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Beat the Bookies: Week 10

By: Rob Sedgwick
Date: 09/10/2008

TOWN could well have beaten Scunny, it just wasn't to be. However Dagenham's win at Peterborugh ensured a profitable midweek for Beat the Bookies, the biggest winner of the season so far.

Home > 2008-2009 Season > Beat the Bookies > Week 10

In a way Grimsby's defeat at Scunthorpe is good news because it disguises the fact from the bookies that we may be on the verge of a revival under a new manager, which only those who followed the performance would know. Grimsby will therefore could well be good value to back for the next few games at least. This weekend they face leaders Wycombe at home. Town's recent record is so abysmal that Grimsby are 11/4 to win a league game at Blundell Park. Unthinkable not so long ago! With a new manager on board that's a bet which is definitely worth pursuing.

Elsewhere in League Two Bradford have not won for a couple of games, but Accrington's recent record is terrible and the Bantams should be good enough to come away from the Crown Ground with all three points. City can be backed at 11/10 for an away win.

Dagenham are flying at the moment, but the midweek cup victory over Peterborough may have affected their small squad. Their opponents Barnet did not play in midweek and therefore have the advantage of a few days extra rest. The fact that the game is on a Friday night makes this even more of a factor. Dagenham will still more likely than not to win, but the chances of them being wrongfooted by the Bees are considerably greater than the bookies have allowed for. Barnet are available on Sky Bet at 11/2.

For those looking for shorter odds the best value home is Chesterfield v Chester. Chester's good recent run came to an end last week at home to lowly Lincoln, the only problem is Chesterfield have only picked up 1 point from 4 games. However those games were all against decent sides, and the Spireites should be good enough to see off Chester at 10/11 longest odds,

This season we will be trying out three different betting strategies:

  • Fixed Odds - as per last year
  • Spread Betting on the Mini Performance Index with IG Index (25 points for a win, 10 for a draw, 10 for a goal)
  • The Monkey (betting on Town to win each game 3-1, i.e. the complete absence of any betting strategy).

Recommended Fixed Odds Bets

  • 1. Grimsby beat Wycombe (11/4, bet365))
  • 2. Barnet to beat Dagenham (9/2, Sky Bet)

Recommended Spread Bet

  • Accrington v Bradford (Sell Accrington, 19) at

The Monkey's Bet

  • Grimsby to win 3-1 (33/1, bet365)

Previous Fixed Odds Bets (1 or 2 bets, around £10 per week each of Rob's own money)

06/10Grimsby beat Scunthorpe6/1-£10.00
06/10Dagenham beat Peterborough5/1+£50.00
30/09Shrewsbury beat Darlington2/1-£10.00
30/09Brentford beat Macclesfield8/11+£7.27
24/09Bradford beat Shrewsbury3/1-£10.00
24/09Rotherham beat Dag & Red3/1-£10.00
17/09Dagenham to beat Wycombe3/1-£10.00
17/09Macclesfield to beat Port Vale7/2+£35.00
09/09Rotherham to beat Rochdale11/10-£10.00
09/09Port Vale to beat Darlington11/4-£10.00
04/09Dag & Red to beat Brentford12/5-£10.00
04/09Rotherham to beat Chesterfield21/10-£10.00
28/08Chester to beat Barnet17/10+£17.00
28/08Rotherham to beat Brentford21/10-£10.00
19/08Lincoln to win at Wycombe15/4-£10.00
19/08Port Vale to beat Dag & Red21/10-£10.00
15/08Bradford to win at Macclesfield13/10+£13.00
15/08Rotherham to win at Morecambe21/10+£21.00
06/08Rochdale to beat Grimsby17/10-£10.00
06/08Macclesfield to beat Shrewsbury4/1-£10.00
Total +£3.27

Previous Spread Bets (Around 1 bet per week each of Rob's own money)

24/09Accrington v Rochdale - Sell Accrington mini-performance2110S+£11.00
17/09Chester v Shrewsbury - Buy Shrewsbury mini-performance3020S-£10.00
09/09Grimsby v Chester - Buy Chester mini-performance21B55+£34.00
04/09Chesterfield v Rotherham: Buy Rotherham mini performance23S0-£23.00
28/08Rochdale v Bury: Sell Rochdale mini-performance38B20+£8.00
19/08Rotherham v Chester: Buy Rotherham mini-performance38B55+£17.00
15/08Rochdale v Barnet: Sell Rochdale mini-performance31S55-£24.00
06/08Bury v Brentford: Sell Brentford mini performance20S0+£20.00
Total +£33.00

Previous Monkey Bets (£10 per week of the Monkey's pretend money)

06/10Grimsby to win 3-180/1-£10.00
30/09Grimsby to win 3-140/1-£10.00
24/09Grimsby to win 3-116/1-£10.00
17/09Grimsby to win 3-133/1-£10.00
09/09Grimsby to win 3-128/1-£10.00
04/09Grimsby to win 3-140/1-£10.00
28/08Grimsby to win 3-133/1-£10.00
19/08Grimsby to win 3-122/1-£10.00
15/08Grimsby to win 3-133/1-£10.00
06/08Grimsby to win 3-118/1-£10.00
Total -£100.00

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