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Beat the Bookies: Week 11
By: Rob Sedgwick
LAST weekend's game between Grimsby and Wycombe suprisingly produced only one goal, even though on the night there could have been many more.
Nothing in sport is certain: all one can do is hope one's assessment of probabilities is better than that of the bookies.
The big event this week was to have been the England v Poland game, which has now shrunk in importance as both sides have already qualified for the finals. England have limped their way over the line in recent games, but with the pressure off will they do any better?
Poland, who have won eight out of their nine qualifying matches (albeit with the solitary defeat against England), are ranked a tempting 5/1 to win the fixture at Old Traford with bet365.com. The Poles have also scored 26 goals, conceding just 7 in their 9 games.
Although the match is not completely meaningless with seedings still be decided for Germany 2006, England are surely likely to come out their shells a bit and try and put together a more impressive performance in their last competitive fixture until next summer.
Although the Polish bet to win is tempting I fancy there to be a few goals on the night given the Eastern European's propensity for scoring goals and the return of England's talisman Wayne Rooney.
The recommended bet this week therefore is to bet on the total number of goals in the game (from either side). IGIndex have given the game a spread of 2.4-2.6 for total goals. I will be buying at 2.6 at Â£10 per goal. Three or more goals will return a profit; less than three goals will make a loss.
RECOMMENDED BET OF THE WEEK:|
Buy total goals in England v Poland
Previous BetsÂ (Â£10 per week)
|27/07||Rushden to get relegated||5/2||In progress|
|03/08||Sell Lincoln in League Two 60 Index||13||In progress|
|10/08||Rob Jones to score v Chester||12/1||Â£0.00
||17/08||Buy Scunthorpe in the Mini Performance Index vs Forest||bought@16|
|+Â£11.97||24/08||Rob Jones to score v Derby||33/1||-Â£10.00||31/08||Northampton to beat Wycombe||2/1||-Â£10.00||13/09||Carlisle to beat Cheltenham||2/1||+Â£20.00||19/09||Grimsby to beat Spurs||5/1||+Â£50.00||26/09||Hull to beat Norwich||16/5||-Â£10.00||05/10||Grimsby v Wycombe total goals||bought at 2.8|
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