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Is the squad strong enough to challenge for promotion?

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Cheers Lincoln!
Cheers Lincoln!

Beat the Bookies Boxing Day Special

By: Rob Sedgwick
Date: 23/12/2008

ANOTHER small profit was made last week when Notts County lost to Lincoln. Had Grimsby held on to beat Aldershot it would have been a larger take. This week we have a Boxing Day special with FOUR fixed odds recommendations.

Home > 2008-2009 Season > Beat the Bookies > Week 21


Chesterfield v Luton Chesterfield have to play an FA Cup tie less than 72 hours before this game kicks off. The fact that their recent form is patchy and Luton are unbeaten in the last four and desperately need to win means an away win is more likely than if this were a normal Saturday game. Luton are a good price at 14/5 for the away win. Selection: Luton.

Rotherham v Port Vale. Rotherham have had a terrible run of late until they finally managed to win a game on Saturday against another desperately out of form side - Accrington. They face another out of form team this week in Port Vale. However you wouldn't be overconfident of another Rotherham win, and the odds for an away win look too long (4/1, Sky Bet). Selection: Port Vale.

Brentford v Bournemouth. Bournemouth are starting to find form and have gone six games without defeat. It's easy to think of the Cherries as a relegation side but their actual points tally is that of a mid-table side within spitting distance of the play-offs. Brentford are having a good season, granted, but look overpriced to win at home, and Bournemouth underpriced (9/2 Sky Bet). Selection: Bournemouth

Lincoln v Bradford Bradford have dropped a lot of points of late and this week come up against a team who have won their last two games. However those last two games were against Notts County and Accrington and the Imps have struggled of late against decent opposition. City are a decent price (15/8) this week because of their lack of recent form and are well worth backing. Selection: Bradford.

Dag & Red v Gillingham Dagenham have been a revelation this season and now have the best goal difference in the division. As with other fixtures this week however the bookies do have a tendency to overprice home sides. The Gills will probably take as many fans to the game as Dagenham can muster and with decent form themselves are more than capable of an "upset" (11/5). Selection: Gillingham.

Wycombe v Exeter Same story as in many other fixtures this week. Decent away team, home team in form, bookies overprice (4/1) the home team as that's where 90% of the money goes. We recommend the away team. Selection: Exeter.

Rochdale v Shrewsbury Shrewsbury have hardly won away this season, but on the other hand they have lost very few, with most of their games being draws. Their home form suggests they have underachieved away rather than the other way round. Rochdale have only one of the last ten games and got walloped last week by Exeter. Shrews (9/4) to do what they failed to do at Blundell Park last week and come home with three points. Selection: Shrewsbury.


This season we will be trying out three different betting strategies:

  • Fixed Odds - as per last year
  • Spread Betting on the Mini Performance Index with IG Index (25 points for a win, 10 for a draw, 10 for a goal)
  • The Monkey (betting on Town to win each game 3-1, i.e. the complete absence of any betting strategy).


Recommended Fixed Odds Bets

  • 1. Luton to beat Chesterfield. (14/5 Bet365),
  • 2. Port Vale to beat Rotherham. (4/1 Sky Bet),
  • 3. Bournemouth to beat Brentford. (9/2 Sky Bet),
  • 4. Shrewsbury to beat Rochdale. (9/4 Bet365),.

Recommended Spread Bet

    No bet this week.

The Monkey's Bet

  • Grimsby to win 3-1, 16/1 Bet365

Previous Fixed Odds Bets (1 or 2 bets, around £10 per week each of Rob's own money)

DateBetOddsProfit/Loss
16/12Grimsby to beat Aldershot9/2-£10.00
16/12Lincoln to beat Notts County7/4+£17.50
11/12Port Vale to beat Bury10/3-£10.00
11/12Macclesfield to beat Chesterfield10/3+£33.33
11/12Bournemouth to beat Rochdale4/1-£10.00
04/12Bournemouth to beat ChesterEvens+£10.00
04/12Bradford to beat Dagenham10/11-£10.00
28/11Aldershot beat Millwall13/2-£10.00
28/11Alferton beat Scunthorpe17/2-£10.00
19/11Notts Co to beat Dagenham12/5-£10.00
19/11Gillingham to beat Bury19/10-£10.00
11/11Grimsby to beat Bury9/2+£45.00
11/11Gillingham to beat Rotherham5/4+£12.50
06/11Northampton to beat Leeds13/2-£10.00
06/11Grimsby to beat Morecambe11/4-£10.00
06/11Bradford to beat MK Dons11/2+£55.00
31/10Dagenham to beat Accrington5/6-£10.00
31/10Luton to beat Shrewsbury4/1-£10.00
27/10Grimsby to beat Dagenham4/1-£10.00
27/10Port Vale to beat Aldershot12/5-£10.00
22/10Rotherham to beat Macclesfield8/5+£16.00
22/10Luton to beat Bury10/3+£33.33
14/10Brentford to beat Aldershot19/10-£10.00
14/10Port Vale to beat Chester2/1+£20.00
09/10Grimsby to beat Wycombe11/4-£10.00
09/10Barnet to beat Dagenham9/2-£10.00
06/10Grimsby to beat Scunthorpe6/1-£10.00
06/10Dagenham to beat Peterborough5/1+£50.00
30/09Shrewsbury beat Darlington2/1-£10.00
30/09Brentford to beat Macclesfield8/11+£7.27
24/09Bradford to beat Shrewsbury3/1-£10.00
24/09Rotherham to beat Dag & Red3/1-£10.00
17/09Dagenham to beat Wycombe3/1-£10.00
17/09Macclesfield to beat Port Vale7/2+£35.00
09/09Rotherham to beat Rochdale11/10-£10.00
09/09Port Vale to beat Darlington11/4-£10.00
04/09Dag & Red to beat Brentford12/5-£10.00
04/09Rotherham to beat Chesterfield21/10-£10.00
28/08Chester to beat Barnet17/10+£17.00
28/08Rotherham to beat Brentford21/10-£10.00
19/08Lincoln to win at Wycombe15/4-£10.00
19/08Port Vale to beat Dag & Red21/10-£10.00
15/08Bradford to win at Macclesfield13/10+£13.00
15/08Rotherham to win at Morecambe21/10+£21.00
06/08Rochdale to beat Grimsby17/10-£10.00
06/08Macclesfield to beat Shrewsbury4/1-£10.00
Total +£74.93

Previous Spread Bets (Around 1 bet per week each of Rob's own money)

DateBetPriceBuy/SellActualProfit/Loss
04/12Luton v Wycombe - buy Luton Mini Performance2110B-£6.00
04/12Aldershot v Wycombe - sell Aldershot Mini Performance2155S-£34.00
19/11Rotherham v Bradford - buy Bradford Mini Performance2545S+£20.00
31/10Notts County v Bury - Buy Notts County Mini Performance260S-£26.00
22/10Port Vale v Morecambe - Sell Morecambe mini-performance1910S+£9.00
14/10Rotherham v Barnet - Sell Barnet mini-performance1465S-£51.00
09/10Accrington v Bradford - Sell Accrington mini-performance1920S-£1.00
24/09Accrington v Rochdale - Sell Accrington mini-performance2110S+£11.00
17/09Chester v Shrewsbury - Buy Shrewsbury mini-performance3020S-£10.00
09/09Grimsby v Chester - Buy Chester mini-performance21B55+£34.00
04/09Chesterfield v Rotherham: Buy Rotherham mini performance23S0-£23.00
28/08Rochdale v Bury: Sell Rochdale mini-performance38B20+£8.00
19/08Rotherham v Chester: Buy Rotherham mini-performance38B55+£17.00
15/08Rochdale v Barnet: Sell Rochdale mini-performance31S55-£24.00
06/08Bury v Brentford: Sell Brentford mini performance20S0+£20.00
Total -£56.00

Previous Monkey Bets (£10 per week of the Monkey's pretend money)

DateBetOddsProfit/Loss
17/12Grimsby to win 3-140/1-£10.00
11/12Grimsby to win 3-128/1-£10.00
04/12Grimsby to win 3-133/1-£10.00
19/11Grimsby to win 3-125/1-£10.00
11/11Grimsby to win 3-150/1-£10.00
06/11Grimsby to win 3-133/1-£10.00
31/10Grimsby to win 3-133/1-£10.00
27/10Grimsby to win 3-140/1-£10.00
22/10Grimsby to win 3-125/1-£10.00
14/10Grimsby to win 3-140/1-£10.00
09/10Grimsby to win 3-133/1-£10.00
06/10Grimsby to win 3-180/1-£10.00
30/09Grimsby to win 3-140/1-£10.00
24/09Grimsby to win 3-116/1-£10.00
17/09Grimsby to win 3-133/1-£10.00
09/09Grimsby to win 3-128/1-£10.00
04/09Grimsby to win 3-140/1-£10.00
28/08Grimsby to win 3-133/1-£10.00
19/08Grimsby to win 3-122/1-£10.00
15/08Grimsby to win 3-133/1-£10.00
06/08Grimsby to win 3-118/1-£10.00
Total -£210.00

Every month I try and beat the bookies but now you can try and beat me - with pretend money. Just sign up and join the Grimsby Town team at OLBG.

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