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Midweek Beat the Bookies Special

By: Rob Sedgwick
Date: 07/10/2008

SHREWSBURY narrowly avoided winning at Darlington at the weekend, but at least Brentford managed to overcome Macclesfield at Griffin Park to ensure only a small loss overall.

Home > 2008-2009 Season > Beat the Bookies > Midweek Special


The Johnstone Paint Trophy always represents a good betting opportunity as it throws up some strange results, especially in the early rounds. Teams who are targetting promotion sometimes do not make it a priority, the players and fans probably are sometimes not that bothered about it, attendances are low, and managers often rest players - although the rules prevent wholescale changes. Whatever the reason it's not a night to back sides which are odds on.

Here's a few matches we have singled out this week.

Wycombe v Shrewsbury. Both teams have promotion from League Two in their sites, and neither team loses much. The match could go either way and could easily be a draw. However the price for an away win looks too high at 9/4.

Chester v Morecambe. Both teams draw a lot but Chester came unstuck at home at the weekend after a good run of results. As this is a local derby the price for an away win looks too high at 2/1. 12/5 for a draw is also worth a punt.

Scunthorpe v Grimsby. On paper Town have no chance at all against a Scunthorpe side on a terrific run. However the fact that it's the JPT, the boost for Grimsby by the appointment of Mike Newell, and the chance to impress the watching new manager, all skew the odds more in Town's favour. Grimsby are a whopping 6/1 to win this tie and it's a chance too good to turn down

Peterborough v Dagenham. Unlike the Grimsby game, Dagenham are an in form away side and score lots of goals. The bookies appear to have written the Daggers off because are the league they are from and their small club status. Peterborough obviously are doing well and scoring lots of goals themselves but 5/1 for an away win looks the bet of the night.

Rotherham v Leeds. Wednesday night represents another great chance for a League Two side to take a scalp. Rotherham, still in the Carling Cup, have won plenty of cup games already this season, and this home game represents another great opportunity against a Leeds side desperate to get promoted now they are not burdened by a points deduction. 11/4 is a great chance for an upset.

There are so many good betting opportunities this week that it's difficult to select just two. However why not just go for the two fattest birds and select the pair with the longest odds,


This season we will be trying out three different betting strategies:

  • Fixed Odds - as per last year
  • Spread Betting on the Mini Performance Index with IG Index (25 points for a win, 10 for a draw, 10 for a goal)
  • The Monkey (betting on Town to win each game 3-1, i.e. the complete absence of any betting strategy).


Recommended Fixed Odds Bets

  • 1. Grimsby beat Scunthorpe (6/1, bet365))
  • 2. Dagenham beat Peterborough (5/1, bet365))

Recommended Spread Bet

  • No bet this week.

The Monkey's Bet

  • Grimsby to win 3-1 (80/1, bet365)

Previous Fixed Odds Bets (1 or 2 bets, around £10 per week each of Rob's own money)

DateBetOddsProfit/Loss
30/09Shrewsbury beat Darlington2/1-£10.00
30/09Brentford beat Macclesfield8/11+£7.27
24/09Bradford beat Shrewsbury3/1-£10.00
24/09Rotherham beat Dag & Red3/1-£10.00
17/09Dagenham to beat Wycombe3/1-£10.00
17/09Macclesfield to beat Port Vale7/2+£35.00
09/09Rotherham to beat Rochdale11/10-£10.00
09/09Port Vale to beat Darlington11/4-£10.00
04/09Dag & Red to beat Brentford12/5-£10.00
04/09Rotherham to beat Chesterfield21/10-£10.00
28/08Chester to beat Barnet17/10+£17.00
28/08Rotherham to beat Brentford21/10-£10.00
19/08Lincoln to win at Wycombe15/4-£10.00
19/08Port Vale to beat Dag & Red21/10-£10.00
15/08Bradford to win at Macclesfield13/10+£13.00
15/08Rotherham to win at Morecambe21/10+£21.00
06/08Rochdale to beat Grimsby17/10-£10.00
06/08Macclesfield to beat Shrewsbury4/1-£10.00
Total -£36.73

Previous Spread Bets (Around 1 bet per week each of Rob's own money)

DateBetPriceBuy/SellActualProfit/Loss
24/09Accrington v Rochdale - Sell Accrington mini-performance2110S+£11.00
17/09Chester v Shrewsbury - Buy Shrewsbury mini-performance3020S-£10.00
09/09Grimsby v Chester - Buy Chester mini-performance21B55+£34.00
04/09Chesterfield v Rotherham: Buy Rotherham mini performance23S0-£23.00
28/08Rochdale v Bury: Sell Rochdale mini-performance38B20+£8.00
19/08Rotherham v Chester: Buy Rotherham mini-performance38B55+£17.00
15/08Rochdale v Barnet: Sell Rochdale mini-performance31S55-£24.00
06/08Bury v Brentford: Sell Brentford mini performance20S0+£20.00
Total +£33.00

Previous Monkey Bets (£10 per week of the Monkey's pretend money)

DateBetOddsProfit/Loss
30/09Grimsby to win 3-140/1-£10.00
24/09Grimsby to win 3-116/1-£10.00
17/09Grimsby to win 3-133/1-£10.00
09/09Grimsby to win 3-128/1-£10.00
04/09Grimsby to win 3-140/1-£10.00
28/08Grimsby to win 3-133/1-£10.00
19/08Grimsby to win 3-122/1-£10.00
15/08Grimsby to win 3-133/1-£10.00
06/08Grimsby to win 3-118/1-£10.00
Total -£90.00

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