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Beat the Bookies: Week 5

By: Rob Sedgwick
Date: 04/09/2008

BEAT the bookies came very close last week to a clean sweep. Sadly Rotherham could only draw at Brentford, but the other two teams won, including an amazing 5-1 victory for Chester!

Home > 2008-2009 Season > Beat the Bookies > Week 5

We have been consistently saying that Dagenham will do poorly this season. However they have now strung together enough decent results to be taken seriously this season. In Brentford v Dagenham the bookies make the Bees overwhelming favourites to win. However Brentford's home record is not great, and the Daggers have already beaten them just two days ago in the JPT competition. Although that was at Dagenham, 12/5 for an away win looks good value.

Chesterfield have lost both their home games in League Two, and also lost to Town in the JPT on penalties. They now face Rotherham, who have started the season well, and are well on the way to recovering their points deficit already. All that said 12/5 for an away win looks good value.

There's no need really to look beyond these two games this week. However for those looking for a good home bet then look no further than Chester v Bury. 19/10 for a side to win at home, when their last result was a 5-1 victory has to be worthy of consideration. How much the 5-1 victory says about Barnet and how much of a Chester revival it signals is for you to decide, and there is no doubt that Bury will provide a much sterner test than the London strugglers. Chester though have the attacking players to score quite a few goals this year, and they therefore manage to win a few games this season even if they do leak goals at the other end.

Gillingham are overwhelming favourites to beat Town at Priestfield. The Mariners though have managed two tough away draws in the last few days, and may fancy getting a point at Gillingham to extend their unbeaten run to three games away from Blundell Park. Grimsby can be backed at 11/10 in the Asian Handicap with bet365, at a handicap of +0.5 goals. This means that your bet wins should Town win or draw, not bad for odds against.

This season we will be trying out three different betting strategies:

  • Fixed Odds - as per last year
  • Spread Betting on the Mini Performance Index with IG Index (25 points for a win, 10 for a draw, 10 for a goal)
  • The Monkey (betting on Town to win each game 3-1, i.e. the complete absence of any betting strategy).

Recommended Fixed Odds Bets

  • 1. Dag & Red to beat Brentford (12/5, bet365))
  • 2. Rotherham ro beat Chesterfield (21/10, bet365))

Recommended Spread Bet

  • Chesterfield v Rotherham - Buy Rotherham (23,

The Monkey's Bet

  • Grimsby to win 3-1 (40/1, bet365)

Previous Fixed Odds Bets (1 or 2 bets, around £10 per week each of Rob's own money)

06/08Rochdale to beat Grimsby17/10-£10.00
06/08Macclesfield to beat Shrewsbury4/1-£10.00
15/08Bradford to win at Macclesfield13/10+£13.00
15/08Rotherham to win at Morecambe21/10+£21.00
19/08Lincoln to win at Wycombe15/4-£10.00
19/08Port Vale to beat Dag & Red21/10-£10.00
28/08Chester to beat Barnet17/10+£17.00
28/08Rotherham to beat Brentford-£10.00
Total +£1.00

Previous Spread Bets (Around 1 bet per week each of Rob's own money)

06/08Bury v Brentford: Brentford mini performance20S0+£20.00
15/08Rochdale v Barnet: Rochdale mini-performance31S55-£24.00
19/08Rotherham v Chester: Buy Rotherham mini-performance38B55+£17.00
28/08Rochdale v Bury: Sell Rochdale mini-performance38B20+£8.00
Total +£21.00

Previous Monkey Bets (£10 per week of the Monkey's pretend money)

15/08Grimsby to win 3-133/1-£10.00
06/08Grimsby to win 3-118/1-£10.00
19/08Grimsby to win 3-122/1-£10.00
28/08Grimsby to win 3-133/1-£10.00
Total -£40.00

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