form over the final 8 matches of teams going into the play-offs the team that won promotion has been ranked against their rivals as follows...

Where were the winners in the form ranking over the final 8 matches of the season?

1st - Won play-offs 3 times (75% win ratio in Final)
2nd - Won play-offs 3 times (50% win ratio in Final)
3rd - Won play-offs 4 times (50% win ratio in Final)
4th - Won play-offs 3 times (37.5% win ratio in Final)

Which suggests that overall form at the end of the season is irrelevant. However, when the in form team get to the Final they usually win.

Where are the finalists in the form ranking over the final 8 matches of the season?

1st - Finalist 4 times (30.8% win ratio in Semi-Final)
2nd - Finalist 6 times (46.2% win ratio in Semi-Final)
3rd - Finalist 8 times (61.5% win ratio in Semi-Final)
4th - Finalist 8 times (61.5% win ratio in Semi-Final)

The 2 "out of form" teams are more likely to reach the Play-Off Final than "in form" teams.

League Points in final 8 matches of the Play-Off Winners

The Play-off winners had the following points over the final 8 matches...

12 points - 1 time
13 points - 4 times
14 points - 2 times
15 points - 1 time
16 points - 1 time
17 points - 1 time
18 points - 1 time
19 points - 2 times

Average - 15.1 points.

Interestingly, 6 teams have gone into the play-offs having achieved 20 or more points in their final 8 matches. But none have won promotion. In fact Hereford won their final 11 matches in 2003/04 and failed to win promotion.

Also, 7 teams have gone into the play-offs having achieved 11 or less points in their final 8 matches. Again, none have won promotion.

Which suggests it is better to take average form into the play-offs than either of the 2 extremes.

Form of this season's Play-off teams

Over the last 7 matches (with 1 to go)...

Forest Green Rovers - 5 points
Grimsby Town - 8 points
Dover Athletic - 12 points
Braintree Town - 10 points
Tranmere Rovers - 13 points
Eastleigh - 12 points

It's hard to see Braintree failing to beat Altrincham and Dover are likely to beat hopelessly out of form F.G.R., so I would predict the 3 other play-off participants will go in with...

Forest Green Rovers - 5 points (in their final 8 league matches)
Dover Athletic - 15 points
Braintree Town - 13 points

We will go in with 8, 9 or 11 points in our final 8 matches- less than any team has achieved and gone on to win promotion. F.G.R. will obviously do the same.

Interestingly, Dover are likely to go in with the average points of a play-off winner (15) and Braintree with the most frequent points of a play-off winner (13- 4 times).

Basically, we are going to have to make history to win the play-offs given our current form.. Also, no team has won the play-offs with fewer than 81 points over the season. If we lose on Saturday we'll go in with 80 (and in 5th place in the league) and have to face F.G.R.

Basically, everything is pointing towards Dover or Braintree winning the play-offs.

Thanks good read.

With our poor form going into the play-offs, I'd like us to avoid playing Dover, Braintree and FGR.

I'm happy with anyone if we're away first. And FGR will do if we're home first.

Interestingly the bookies reach the opposite conclusion to you and make us and FGR clear favourites, they are obviously assuming we will not meet one another.

Quoted from GrimRob

Interestingly the bookies reach the opposite conclusion to you and make us and FGR clear favourites, they are obviously assuming we will not meet one another.

The bookies had us favourites in all but 1 league game this seasons (Cheltenham away).

Quoted from GollyGTFC

The bookies had us favourites in all but 1 league game this seasons (Cheltenham away).

So they were correct 50% of the time!

In my view the fact that Hereford failed to win promotion after going into the play offs in good form has absolutely nothing to do with Town, Dover or anyone else for that matter and the same goes for teams finishing here, there or anywhere. Its down to how teams play on the day plus that little bit of luck imo

Love it Golly. Statstastic!!

Apart from one game, all the matches between the PROBABLE play-off contenders have been extremely tight:-
                  BR     DOV    FGR    GY
Braintree             1-0       1-1     0-0
Dover       0-0                            1-1
FGR         1-0     3-1                  0-1
Town        0-1     1-0        1-1

Giving a mini-league table between those four, with the Dover v FGR game to play:-
                    P    W    D    L    F    A    PTS
Town           6     2     3     1     4    3     9
Braintree     6     2     3     1     3    2     9
FGR            5     2     2     1     6    4     8
Dover          5     0     2     3     2    6     2

    Dover may be the form team, but they have the worst record against the other contenders, I think this shows that the play-offs will probably be very tight
with few goals.

I don't understand any of this , are we going up then or what ?

Quoted from grimps

I don't understand any of this , are we going up then or what ?

Just had a look at my excel spread sheet and according to the Pythagorean theorem, Einstein's Theory of Relativity, Newton's 3 Laws of Motion and Drake's Equation on whether alien life exists in the Galaxy,

my answer is yes.


If we get to the play-off final and win.

Form does play a part, but for me the playoffs are more of a cup final (or 3) were other things have a bigger impact. e.g. experience, being able to handle the pressure, the ref, injuries etc.

I heard FGR had 3 or 4 players injured in their last game ;)

Quoted from Barrattstander

Apart from one game, all the matches between the PROBABLE play-off contenders have been extremely tight:-
                  BR     DOV    FGR    GY
Braintree             1-0       1-1     0-0
Dover       0-0                            1-1
FGR         1-0     3-1                  0-1
Town        0-1     1-0        1-1

Giving a mini-league table between those four, with the Dover v FGR game to play:-
                    P    W    D    L    F    A    PTS
Town           6     2     3     1     4    3     9
Braintree     6     2     3     1     3    2     9
FGR            5     2     2     1     6    4     8
Dover          5     0     2     3     2    6     2

    Dover may be the form team, but they have the worst record against the other contenders, I think this shows that the play-offs will probably be very tight
with few goals.

Think betting on our games to be under 2.5 goals is a safe one.

Agree in terms of the home leg. We've only scored 1 goal in the last three home games.

Quoted from Barrattstander

Apart from one game, all the matches between the PROBABLE play-off contenders have been extremely tight:-
                  BR     DOV    FGR    GY
Braintree             1-0       1-1     0-0
Dover       0-0                            1-1
FGR         1-0     3-1                  0-1
Town        0-1     1-0        1-1

Giving a mini-league table between those four, with the Dover v FGR game to play:-
                    P    W    D    L    F    A    PTS
Town           6     2     3     1     4    3     9
Braintree     6     2     3     1     3    2     9
FGR            5     2     2     1     6    4     8
Dover          5     0     2     3     2    6     2

    Dover may be the form team, but they have the worst record against the other contenders, I think this shows that the play-offs will probably be very tight
with few goals.

Interesting view.....

Interesting stuff, but some of those games took place months ago and are of little relevance now.

Basically it's down to us to play to our best and beat these minnows. Dover and Braintree have punched above their weight to get into the play offs and may not be able to sustain it when the chips are down.  FGR are rocky, and if not for that improbable 9 match winning streak at the start of the season probably wouldn.t have made it into the play offs.

We can do this. We just need to play to our strengths and hold our nerve.

Remember also when KIddiminster were on an amazing run since Christmas winning most of the last 20 odd games of the season, but still failed in the play offs.

Or again Cambridge, who lost form in the final weeks but then won the play offs?

The stats tell what has happened previously, but it means little one the whistle goes in the semi. it's simply a case of who performs, and who gets the breaks.

Irrelevant but just checked our form going into the 1998 play-offs and was very surprised to see how bad it was:

Last 8 league games we were 1 win, 4 draws, 3 defeats (7 points from 24). Turned out ok though  ;)

Hopefully Paul has the lads practising penalty kicks as I've got a feeling at one stage or another they will come into play again ..... Maybe JPP can do a Stuey Pearce !

Very interesting stats.  I wonder how many have failed to go up from the final where the fans were housed in the bogey end 🤔

We need to play at Tranmere like we need the points....
If we get a result (a win) we can go into these bloody playoffs with our tails up....
Its VGR (Someone we wouldnt have even heard of 10-15 years ago) and two part time (all be it decent) footballing sides.
We need to rise to the topamaongst these
The time is now so COME ON TOWN!!

Quoted from Golden fox

Hopefully Paul has the lads practising penalty kicks as I've got a feeling at one stage or another they will come into play again ..... Maybe JPP can do a Stuey Pearce !

And Macca to save one. In the last two visits to Wembley he has faced 10 and conceded ten.

Totally agree on penalties.  People like to think of them as a "lottery", but they can and should be prepared for like any other skill.  

Each and every one of the squad should practice penalties and be able to execute one or two stock penalty kicks.   The practice should also include the walk from the centre circle.  Players should choose which penalty they'll hit beforehand and not change their minds.  There's loads of research out there on it, but there are lots of things teams can do to improve their chances in a shootout.

Quoted from RonMariner

And Macca to save one. In the last two visits to Wembley he has faced 10 and conceded ten.

What's Andy Warrington's record at penalties like. Maybe we could do what Bristol Rovers did to us last season if we get to that stage in the final this season, if he has a decent record!

Quoted from HackneyHaddock

Totally agree on penalties.  People like to think of them as a "lottery", but they can and should be prepared for like any other skill.  

Each and every one of the squad should practice penalties and be able to execute one or two stock penalty kicks.   The practice should also include the walk from the centre circle.  Players should choose which penalty they'll hit beforehand and not change their minds.  There's loads of research out there on it, but there are lots of things teams can do to improve their chances in a shootout.

Agreed. To call it a lottery is just lazy.

Quoted from HackneyHaddock

Totally agree on penalties.  People like to think of them as a "lottery", but they can and should be prepared for like any other skill.  

Each and every one of the squad should practice penalties and be able to execute one or two stock penalty kicks.   The practice should also include the walk from the centre circle.  Players should choose which penalty they'll hit beforehand and not change their minds.  There's loads of research out there on it, but there are lots of things teams can do to improve their chances in a shootout.

Hurst strikes me as the sort of manager who would not take any notice of such research. There's research about how soon subs should be used if you're behind and the benefit of fresh attacking players coming on as subs in terms of scoring goals, but he ignores that.

Quoted from Meza

Very interesting stats.  I wonder how many have failed to go up from the final where the fans were housed in the bogey end 🤔

Unless by some kind of impossible quirk of fate we get Tranmere at Wembley we'll be in our Bogey end again  :-/

If anyone wants to read some of the research, take a look here:  http://www.penaltyshootouts.co.uk/research.html

Seems like the main recommendations are:

-  If you can, go first
-  Changing your mind leads to mistakes.  Pick your penalty and execute it.
-  Practice penalties while telling the keeper where you're going to hit it to improve confidence in being able to execute the skill
-  Practice the whole routine, the walk from the spot, the placing of the ball etc
-  Celebrate if you score, with the crowd and your teammates
-  Pause after the whistle; players who "react" to the whistle and shoot quickly, are more likely to miss

You can't replicate the pressure of the shootout in training, but if we take that as an excuse for not preparing, then golfers would never practice putting.  It's about being so well-drilled and taking away any potential barriers to scoring, such that the pressure is either minimised or overcome.

Play-off success is in my view mainly down to how well you play on the day, who wants it the most, who gets the breaks, luck and who gets the rub of the green from the officials.

Form going into the play-offs is overrated.

Remember  a few years ago Huddersfield (with Jordan Rhodes) faced Peterborough in a play-off final at Old Trafford. Huddersfield were something like 28 matches unbeaten.   They were clear favourites but lost 3-0, although there were some mitigating circumstances.  

  If you look at the number of penalties that are aimed at the centre of goal it would pay Macca to stand still and let the ball come to him. [ in other words pretend its a corner   :) ]

Quoted from golfer

  If you look at the number of penalties that are aimed at the centre of goal it would pay Macca to stand still and let the ball come to him. [ in other words pretend its a corner   :) ]

But not a Town corner?(icon_wink)

Quoted from RonMariner

And Macca to save one. In the last two visits to Wembley he has faced 10 and conceded ten.

You raise a very good point and I hope, if needed, he can rise to the challenge.

Against Wrexham at Wembley he just seemed to lol to one side as the ball went the other. Against Bristol Rovers he was a bit more determined but like you say still conceded all five. It must be nerve shredding facing spot kicks at Wembley but he could be our hero if it comes to it.  

As pointed out, all the games between us and the other contenders have been very close, with one goal either way usually deciding the game. That suggests very tight and cagey games to come. Much nerve shredding and fingernail biting on the horizon folks.

Quoted from ginnywings

As pointed out, all the games between us and the other contenders have been very close, with one goal either way usually deciding the game. That suggests very tight and cagey games to come. Much nerve shredding and fingernail biting on the horizon folks.

hopefully ( if the away leg is first) we can take a lead or draw back to BP. we always play better against open teams who attack

Quoted from lew chaterleys lover

You raise a very good point and I hope, if needed, he can rise to the challenge.

Against Wrexham at Wembley he just seemed to lol to one side as the ball went the other. Against Bristol Rovers he was a bit more determined but like you say still conceded all five. It must be nerve shredding facing spot kicks at Wembley but he could be our hero if it comes to it.  

Not half as nerve shredding as taking one.

I think you need to flap the arms, jump about, whatever you can to distract the taker.

It is incredible that all ten kicks against us hit the target. But committing to dive one way or an other gives you only a 33% chance of making a save even if you manage to get a hand on it. If the kick is the other side, or straight down the middle you are done for.

Still you would have expected at least one of those kicks to either miss the target of be saved.
  

This is all well and good but what I'm really bothered about is how it will affect our chances in the FA Trophy, has anyone analysed that?

U wot m8?  :K)

On a selfish sort of note I want to see the Mariners back where they belong, in the FL.
I don't want some team like Braintree Town coming up and being followed by a couple of Minis full of supporters.
Good luck in t'playoffs my fingers and toes are crossed for you.

Quoted from Spiritater

On a selfish sort of note I want to see the Mariners back where they belong, in the FL.
I don't want some team like Braintree Town coming up and being followed by a couple of Minis full of supporters.
Good luck in t'playoffs my fingers and toes are crossed for you.

We don't want to be playing them either and would much rather be beating you lot.  ;D

Quoted from Spiritater

On a selfish sort of note I want to see the Mariners back where they belong, in the FL.
I don't want some team like Braintree Town coming up and being followed by a couple of Minis full of supporters.
Good luck in t'playoffs my fingers and toes are crossed for you.

Actually, Village Green lay on free buses a free mini bus for their Green Army :)

Quoted from Spiritater

On a selfish sort of note I want to see the Mariners back where they belong, in the FL.
I don't want some team like Braintree Town coming up and being followed by a couple of Minis full of supporters.
Good luck in t'playoffs my fingers and toes are crossed for you.

One mini to many mate  :)

Just a thaught regarding the potential penalty kicks - would it be worth having Andy Warrington on the bench as a penalty kick specialist (aka Tim Krul)  ? Decent record back in the day and could give us an advantage in the physchological warfare .

Quoted from Golden fox

Just a thaught regarding the potential penalty kicks - would it be worth having Andy Warrington on the bench as a penalty kick specialist (aka Tim Krul)  ? Decent record back in the day and could give us an advantage in the physchological warfare .

Exactly what Bristol Rovers did by bringing on Steve Mildenhall, in added on time last season, however he was not needed as JPP blasted it out of his reach and over the bar. :'(

Would be an insult to Mckeown IMO, and totally undeserved. He's a great keeper. I have faith in his potential to save penalties if we get to that, and I don't care that he didn't save any last year. He's proved himself time and again, and to be fair to Bristol Rovers - all of their penalties were either very good with a couple of 'almost saved' by James. I wouldn't want to replace him with a much older, less agile goalkeeper coach.