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Beat the Bookies: Week 8
By: Rob Sedgwick
CARLISLE'S win over Cheltenham at the weekend meant I am back in profit, although the referee made me sweat by awarding a dodgy late penalty to Cheltenham to make the score 3-2!
Beat the Bookies is earlier than usual this week to take advantage of the opportunity to bet on the week's big televised game: Grimsby v Spurs. The fact that the match is televised means there are several additional bets on bet365.com, and the spread bookies will also be offering extra markets, which will be updated in running as well. These are all lots of opportunities to make some money on Town's big night!
Can Grimsby win? The Mariners have certainly claimed many scalps in this competition over the years, including top flight clubs Everton, Liverpool and Leicester, so it's not impossible, especially in a night game at Blundell Park with a hostile atmosphere and vocal crowd. One pointer is that Town were unlucky not to get at least a draw (in 90 mins) at the same stage against Charlton last season, and Town's side last season was inferior to this year's, especially the defence. I'd be inclined to go for the 5/1 win bet to cover the possibility of a Grimsby victory after 90 minutes has elapsed.
The other market which has caught my eye is the first (or last) Grimsby scorer (as opposed to first goal scorer from either team). I'd always bet on this market rather than the match first goal scorer for the simple reason that Spurs are more likely to score than Town.
|Jean-Paul Kamudimba Kalala||12/1|
|No Grimsby Scorer||4/5|
With Andrew not even in Town's squad any more and Gritton unlikely to start the market is generally overpriced and there are several players who are good value for money, not least Reddy, Gary Jones and Rob Jones. I've backed Rob Jones twice to score the first goal this season, and missed the two occasions where he has done - could it be third time lucky?! Town's best chance of scoring against Premiership opposition might come from set pieces, at which Rob Jones is a pivotal figure this season for the Mariners, so double the reason to back Town's lanky defender to find the net.
As with last week, there are two bets I am wavering between: Grimsby to win the game at 5/1, and Rob Jones to score the first Town goal at 28/1. Both are tempting but I have to pick one bet and will select Grimsby to beat Spurs (on the night) as my recommendation.
(Rob Jones to score and Town to win 1-0 is 370/1 with bet365.com incidentally!)
RECOMMENDED BET OF THE WEEK:|
Grimsby to beat Spurs (no draw)
Previous BetsÂ (Â£10 per week)
|27/07||Rushden to get relegated||5/2||In progress|
|03/08||Sell Lincoln in League Two 60 Index||13||In progress|
|10/08||Rob Jones to score v Chester||12/1||Â£0.00
||17/08||Buy Scunthorpe in the Mini Performance Index vs Forest||bought@16|
|+Â£11.97||24/08||Rob Jones to score v Derby||33/1||-Â£10.00||31/08||Northampton to beat Wycombe||2/1||-Â£10.00||13/09||Carlisle to beat Cheltenham||2/1||+Â£20.00||Total||Â ||+Â£11.97|
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