Beat the Bookies: Week 13

By: Rob Sedgwick
Date: 16/10/2006

NEVER bet against Chelsea! The odds are always so tempting for their opponents to win, but the Blues just keep grinding out result after result. Last week's tip of Reading to beat Chelsea went the same way as all the other Chelsea to lose bets. One day!

The first round of the Johnstone Paint Trophy is traditionally one of the finest betting nights of the year for the simple fact that the stronger teams especially field incredibly weakened teams and the form book goes out the window. In years gone buy the bookies' odds have never reflected this fact and backing the smaller teams to win has been highly profitable. Last year's tip of Woking to beat Forest was one such example.

However this year the are no Conference sides in the JPT, and the odds of upsets are consequently not quite as long. Also teams are obliged to field 6 regular first team players this season. Nevertheless there are still a few upsets worth backing.

First and foremost is Grimsby's trip to Lincoln, where seemingly no Town fan gives us a prayer. The bookies odds of a Grimsby win are not that great, however, with Town rated just 13/5 to topple the in-form Imps with bet365.com. I fancy Town to do well and maybe win but not at those odds.

Other possible upsets are Boston to win at Brighton (7/2), Brentford to win at Northampton 5/2, Doncaster to win at Huddersfield 5/2 and Bury to beat Tranmere at home 9/4. Off those I fancy Bury to win at home most of all. It's never an easy place to go to, especially in the cup.

Alternatively you may well believe the bookies have overreacted and gone the way of the outsiders too much, in which case back Lincoln at 5/6 to beat Grimsby with bet365.com.

In the weekend's matches one match which stands out is Wycombe v Peterborough, where Posh are rated 11/4 with bet365.com for an away win. This is well worth backing, as Peterborough have an excellent away record under Keith Alexander and are more than capable of coming away with all three points.

Recommended Bets

• 1. Bury to beat Tranmere (9/4 with bet365.com).
• 2. Peterborough to beat Wycombe (11/4 with bet365.com).

Previous Bets (1 or 2 bets, around £10 per week each)

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