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Beat the Bookies: Week 12
By: Rob Sedgwick
ENGLAND and Poland scored just enough times last week to enable my recommended bet of buying total goals to make a small profit.
Tuesday's LDV fixture with Morecambe is very hard to predict, not least because it is hard to know how seriously each side will take the match. One suspects that the Lancashire club will be slightly more motivated that the Mariners, given that it is a chance to play against league opposition. Morecambe are also doing well in the Conference, and bet365.com are offering 3/1 for a draw or 4/1 for an away win. It's hard to be enthusiastic about the 8/15 on offer with bet365.com for a second string Town side to triumph over 90 minutes. In any case the LDV Trophy is not a tournament to back favourites in!
Assuming that Town do get past Morecambe, can they go on to win the LDV Trophy? The Mariners were 40/1 with bet365.com to do just that, but the odds seem to have mysteriously disappeared this week, and therefore I cannot recommend it as a bet. Keep an eye out for the odds returning, though!
Looking down this week's coupon the outstanding value is 11/4 for Woking to beat Forest on offer with bet365.com. Forest have struggled all season away from home, only winning once, whereas Woking are flying in the Conference and have currently gone eight matches undefeated. No doubt the Cards will also have a packed house in on the night to take on their more illustrious opposition. Are the bookies once again taking into account the name of the two teams, rather than the form horse? We will see.
RECOMMENDED BET OF THE WEEK:|
Woking to beat Forest
Previous Bets (Â£10 per week)
|27/07||Rushden to get relegated||5/2||In progress|
|03/08||Sell Lincoln in League Two 60 Index||13||In progress|
|10/08||Rob Jones to score v Chester||12/1||Â£0.00
||17/08||Buy Scunthorpe in the Mini Performance Index vs Forest||bought@16|
|+Â£11.97||24/08||Rob Jones to score v Derby||33/1||-Â£10.00||31/08||Northampton to beat Wycombe||2/1||-Â£10.00||13/09||Carlisle to beat Cheltenham||2/1||+Â£20.00||19/09||Grimsby to beat Spurs||5/1||+Â£50.00||26/09||Hull to beat Norwich||16/5||-Â£10.00||05/10||Grimsby v Wycombe total goals||bought at 2.8|
|-Â£9.00||11/10||England v Poland total goals||bought at 2.6|
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