Question of the Week
How much would you accept for Omar Bogle?
|Cheers West Ham!|
Beat the Bookies: Week 28
By: Rob Sedgwick
WEST HAM's victory over Sunderland brought to an end a run of straight losses for Beat the Bookies! Very generous odds the bookies were offering at 8/15, although it took a while for the Hammers to score the first goal.
Last weekend was significant because the favourite team to win League Two switched from Wycombe to Northampton, after the Chairboys lost to Wrexham and the Cobblers motored into fourth spot just one point behind the leading trio. It looks like 3 out of the leading 5 or 6 will get the automatic promotion slots, and bet365.com reflect this in their odds of winning League Two.
The table below shows the present odds of winning the league with bet365.com, and the current form guide of each club.
|Team||Odds||Points from last 18|
An additional factor is the ease of the remaining fixtures, as can be seen in The Promotion Calculator. Of the fancied clubs, Wycombe look to have the easiest run-in, but their form has started to slip at a crucial time and all season have had a habit of dropping too many points. Town have strengthened their squad at a critical juncture, but the fact they have a few injuries and also have several new players to bed in means Grimsby represent some risk.
Northampton are the form horse, but the bookies have latched onto that and their tag of favourites reflects this. The Cobblers have also been heavily backed all season, and rarely have justified their price tag until recently.
This leaves just Carlisle, Orient and Peterborough. With Posh being seven points off the pace already, I would like to see them more like 20/1 before I was tempted. Orient's run-in looks quite tough. Therefore by a process of elimination I have decided Carlisle's price, form and run-in makes the Cumbrians the best value at the present moment.
RECOMMENDED BET OF THE WEEK:|
Carlisle to win League Two
Previous Bets (around Â£10 per week)
|27/07||Rushden to get relegated||5/2||In progress|
|03/08||Sell Lincoln in League Two 60 Index||bought at 13||In progress|
|10/08||Rob Jones to score v Chester||12/1||Â£0.00
||17/08||Buy Scunthorpe in the Mini Performance Index vs Forest||bought@16|
|+Â£11.97||24/08||Rob Jones to score v Derby||33/1||-Â£10.00||31/08||Northampton to beat Wycombe||2/1||-Â£10.00||13/09||Carlisle to beat Cheltenham||2/1||+Â£20.00||19/09||Grimsby to beat Spurs||5/1||+Â£50.00||26/09||Hull to beat Norwich||16/5||-Â£10.00||05/10||Grimsby v Wycombe total goals||bought at 2.8|
|-Â£9.00||11/10||England v Poland total goals||bought at 2.6|
|+Â£4.00||17/10||Woking to beat Forest||11/4||+Â£27.50||24/10||Grimsby to beat Newcastle||6/1||-Â£10.00||02/11||Bristol Rovers to beat Grimsby||10/3||+Â£33.33||08/11||Macclesfield to beat Grimsby||7/2||-Â£10.00||16/11||Tommy Mooney to score against Grimsby||5/4||-Â£10.00||23/11||Carlisle v Wycombe: buy total goals||bought at 2.9|
|-Â£9.50||29/11||Grays to beat Mansfield||9/5||-Â£10.00||06/12||Bristol Rovers to beat Grimsby||7/2||+Â£35.00||14/12||Wycombe to beat Bury||6/5||-Â£10.00||20/12||Various Xmas Upsets||various||-Â£11.50||29/12||Hull to beat Leeds||4/1||-Â£10.00||04/01||Arsenal not to beat Cardiff||9/2||-Â£10.00||11/01||Carlisle to beat Shrewsbury||7/5||-Â£10.00||18/01||Grimsby to beat Torquay||Evs||-Â£10.00||24/01||Cheltenham to beat Newcastle||5/1||-Â£10.00||31/01||West Ham to beat Sunderland||8/15||+Â£5.33||Total||+Â£27.13|
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