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Beat the Bookies: Week 28

By: Rob Sedgwick
Date: 09/02/2006

WEST HAM's victory over Sunderland brought to an end a run of straight losses for Beat the Bookies! Very generous odds the bookies were offering at 8/15, although it took a while for the Hammers to score the first goal.

Home > 2005-2006 Season > Beat the Bookies > Week 28

Last weekend was significant because the favourite team to win League Two switched from Wycombe to Northampton, after the Chairboys lost to Wrexham and the Cobblers motored into fourth spot just one point behind the leading trio. It looks like 3 out of the leading 5 or 6 will get the automatic promotion slots, and reflect this in their odds of winning League Two.

The table below shows the present odds of winning the league with, and the current form guide of each club.

TeamOddsPoints from last 18
Carlisle11/2 10
Leyton Orient8/110

An additional factor is the ease of the remaining fixtures, as can be seen in The Promotion Calculator. Of the fancied clubs, Wycombe look to have the easiest run-in, but their form has started to slip at a crucial time and all season have had a habit of dropping too many points. Town have strengthened their squad at a critical juncture, but the fact they have a few injuries and also have several new players to bed in means Grimsby represent some risk.

Northampton are the form horse, but the bookies have latched onto that and their tag of favourites reflects this. The Cobblers have also been heavily backed all season, and rarely have justified their price tag until recently.

This leaves just Carlisle, Orient and Peterborough. With Posh being seven points off the pace already, I would like to see them more like 20/1 before I was tempted. Orient's run-in looks quite tough. Therefore by a process of elimination I have decided Carlisle's price, form and run-in makes the Cumbrians the best value at the present moment.

Carlisle to win League Two

Previous Bets (around £10 per week)

27/07Rushden to get relegated5/2In progress
03/08Sell Lincoln in League Two 60 Indexbought at 13In progress
10/08Rob Jones to score v Chester12/1£0.00
17/08Buy Scunthorpe in the Mini Performance Index vs Forestbought@16
actual 35
24/08Rob Jones to score v Derby33/1-£10.00
31/08Northampton to beat Wycombe2/1-£10.00
13/09Carlisle to beat Cheltenham2/1+£20.00
19/09Grimsby to beat Spurs5/1+£50.00
26/09Hull to beat Norwich16/5-£10.00
05/10Grimsby v Wycombe total goalsbought at 2.8
actual 1
11/10England v Poland total goalsbought at 2.6
actual 3
17/10Woking to beat Forest11/4+£27.50
24/10Grimsby to beat Newcastle6/1-£10.00
02/11Bristol Rovers to beat Grimsby10/3+£33.33
08/11Macclesfield to beat Grimsby7/2-£10.00
16/11Tommy Mooney to score against Grimsby5/4-£10.00
23/11Carlisle v Wycombe: buy total goalsbought at 2.9
actual 1
29/11Grays to beat Mansfield9/5-£10.00
06/12Bristol Rovers to beat Grimsby7/2+£35.00
14/12Wycombe to beat Bury6/5-£10.00
20/12Various Xmas Upsetsvarious-£11.50
29/12Hull to beat Leeds4/1-£10.00
04/01Arsenal not to beat Cardiff9/2-£10.00
11/01Carlisle to beat Shrewsbury7/5-£10.00
18/01Grimsby to beat TorquayEvs-£10.00
24/01Cheltenham to beat Newcastle5/1-£10.00
31/01West Ham to beat Sunderland8/15+£5.33
Total +£27.13

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