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Beat the Bookies
Beat the Bookies

Beat the Bookies: Week 18

By: Rob Sedgwick
Date: 04/12/2008

LAST week's foray into the FA Cup proved singularly unsuccessful, so this week we return to League Two when coincidentally there are some very important games at the bottom of the table.

Home > 2008-2009 Season > Beat the Bookies > Week 18

Port Vale v Grimsby. With both clubs not doing very well at the moment this is a very hard game to call. Town as we know have improved of late, but there results haven't necessarily reflected that. If you are brave you may be tempted by 11/4 for a Town win, but 23/10 for a draw might be slightly more realistic.

Bournemouth v Chester. Sadly its hard to see anything but a home win in this game. Bournemouth simply must win it, they are at home, they are a better team than Chester anyway. Three points to the Cherries looks a formality. They can be baked at Evens with Paddy Power.

Luton v Barnet. This falls into the same category as the Bournemouth and a home win is likely. If anything though Barnet have got a slightly better chance than Chester purely because Luton's recent form is so terrible, but still expect a home win which is available at 10/11

Aldershot v Wycombe. Both clubs suffered FA Cup defeats at the weekend, despite the excellent League Two form the pair are experiencing. Wycombe however have already bounced back with a comfortable win over Macclesfield in midweek. As Wycombe are yet to lose a game this season and Aldershot have won there last four without conceding a goal something has to give. This looks like being a low scoring game, but at 11/8 the Chairboys are probably the better value.

Gillingham v Chesterfield. Both clubs had been doing well but have slipped up in their last couple of games and dropped points. In truth there looks little to separate the two sides which makes the 5/2 price for an away win a little baffling.

Bradford v Dagenham. Dagenham are having a great season but they do not travel well. It's true that Bradford are not as strong on their own ground as they should be, but even so this looks like another home banker for a team who have picked up 4 wins out of 6. You can back City at 10/11

This season we will be trying out three different betting strategies:

  • Fixed Odds - as per last year
  • Spread Betting on the Mini Performance Index with IG Index (25 points for a win, 10 for a draw, 10 for a goal)
  • The Monkey (betting on Town to win each game 3-1, i.e. the complete absence of any betting strategy).

Recommended Fixed Odds Bets

  • 1. Bournemouth to beat Chester. (Evens, Paddy Power)
  • 2. Bradford to beat Dagenham. (10/11 Bet365),

Recommended Spread Bet

  • Aldershot v Wycombe - sell Aldershot Mini Performance (21) at

The Monkey's Bet

  • Grimsby to win 3-1, 33/1 Bet365

Previous Fixed Odds Bets (1 or 2 bets, around £10 per week each of Rob's own money)

28/11Aldershot beat Millwall13/2-£10.00
28/11Alferton beat Scunthorpe17/2-£10.00
19/11Notts Co to beat Dagenham12/5-£10.00
19/11Gillingham to beat Bury19/10-£10.00
11/11Grimsby to beat Bury9/2+£45.00
11/11Gillingham to beat Rotherham5/4+£12.50
06/11Northampton to beat Leeds13/2-£10.00
06/11Grimsby to beat Morecambe11/4-£10.00
06/11Bradford to beat MK Dons11/2+£55.00
31/10Dagenham to beat Accrington5/6-£10.00
31/10Luton to beat Shrewsbury4/1-£10.00
27/10Grimsby to beat Dagenham4/1-£10.00
27/10Port Vale to beat Aldershot12/5-£10.00
22/10Rotherham to beat Macclesfield8/5+£16.00
22/10Luton to beat Bury10/3+£33.33
14/10Brentford to beat Aldershot19/10-£10.00
14/10Port Vale to beat Chester2/1+£20.00
09/10Grimsby to beat Wycombe11/4-£10.00
09/10Barnet to beat Dagenham9/2-£10.00
06/10Grimsby to beat Scunthorpe6/1-£10.00
06/10Dagenham to beat Peterborough5/1+£50.00
30/09Shrewsbury beat Darlington2/1-£10.00
30/09Brentford to beat Macclesfield8/11+£7.27
24/09Bradford to beat Shrewsbury3/1-£10.00
24/09Rotherham to beat Dag & Red3/1-£10.00
17/09Dagenham to beat Wycombe3/1-£10.00
17/09Macclesfield to beat Port Vale7/2+£35.00
09/09Rotherham to beat Rochdale11/10-£10.00
09/09Port Vale to beat Darlington11/4-£10.00
04/09Dag & Red to beat Brentford12/5-£10.00
04/09Rotherham to beat Chesterfield21/10-£10.00
28/08Chester to beat Barnet17/10+£17.00
28/08Rotherham to beat Brentford21/10-£10.00
19/08Lincoln to win at Wycombe15/4-£10.00
19/08Port Vale to beat Dag & Red21/10-£10.00
15/08Bradford to win at Macclesfield13/10+£13.00
15/08Rotherham to win at Morecambe21/10+£21.00
06/08Rochdale to beat Grimsby17/10-£10.00
06/08Macclesfield to beat Shrewsbury4/1-£10.00
Total +£54.10

Previous Spread Bets (Around 1 bet per week each of Rob's own money)

19/11Rotherham v Bradford - buy Bradford Mini Performance2545S+£20.00
31/10Notts County v Bury - Buy Notts County Mini Performance260S-£26.00
22/10Port Vale v Morecambe - Sell Morecambe mini-performance1910S+£9.00
14/10Rotherham v Barnet - Sell Barnet mini-performance1465S-£51.00
09/10Accrington v Bradford - Sell Accrington mini-performance1920S-£1.00
24/09Accrington v Rochdale - Sell Accrington mini-performance2110S+£11.00
17/09Chester v Shrewsbury - Buy Shrewsbury mini-performance3020S-£10.00
09/09Grimsby v Chester - Buy Chester mini-performance21B55+£34.00
04/09Chesterfield v Rotherham: Buy Rotherham mini performance23S0-£23.00
28/08Rochdale v Bury: Sell Rochdale mini-performance38B20+£8.00
19/08Rotherham v Chester: Buy Rotherham mini-performance38B55+£17.00
15/08Rochdale v Barnet: Sell Rochdale mini-performance31S55-£24.00
06/08Bury v Brentford: Sell Brentford mini performance20S0+£20.00
Total -£16.00

Previous Monkey Bets (£10 per week of the Monkey's pretend money)

19/11Grimsby to win 3-125/1-£10.00
11/11Grimsby to win 3-150/1-£10.00
06/11Grimsby to win 3-133/1-£10.00
31/10Grimsby to win 3-133/1-£10.00
27/10Grimsby to win 3-140/1-£10.00
22/10Grimsby to win 3-125/1-£10.00
14/10Grimsby to win 3-140/1-£10.00
09/10Grimsby to win 3-133/1-£10.00
06/10Grimsby to win 3-180/1-£10.00
30/09Grimsby to win 3-140/1-£10.00
24/09Grimsby to win 3-116/1-£10.00
17/09Grimsby to win 3-133/1-£10.00
09/09Grimsby to win 3-128/1-£10.00
04/09Grimsby to win 3-140/1-£10.00
28/08Grimsby to win 3-133/1-£10.00
19/08Grimsby to win 3-122/1-£10.00
15/08Grimsby to win 3-133/1-£10.00
06/08Grimsby to win 3-118/1-£10.00
Total -£180.00

Every month I try and beat the bookies but now you can try and beat me - with pretend money. Just sign up and join the Grimsby Town team at OLBG.

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