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Beat the Bookies: Week 13

By: Rob Sedgwick
Date: 31/10/2008

THE midweek bets this week were not a success, so it's time to turn our attention once more to the world of League Two this weekend.

Home > 2008-2009 Season > Beat the Bookies > Week 13

Grimsby v Darlington. It's frankly hard to see much beyond an away win at the moment, and the bookies unsurprisingly have made Darlo strong favourites to win at Blundell Park. 5/4 for any away win is probably not the best value around this weekend, despite Darlington's recent form. However only the very brave would back Grimsby at 12/5, especially if they had been to Dagenham unless they believe that the signing of JPK with have a cataclysmic effect.

Bradford v Barnet. Bradford are inevitably strong favourites, but Barnet have improved markedly in recent games and have shown they are more than capable of picking up wins away from Underhill (e.g. 4-3 at Rotherham with 10 men for most of the game). The away win can be picked up for 5/1.

Dagenham v Accrington. Town were bad the other night, but a lot of credit must also go to Dagenham, who looked stronger and fitter than Town and a very well organised side with several excellent forwards. Accrington are no mugs but even so 5/6 for a home win which has a sense of inevitability about it could be value.

Exeter v Chester. Chester are a yo-yo side: brilliant one day, terrible the next. They won their last game 3-0; Exeter lost theirs 6-1. Surely 4/1 for an away win has to be worth it! Alternatively buy Chester in the spreads.

Notts Co v Bury. Neither team is in very good form and County do tend to draw a lot of games, especially at home. However Bury's slump has been rather worrying for the Shakers and they don't look very likely to come away with much from Meadow Lane. County are one of the longest priced home sides in League Two and are worth backing at 13/8

Shrewsbury v Luton. Shrewsbury may have looked like Champions Elect a few weeks ago, but they have only won 1 game in 6. Luton have picked up recently and had a good win in midweek over Bury. The Hatters could cause an upset and are well worth considering at 4/1.

This season we will be trying out three different betting strategies:

  • Fixed Odds - as per last year
  • Spread Betting on the Mini Performance Index with IG Index (25 points for a win, 10 for a draw, 10 for a goal)
  • The Monkey (betting on Town to win each game 3-1, i.e. the complete absence of any betting strategy).

Recommended Fixed Odds Bets

  • 1. Dagenham to beat Accrington 5/6 Bet365
  • 2. Luton to beat Shrewsbury 4/1 Bet365

Recommended Spread Bet

  • Notts County v Bury - buy Notts County Mini Performance (26) at

The Monkey's Bet

  • Grimsby to win 3-1 (33/1, bet365)

Previous Fixed Odds Bets (1 or 2 bets, around £10 per week each of Rob's own money)

27/10Grimsby to beat Dagenham4/1-£10.00
27/10Port Vale to beat Aldershot12/5-£10.00
22/10Rotherham to beat Macclesfield8/5+£16.00
22/10Luton to beat Bury10/3+£33.33
14/10Brentford to beat Aldershot19/10-£10.00
14/10Port Vale to beat Chester2/1+£20.00
09/10Grimsby to beat Wycombe11/4-£10.00
09/10Barnet to beat Dagenham9/2-£10.00
06/10Grimsby to beat Scunthorpe6/1-£10.00
06/10Dagenham to beat Peterborough5/1+£50.00
30/09Shrewsbury beat Darlington2/1-£10.00
30/09Brentford to beat Macclesfield8/11+£7.27
24/09Bradford to beat Shrewsbury3/1-£10.00
24/09Rotherham to beat Dag & Red3/1-£10.00
17/09Dagenham to beat Wycombe3/1-£10.00
17/09Macclesfield to beat Port Vale7/2+£35.00
09/09Rotherham to beat Rochdale11/10-£10.00
09/09Port Vale to beat Darlington11/4-£10.00
04/09Dag & Red to beat Brentford12/5-£10.00
04/09Rotherham to beat Chesterfield21/10-£10.00
28/08Chester to beat Barnet17/10+£17.00
28/08Rotherham to beat Brentford21/10-£10.00
19/08Lincoln to win at Wycombe15/4-£10.00
19/08Port Vale to beat Dag & Red21/10-£10.00
15/08Bradford to win at Macclesfield13/10+£13.00
15/08Rotherham to win at Morecambe21/10+£21.00
06/08Rochdale to beat Grimsby17/10-£10.00
06/08Macclesfield to beat Shrewsbury4/1-£10.00
Total +£21.60

Previous Spread Bets (Around 1 bet per week each of Rob's own money)

22/10Port Vale v Morecambe - Sell Morecambe mini-performance1910S+£9.00
14/10Rotherham v Barnet - Sell Barnet mini-performance1465S-£51.00
09/10Accrington v Bradford - Sell Accrington mini-performance1920S-£1.00
24/09Accrington v Rochdale - Sell Accrington mini-performance2110S+£11.00
17/09Chester v Shrewsbury - Buy Shrewsbury mini-performance3020S-£10.00
09/09Grimsby v Chester - Buy Chester mini-performance21B55+£34.00
04/09Chesterfield v Rotherham: Buy Rotherham mini performance23S0-£23.00
28/08Rochdale v Bury: Sell Rochdale mini-performance38B20+£8.00
19/08Rotherham v Chester: Buy Rotherham mini-performance38B55+£17.00
15/08Rochdale v Barnet: Sell Rochdale mini-performance31S55-£24.00
06/08Bury v Brentford: Sell Brentford mini performance20S0+£20.00
Total -£10.00

Previous Monkey Bets (£10 per week of the Monkey's pretend money)

27/10Grimsby to win 3-140/1-£10.00
22/10Grimsby to win 3-125/1-£10.00
14/10Grimsby to win 3-140/1-£10.00
09/10Grimsby to win 3-133/1-£10.00
06/10Grimsby to win 3-180/1-£10.00
30/09Grimsby to win 3-140/1-£10.00
24/09Grimsby to win 3-116/1-£10.00
17/09Grimsby to win 3-133/1-£10.00
09/09Grimsby to win 3-128/1-£10.00
04/09Grimsby to win 3-140/1-£10.00
28/08Grimsby to win 3-133/1-£10.00
19/08Grimsby to win 3-122/1-£10.00
15/08Grimsby to win 3-133/1-£10.00
06/08Grimsby to win 3-118/1-£10.00
Total -£140.00

Every month I try and beat the bookies but now you can try and beat me - with pretend money. Just sign up and join the Grimsby Town team at OLBG.

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