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Beat the Bookies: Week 20
By: Rob Sedgwick
FAILURE last week by Brentford and Bury to win their games meant we didn't win with either of our tips last week, but both teams did better than expected vindicating our long odds selections to some extent.
In one sense Grimsby are unpredictable at the moment, in another they are fairly predictable in that they generally lose to teams above them in the table. Those below them they have a fairly good record against this season, and they seem to be settling at about 20th position in the table with about half the games played. Lincoln, best priced 23/10 to beat Grimsby on Saturday, have lost their last two games but had won three out of four before that. 11/10 for a home win does not look especially good value, but there is better value on the coupon this weekend than either of the other two outcomes.
Rochdale are flying at the moment and have won four out of their last five matches. They have a local derby at Saturday against Macclesfield who are at the bottom of the form league having just two points from the last five games. Dale are a generous 6/4 with Betfred to record a fourth consecutive game against a team in terrible form. Do not miss out!
Another team who are in fine form at the moment are Accrington Stanley, who as we saw on Boxing Day have two excellent strikers and look a solid if unspectacular outfit. Their away form is excellent too and should be enough to see off the challenge of lowly Mansfield at Field Mill. Stanley are also best priced at a very backable 15/8 to pick up another three points on their travels.
Those two bets alone are about as good as they get in League Two but next best are high flying Chesterfield (19/10) to win at a Barnet side who have lost their last four games. This season's surprise package Morecambe are 15/8 to beat big spending Peterborough at home. Under normal circumstances these two games would also be worthy of consideration, but with two outstanding bets this week we have no hesitation in recommending these. Those looking for longer odds than the single prices could contemplate combination bets on all four teams in what looks like a good week for betting.
- 1. Rochdale to beat Macclesfield (6/4, Betfred).
- 2. Accrington Stanley to beat Mansfield (15/8, bet365).
Previous Bets (1 or 2 bets, around £10 per week each of Rob's own money)
|06/08||Accrington to be relegated||7/2||Ongoing|
|06/08||Wycombe to be promoted||10/3||Ongoing|
|17/08||Sunderland to beat Wigan||2/1||-£10.00|
|21/08||Shrewsbury to beat MK Dons||11/4||-£10.00|
|21/08||Bury to beat Wycombe||10/3||-£10.00|
|29/08||Grimsby to beat Shrewsbury||11/4||-£10.00|
|29/08||Chester to beat Rotherham||3/1||-£10.00|
|05/09||Mansfield to beat Peterborough||3/1||-£10.00|
|05/09||Mulligan or Bennett first goal v Accrington||3/1||-£5.00|
|11/09||Stockport to beat Grimsby||13/8||-£10.00|
|11/09||Lincoln to beat Darlington||4/1||-£10.00|
|18/09||Lincoln to draw with Grimsby||11/5||-£10.00|
|18/09||Morecambe to beat Peterborough||5/1||-£10.00|
|25/09||Hull to beat Chelsea||6/1||-£10.00|
|25/09||Notts County to draw with Chesterfield||9/4||-£10.00|
|04/10||Grimsby to beat Peterborough||4/1||-£10.00|
|04/10||Barnet to beat Stockport||3/1||+£30.00|
|11/10||Bury to beat Notts County||5/2||+£25.00|
|11/10||Grimsby to be relegated||9/1||Ongoing|
|16/10||Russia to beat England||11/5||+£22.00|
|16/10||South Africa to beat England||2/5||+£4.00|
|23/10||Bury to beat Macclesfield||21/10||-£10.00|
|23/10||Wrexham to beat Notts County||5/2||-£10.00|
|01/11||Bradford to beat Brentford||5/4||-£10.00|
|08/11||Carlisle to win by 2 or more goals||13/10||-£10.00|
|08/11||Dagenham to get relegated||4/1||Ongoing|
|15/11||Grimsby to beat Morecambe||13/10||-£10.00|
|15/11||Barnet to beat Shrewsbury||9/4||-£10.00|
|19/11||Carlisle to beat Grimsby||13/10||-£10.00|
|19/11||Croatia to beat England||9.6||+£81.71|
|28/11||Havant and Waterlooville to beat Notts County||6/1||+£60.00|
|06/12||Brentford to beat Grimsby||11/10||-£10.00|
|06/12||Wrexham to beat Dagenham||2/1||-£10.00|
|11/12||Morecambe to beat Wycombe||5/2||-£10.00|
|11/12||Brentford to beat Wrexham||5/2+£25.00|
|18/12||Bury to beat Chester||10/3||-£10.00|
|18/12||Brentford to beat MK Dons||8/1||-£10.00|
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