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Due some luck!
Due some luck!

Beat the Bookies: Week 19

By: Rob Sedgwick
Date: 11/12/2008

LAST week's two fixed odds bets cancelled one another out as one was a winner at Evens and the other a loser. Aldershot's win at home to Wycombe ensured however a losing spread bet and meant Beat the Bookies was down for the week.

Home > 2008-2009 Season > Beat the Bookies > Week 19

This week there is a very promising looking set of fixtures where the least favoured side has a reasonable chance.

Wycombe v Luton. Wycombe finally lost their unbeaten record at Aldershot last week, and how often it seems to happen that once a team loses the floodgates open and other defeats soon follow. Luton are a team who need to win every game so they definitely shouldn't be playing for a draw. They can be backed at 4/1.. Selection: Luton.

Bury v Port Vale. Town have played both these sides recently and neither were very good. You would expect Bury to have a slight advantage as they are at home, but otherwise you would expect a fairly even match. Yet Port Vale are as long as 10/3 to win at Gigg Lane and follow up their triumph over Grimsby last week. Selection: Port Vale.

Chester v Notts County. Chester are a very unpredictable side. They have had a few fantastic results such as the recent away win at Darlington but are normally poor. Notts County we'd normally recommend but they've had a midweek game so may be at a slight disadvantage. Nevertheless 9/5 for a County win is well worth consideration, possibly deferring until near kick off to see if County have any injury problems. Selection: Notts County.

Brentford v Bradford. Bradford have looked like automatic promotion candidates all season, and only their home form has stopped them from cementing a position in the top three. Away from home their large and vocal travelling support helps them maintain an excellent record. Brentford are having a good season, but the Bantams are good value at 11/5. Selection: Bradford.

Rochdale v Bournemouth. Bournemouth followed up four consecutive draws with a win last week, while Dale did not play because of the weather. The barren spell may mean that Rochdale's promotion charge has lost some momentum. With Bournemouth now within grasp of the teams immediately above them, 4/1 for an away win has to be one of this week's value bets. Selection: Bournemouth.

Grimsby v Shrewsbury. Town are due a win! What the bookies probably haven't taken into account is that Mike Newell's latest acquisitions will almost certainly be involved in the game giving Town a better chance than their form might indicate. 11/5 is a good price for a home win. Selection: Grimsby.

Chesterfield v Macclesfield. The fixture list has not been kind to Chesterfield. Having played on Tuesday they have to take the field 72 hours later against Keith Alexander's Macclesfield, who will no doubt give them a real physical test. Selection: Chesterfield. Macclesfield have had some decent results recently and at 10/3 are worth backing to take another scalp.

This season we will be trying out three different betting strategies:

  • Fixed Odds - as per last year
  • Spread Betting on the Mini Performance Index with IG Index (25 points for a win, 10 for a draw, 10 for a goal)
  • The Monkey (betting on Town to win each game 3-1, i.e. the complete absence of any betting strategy).

Recommended Fixed Odds Bets

  • 1. Port Vale to beat Bury . (10/3 Bet365),
  • 2. Macclesfield to beat Chesterfield. (10/3 Bet365),
  • 3. Bournemouth to beat Rochdale . (4/1 Bet365),

Recommended Spread Bet

  • Luton v Wycombe - buy Luton Mini Performance (16) at

The Monkey's Bet

  • Grimsby to win 3-1, 28/1 Bet365

Previous Fixed Odds Bets (1 or 2 bets, around £10 per week each of Rob's own money)

04/12Bournemouth to beat ChesterEvens+£10.00
04/12Bradford to beat Dagenham10/11-£10.00
28/11Aldershot beat Millwall13/2-£10.00
28/11Alferton beat Scunthorpe17/2-£10.00
19/11Notts Co to beat Dagenham12/5-£10.00
19/11Gillingham to beat Bury19/10-£10.00
11/11Grimsby to beat Bury9/2+£45.00
11/11Gillingham to beat Rotherham5/4+£12.50
06/11Northampton to beat Leeds13/2-£10.00
06/11Grimsby to beat Morecambe11/4-£10.00
06/11Bradford to beat MK Dons11/2+£55.00
31/10Dagenham to beat Accrington5/6-£10.00
31/10Luton to beat Shrewsbury4/1-£10.00
27/10Grimsby to beat Dagenham4/1-£10.00
27/10Port Vale to beat Aldershot12/5-£10.00
22/10Rotherham to beat Macclesfield8/5+£16.00
22/10Luton to beat Bury10/3+£33.33
14/10Brentford to beat Aldershot19/10-£10.00
14/10Port Vale to beat Chester2/1+£20.00
09/10Grimsby to beat Wycombe11/4-£10.00
09/10Barnet to beat Dagenham9/2-£10.00
06/10Grimsby to beat Scunthorpe6/1-£10.00
06/10Dagenham to beat Peterborough5/1+£50.00
30/09Shrewsbury beat Darlington2/1-£10.00
30/09Brentford to beat Macclesfield8/11+£7.27
24/09Bradford to beat Shrewsbury3/1-£10.00
24/09Rotherham to beat Dag & Red3/1-£10.00
17/09Dagenham to beat Wycombe3/1-£10.00
17/09Macclesfield to beat Port Vale7/2+£35.00
09/09Rotherham to beat Rochdale11/10-£10.00
09/09Port Vale to beat Darlington11/4-£10.00
04/09Dag & Red to beat Brentford12/5-£10.00
04/09Rotherham to beat Chesterfield21/10-£10.00
28/08Chester to beat Barnet17/10+£17.00
28/08Rotherham to beat Brentford21/10-£10.00
19/08Lincoln to win at Wycombe15/4-£10.00
19/08Port Vale to beat Dag & Red21/10-£10.00
15/08Bradford to win at Macclesfield13/10+£13.00
15/08Rotherham to win at Morecambe21/10+£21.00
06/08Rochdale to beat Grimsby17/10-£10.00
06/08Macclesfield to beat Shrewsbury4/1-£10.00
Total +£54.10

Previous Spread Bets (Around 1 bet per week each of Rob's own money)

04/12Aldershot v Wycombe - sell Aldershot Mini Performance2155S-£34.00
19/11Rotherham v Bradford - buy Bradford Mini Performance2545S+£20.00
31/10Notts County v Bury - Buy Notts County Mini Performance260S-£26.00
22/10Port Vale v Morecambe - Sell Morecambe mini-performance1910S+£9.00
14/10Rotherham v Barnet - Sell Barnet mini-performance1465S-£51.00
09/10Accrington v Bradford - Sell Accrington mini-performance1920S-£1.00
24/09Accrington v Rochdale - Sell Accrington mini-performance2110S+£11.00
17/09Chester v Shrewsbury - Buy Shrewsbury mini-performance3020S-£10.00
09/09Grimsby v Chester - Buy Chester mini-performance21B55+£34.00
04/09Chesterfield v Rotherham: Buy Rotherham mini performance23S0-£23.00
28/08Rochdale v Bury: Sell Rochdale mini-performance38B20+£8.00
19/08Rotherham v Chester: Buy Rotherham mini-performance38B55+£17.00
15/08Rochdale v Barnet: Sell Rochdale mini-performance31S55-£24.00
06/08Bury v Brentford: Sell Brentford mini performance20S0+£20.00
Total -£50.00

Previous Monkey Bets (£10 per week of the Monkey's pretend money)

04/12Grimsby to win 3-133/1-£10.00
19/11Grimsby to win 3-125/1-£10.00
11/11Grimsby to win 3-150/1-£10.00
06/11Grimsby to win 3-133/1-£10.00
31/10Grimsby to win 3-133/1-£10.00
27/10Grimsby to win 3-140/1-£10.00
22/10Grimsby to win 3-125/1-£10.00
14/10Grimsby to win 3-140/1-£10.00
09/10Grimsby to win 3-133/1-£10.00
06/10Grimsby to win 3-180/1-£10.00
30/09Grimsby to win 3-140/1-£10.00
24/09Grimsby to win 3-116/1-£10.00
17/09Grimsby to win 3-133/1-£10.00
09/09Grimsby to win 3-128/1-£10.00
04/09Grimsby to win 3-140/1-£10.00
28/08Grimsby to win 3-133/1-£10.00
19/08Grimsby to win 3-122/1-£10.00
15/08Grimsby to win 3-133/1-£10.00
06/08Grimsby to win 3-118/1-£10.00
Total -£190.00

Every month I try and beat the bookies but now you can try and beat me - with pretend money. Just sign up and join the Grimsby Town team at OLBG.

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