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Beat the Bookies: Week 5

By: Rob Sedgwick
Date: 23/08/2005

WELCOME to Week 5 of "Beat the Bookies", our guide to football betting in and around the lower echelons of the Football League.

Home > 2005-2006 Season > Beat the Bookies > Week 5


Anyone who read last week's tip of Scunthorpe to beat Forest would have seen that Beat the Bookies is now officially "in the money" without having yet had a losing bet in the first four weeks! Unfortunately Scunthorpe only scoring one goal meant my chosen spread bet didn't pay anywhere near the return that a fixed odds away win would have done, but beggars can't be choosers.

This week there is no need to turn our attention any further than the fixture between Derby and Grimsby at Pride Park. bet365.com are offering 13/2 on Grimsby to win the game (in 90 mins). The Rams are odds-on favourites to win at 4/11, with the draw (and extra time) weighing in at 10/3. It would be a brave punter who backed Town to win, however, so we look elsewhere this week for the best value on the bookies' coupons.

Here I return to the earlier theme of the Grimsby goal scorer, and the bookies' under-assessment of Rob Jones' chances of scoring. bet365.com are offering a variety of odds on Jones to score. The Town defender weighs in at a whopping 50/1 to score the game's first or last goals, or 14/1 to score at all. I'd steer clear of the 50/1 for the simple reason that Derby are more likely to score and normally would plumb for 14/1.

Even better value, though, is bet365.com's odds on the first or last Grimsby goal scorer (i.e. discounting any Derby goals). Rob Jones is a staggering 33/1 to score the first or last Grimsby goal. It would seem fairly unlikely that Town manage to score 3, with Jones netting one of the middle goals, so backing Jones to score both the first and last Grimsby goals is virtually equivalent to a 16/1 bet that Jones will score - fantastic odds given that Rob Jones' head is the number one target for almost every corner and free kick, and has already found the net once this season. The bookies don't know that sat in their London offices but we do!

First/Last Grimsby Goalscorer
Michael Reddy 11/2
Martin Gritton 6/1
Calvin Andrew 6/1
Gary Cohen 15/2
Andy Parkinson 15/2
Gary Jones 8/1
Paul Ashton 11/1
Nick Hegarty 14/1
Tony Crane 20/1
Gary Croft 25/1
Jean-Paul Kamudimba 25/1
Terry Barwick 25/1
Tom Newey 25/1
Paul Bolland 25/1
Robert Jones 33/1
Glen Downey 50/1
John McDermott 50/1
Simon Ramsden 50/1
Justin Whittle 66/1
No Goal Scorer (Grimsby) 8/13

Odds courtesy of bet365.com.

Finally if you don't fancy Grimsby to score against Derby then you can still bet on Rob Jones to score the first/last Grimsby goal in the league at Barnet on Saturday. This time the price is 28/1 with bet365.com but still represents, in my view, great value for money.

RECOMMENDED BET OF THE WEEK:
Rob Jones to score the first/last goals against Derby (50% of stake on each)

Previous Bets (£10 per week)

DateBetOddsProfit/Loss
27/07Rushden to get relegated5/2In progress
03/08Sell Lincoln in League Two 60 Index13In progress
10/08Rob Jones to score v Chester12/1£0.00
17/08Buy Scunthorpe in the Mini Performance Index vs Forestbought@16
actual 35
+£11.97
Total +£11.97

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