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Beat the Bookies: Week 11

By: Rob Sedgwick
Date: 15/10/2008

LAST weekend was all about late goals. Wycombe's late equaliser cost Beat the Bookies a handseome win. However Bradford's three late goals against Accrington saved almost as much money and averted a very expensive weekend.

Home > 2008-2009 Season > Beat the Bookies > Week 11


Town were much improved last weekend against Wycombe at Blundell Park and almost won. Their next challenge is if anything though even harder. Exeter have been flying recently: they have won their last three games and scored eight goals in the process. 4/1 is not a generous enough price for a first Town win in our opinion, although a draw at 5/2 may be worthy of consideration, as may be an Asian Handicap at 37/40, which will pay out for an Grimsby win or a draw.

Aldershot v Brentford. Brentford have been excellent this season, and are a well organised side who are hard to beat. They face the short trip to League Two newcomers Aldershot, whose home form is impressive, but they have not won for three games. Brentford 19/10 on the other hand have hardly lost a game this season, yet Aldershot have been made the clear favourites, which feels wrong. The Bees should be able to pick up three points in what is practically a local derby just south of the capital.

Chester v Port Vale. Chester's mini recovery looks to have come to an end, whilst Port Vale have started one of their own since a change of manager, beating Shrewsbury away last week. If the trend continues an away win looks a certainty.

Luton v Accrington Stanley. Luton need to go for a win in every game and this match against Accrington at home should be a definite three points against one of the poorest sides in the league.

Bradford v Gillingham. This looks like one of the best value home wins 5/6 in the division. Gillingham, whilst excellent at Priestfield, do not travel well, and should struggle in front of the enormous crowds at Valley Parade.

Notts County v Macclesfield. Another home banker at a very tempting 10/11. Macclesfield are one of the poorest sides in the league and County should be able to overcome them at Meadow Lane.


This season we will be trying out three different betting strategies:

  • Fixed Odds - as per last year
  • Spread Betting on the Mini Performance Index with IG Index (25 points for a win, 10 for a draw, 10 for a goal)
  • The Monkey (betting on Town to win each game 3-1, i.e. the complete absence of any betting strategy).


Recommended Fixed Odds Bets

  • 1. Brentford beat Aldershot (19/10, bet365))
  • 2. Port Vale to beat Chester (2/1, Paddy Power)

Recommended Spread Bet

  • Rotherham v Barnet - Sell Barnet mini-performance (14) at www.igsport.com

The Monkey's Bet

  • Grimsby to win 3-1 (40/1, bet365)

Previous Fixed Odds Bets (1 or 2 bets, around £10 per week each of Rob's own money)

DateBetOddsProfit/Loss
09/10Grimsby beat Wycombe11/4-£10.00
09/10Barnet to beat Dagenham9/2-£10.00
06/10Grimsby beat Scunthorpe6/1-£10.00
06/10Dagenham beat Peterborough5/1+£50.00
30/09Shrewsbury beat Darlington2/1-£10.00
30/09Brentford beat Macclesfield8/11+£7.27
24/09Bradford beat Shrewsbury3/1-£10.00
24/09Rotherham beat Dag & Red3/1-£10.00
17/09Dagenham to beat Wycombe3/1-£10.00
17/09Macclesfield to beat Port Vale7/2+£35.00
09/09Rotherham to beat Rochdale11/10-£10.00
09/09Port Vale to beat Darlington11/4-£10.00
04/09Dag & Red to beat Brentford12/5-£10.00
04/09Rotherham to beat Chesterfield21/10-£10.00
28/08Chester to beat Barnet17/10+£17.00
28/08Rotherham to beat Brentford21/10-£10.00
19/08Lincoln to win at Wycombe15/4-£10.00
19/08Port Vale to beat Dag & Red21/10-£10.00
15/08Bradford to win at Macclesfield13/10+£13.00
15/08Rotherham to win at Morecambe21/10+£21.00
06/08Rochdale to beat Grimsby17/10-£10.00
06/08Macclesfield to beat Shrewsbury4/1-£10.00
Total -£17.73

Previous Spread Bets (Around 1 bet per week each of Rob's own money)

DateBetPriceBuy/SellActualProfit/Loss
09/10Accrington v Bradford - Sell Accrington mini-performance1920S-£1.00
24/09Accrington v Rochdale - Sell Accrington mini-performance2110S+£11.00
17/09Chester v Shrewsbury - Buy Shrewsbury mini-performance3020S-£10.00
09/09Grimsby v Chester - Buy Chester mini-performance21B55+£34.00
04/09Chesterfield v Rotherham: Buy Rotherham mini performance23S0-£23.00
28/08Rochdale v Bury: Sell Rochdale mini-performance38B20+£8.00
19/08Rotherham v Chester: Buy Rotherham mini-performance38B55+£17.00
15/08Rochdale v Barnet: Sell Rochdale mini-performance31S55-£24.00
06/08Bury v Brentford: Sell Brentford mini performance20S0+£20.00
Total +£32.00

Previous Monkey Bets (£10 per week of the Monkey's pretend money)

DateBetOddsProfit/Loss
09/10Grimsby to win 3-133/1-£10.00
06/10Grimsby to win 3-180/1-£10.00
30/09Grimsby to win 3-140/1-£10.00
24/09Grimsby to win 3-116/1-£10.00
17/09Grimsby to win 3-133/1-£10.00
09/09Grimsby to win 3-128/1-£10.00
04/09Grimsby to win 3-140/1-£10.00
28/08Grimsby to win 3-133/1-£10.00
19/08Grimsby to win 3-122/1-£10.00
15/08Grimsby to win 3-133/1-£10.00
06/08Grimsby to win 3-118/1-£10.00
Total -£110.00

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