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Beat the Bookies: Week 2

By: Rob Sedgwick
Date: 15/08/2008

SO now we have seen what all 24 teams are capable of doing over the course of the last couple of games and a few embryonic opinions are no doubt germinating in the part of our brains devoted to football.

Home > 2008-2009 Season > Beat the Bookies > Week 2

Once again we're restricting our selections this week to matches between the teams who were in League Two last season. Until the new teams have played around five or so games they are fairly unknown quantities.

Bradford got off to a good start in the league with a win over Notts County whereas Macclesfield were thrashed by Shrewsbury. However their roles were reversed in the Carling Cup when Bradford were thumped 4-0 by neighbours Huddersfield and Macclesfield beat Blackpool 2-0. Macclesfield have a good home record but the Bantams will be going there looking for three points, which they managed to collect last season. City can be backed at 13/10 to repeat their achievement last season.

Rochdale have failed to score in their two games so far and face a Barnet side who have lost both their games so far this season. Barnet will probably travel to Spotland looking for a draw, and with Rochdale's strikeforce not firing on all cylinders there might not be many goals in the encounter. Barnet are available at 4/1 to cause an upset.

Chesterfield are another side who impressed in their opening game, but the bookies have overcooked their odds to beat dark horses Bury at home at the weekend. Chesterfield have been made as low as 4/5 to beat the in-form Shakers, who could at least grab a draw.

Rotherham look the pick of the three negative points sides, and should win at Morecambe at the weekend to get them closer to zero points. The Millers are a generous 21/10 to come up with goods.

Grimsby have had a solid start and travel to play a Brentford side who have lost both their games. Town should be good to pick up at least a draw (12/5) and may even go the whole hog and grab all three points (11/4).

Chester have been woeful in their two games to date, but face a Wycombe side who themselves got thrashed on Wednesday by Birmingham. There's a temptation to write off Chester, but no doubt their pride will have been stung in the maulings by Dagenham and Leeds, and the Chairboys could face the backlash. Chester are 12/5 to win at home, a price worth considering for any team winning at home in League Two.

This season we will be trying out three different betting strategies:

  • Fixed Odds - as per last year
  • Spread Betting on the Mini Performance Index with IG Index (25 points for a win, 10 for a draw, 10 for a goal)
  • The Monkey (betting on Town to win each game 3-1, i.e. the complete absence of any betting strategy).

Recommended Fixed Odds Bets

  • 1. Bradford to win at Macclesfield (13/10, bet365))
  • 2. Rotherham to win at Morecambe (21/10, bet365))

Recommended Spread Bet

  • Rochdale v Barnet: Sell Rochdale mini-performance (31,

The Monkey's Bet

  • Grimsby to win 3-1 (33/1, bet365)

Previous Fixed Odds Bets (1 or 2 bets, around £10 per week each of Rob's own money)

06/08Rochdale to beat Grimsby17/10-£10.00
06/08Macclesfield to beat Shrewsbury4/1-£10.00
Total -£20.00

Previous Spread Bets (1 bet, around £10 per week each of Rob's own money)

06/08Brentford mini-performance at Bury20S0+£20.00
Total +£20.00

Previous Monkey Bets (£10 per week of the Monkey's pretend money)

06/08Grimsby to win 3-118/10-£10.00
Total £10

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