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Beat the Bookies: Week 8

By: Rob Sedgwick
Date: 18/09/2005

CARLISLE'S win over Cheltenham at the weekend meant I am back in profit, although the referee made me sweat by awarding a dodgy late penalty to Cheltenham to make the score 3-2!

Home > 2005-2006 Season > Beat the Bookies > Week 8

Beat the Bookies is earlier than usual this week to take advantage of the opportunity to bet on the week's big televised game: Grimsby v Spurs. The fact that the match is televised means there are several additional bets on, and the spread bookies will also be offering extra markets, which will be updated in running as well. These are all lots of opportunities to make some money on Town's big night!

For those wishing just to back Town, you can get 13/2 with over 90 minutes, or 5/1 with for Town to win somehow (either in 90 minutes, during extra time, or on penalties).

Can Grimsby win? The Mariners have certainly claimed many scalps in this competition over the years, including top flight clubs Everton, Liverpool and Leicester, so it's not impossible, especially in a night game at Blundell Park with a hostile atmosphere and vocal crowd. One pointer is that Town were unlucky not to get at least a draw (in 90 mins) at the same stage against Charlton last season, and Town's side last season was inferior to this year's, especially the defence. I'd be inclined to go for the 5/1 win bet to cover the possibility of a Grimsby victory after 90 minutes has elapsed.

The other market which has caught my eye is the first (or last) Grimsby scorer (as opposed to first goal scorer from either team). I'd always bet on this market rather than the match first goal scorer for the simple reason that Spurs are more likely to score than Town.

First Grimsby Scorer
Michael Reddy 5/1
Martin Gritton 11/2
Calvin Andrew 6/1
Gary Jones 6/1
Andy Parkinson 13/2
Gary Cohen 13/2
Paul Ashton 11/1
Jean-Paul Kamudimba Kalala12/1
Tony Crane 18/1
Gary Croft 22/1
Paul Bolland 25/1
Terry Barwick 22/1
Tom Newey 22/1
Robert Jones 28/1
Glen Downey 50/1
John McDermott 50/1
Simon Ramsden 50/1
Justin Whittle 50/1
No Grimsby Scorer 4/5

With Andrew not even in Town's squad any more and Gritton unlikely to start the market is generally overpriced and there are several players who are good value for money, not least Reddy, Gary Jones and Rob Jones. I've backed Rob Jones twice to score the first goal this season, and missed the two occasions where he has done - could it be third time lucky?! Town's best chance of scoring against Premiership opposition might come from set pieces, at which Rob Jones is a pivotal figure this season for the Mariners, so double the reason to back Town's lanky defender to find the net.

As with last week, there are two bets I am wavering between: Grimsby to win the game at 5/1, and Rob Jones to score the first Town goal at 28/1. Both are tempting but I have to pick one bet and will select Grimsby to beat Spurs (on the night) as my recommendation.

(Rob Jones to score and Town to win 1-0 is 370/1 with incidentally!)

Grimsby to beat Spurs (no draw)

Previous Bets (£10 per week)

27/07Rushden to get relegated5/2In progress
03/08Sell Lincoln in League Two 60 Index13In progress
10/08Rob Jones to score v Chester12/1£0.00
17/08Buy Scunthorpe in the Mini Performance Index vs Forestbought@16
actual 35
24/08Rob Jones to score v Derby33/1-£10.00
31/08Northampton to beat Wycombe2/1-£10.00
13/09Carlisle to beat Cheltenham2/1+£20.00
Total +£11.97

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