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Question of the Week

Where will Grimsby be next season?

Cheers Lincoln!

Beat the Bookies Boxing Day Special

By: Rob Sedgwick
Date: 23/12/2008

ANOTHER small profit was made last week when Notts County lost to Lincoln. Had Grimsby held on to beat Aldershot it would have been a larger take. This week we have a Boxing Day special with FOUR fixed odds recommendations.

Home > 2008-2009 Season > Beat the Bookies > Week 21

Chesterfield v Luton Chesterfield have to play an FA Cup tie less than 72 hours before this game kicks off. The fact that their recent form is patchy and Luton are unbeaten in the last four and desperately need to win means an away win is more likely than if this were a normal Saturday game. Luton are a good price at 14/5 for the away win. Selection: Luton.

Rotherham v Port Vale. Rotherham have had a terrible run of late until they finally managed to win a game on Saturday against another desperately out of form side - Accrington. They face another out of form team this week in Port Vale. However you wouldn't be overconfident of another Rotherham win, and the odds for an away win look too long (4/1, Sky Bet). Selection: Port Vale.

Brentford v Bournemouth. Bournemouth are starting to find form and have gone six games without defeat. It's easy to think of the Cherries as a relegation side but their actual points tally is that of a mid-table side within spitting distance of the play-offs. Brentford are having a good season, granted, but look overpriced to win at home, and Bournemouth underpriced (9/2 Sky Bet). Selection: Bournemouth

Lincoln v Bradford Bradford have dropped a lot of points of late and this week come up against a team who have won their last two games. However those last two games were against Notts County and Accrington and the Imps have struggled of late against decent opposition. City are a decent price (15/8) this week because of their lack of recent form and are well worth backing. Selection: Bradford.

Dag & Red v Gillingham Dagenham have been a revelation this season and now have the best goal difference in the division. As with other fixtures this week however the bookies do have a tendency to overprice home sides. The Gills will probably take as many fans to the game as Dagenham can muster and with decent form themselves are more than capable of an "upset" (11/5). Selection: Gillingham.

Wycombe v Exeter Same story as in many other fixtures this week. Decent away team, home team in form, bookies overprice (4/1) the home team as that's where 90% of the money goes. We recommend the away team. Selection: Exeter.

Rochdale v Shrewsbury Shrewsbury have hardly won away this season, but on the other hand they have lost very few, with most of their games being draws. Their home form suggests they have underachieved away rather than the other way round. Rochdale have only one of the last ten games and got walloped last week by Exeter. Shrews (9/4) to do what they failed to do at Blundell Park last week and come home with three points. Selection: Shrewsbury.

This season we will be trying out three different betting strategies:

Fixed Odds - as per last year
Spread Betting on the Mini Performance Index with IG Index (25 points for a win, 10 for a draw, 10 for a goal)
The Monkey (betting on Town to win each game 3-1, i.e. the complete absence of any betting strategy).

Recommended Fixed Odds Bets

1. Luton to beat Chesterfield. (14/5 Bet365),
2. Port Vale to beat Rotherham. (4/1 Sky Bet),
3. Bournemouth to beat Brentford. (9/2 Sky Bet),
4. Shrewsbury to beat Rochdale. (9/4 Bet365),.

Recommended Spread Bet

No bet this week.

The Monkey's Bet

Grimsby to win 3-1, 16/1 Bet365

Previous Fixed Odds Bets (1 or 2 bets, around £10 per week each of Rob's own money)

Date	Bet	Odds	Profit/Loss
16/12	Grimsby to beat Aldershot	9/2	-£10.00
16/12	Lincoln to beat Notts County	7/4	+£17.50
11/12	Port Vale to beat Bury	10/3	-£10.00
11/12	Macclesfield to beat Chesterfield	10/3	+£33.33
11/12	Bournemouth to beat Rochdale	4/1	-£10.00
04/12	Bournemouth to beat Chester	Evens	+£10.00
04/12	Bradford to beat Dagenham	10/11	-£10.00
28/11	Aldershot beat Millwall	13/2	-£10.00
28/11	Alferton beat Scunthorpe	17/2	-£10.00
19/11	Notts Co to beat Dagenham	12/5	-£10.00
19/11	Gillingham to beat Bury	19/10	-£10.00
11/11	Grimsby to beat Bury	9/2	+£45.00
11/11	Gillingham to beat Rotherham	5/4	+£12.50
06/11	Northampton to beat Leeds	13/2	-£10.00
06/11	Grimsby to beat Morecambe	11/4	-£10.00
06/11	Bradford to beat MK Dons	11/2	+£55.00
31/10	Dagenham to beat Accrington	5/6	-£10.00
31/10	Luton to beat Shrewsbury	4/1	-£10.00
27/10	Grimsby to beat Dagenham	4/1	-£10.00
27/10	Port Vale to beat Aldershot	12/5	-£10.00
22/10	Rotherham to beat Macclesfield	8/5	+£16.00
22/10	Luton to beat Bury	10/3	+£33.33
14/10	Brentford to beat Aldershot	19/10	-£10.00
14/10	Port Vale to beat Chester	2/1	+£20.00
09/10	Grimsby to beat Wycombe	11/4	-£10.00
09/10	Barnet to beat Dagenham	9/2	-£10.00
06/10	Grimsby to beat Scunthorpe	6/1	-£10.00
06/10	Dagenham to beat Peterborough	5/1	+£50.00
30/09	Shrewsbury beat Darlington	2/1	-£10.00
30/09	Brentford to beat Macclesfield	8/11	+£7.27
24/09	Bradford to beat Shrewsbury	3/1	-£10.00
24/09	Rotherham to beat Dag & Red	3/1	-£10.00
17/09	Dagenham to beat Wycombe	3/1	-£10.00
17/09	Macclesfield to beat Port Vale	7/2	+£35.00
09/09	Rotherham to beat Rochdale	11/10	-£10.00
09/09	Port Vale to beat Darlington	11/4	-£10.00
04/09	Dag & Red to beat Brentford	12/5	-£10.00
04/09	Rotherham to beat Chesterfield	21/10	-£10.00
28/08	Chester to beat Barnet	17/10	+£17.00
28/08	Rotherham to beat Brentford	21/10	-£10.00
19/08	Lincoln to win at Wycombe	15/4	-£10.00
19/08	Port Vale to beat Dag & Red	21/10	-£10.00
15/08	Bradford to win at Macclesfield	13/10	+£13.00
15/08	Rotherham to win at Morecambe	21/10	+£21.00
06/08	Rochdale to beat Grimsby	17/10	-£10.00
06/08	Macclesfield to beat Shrewsbury	4/1	-£10.00
Total			+£74.93

Previous Spread Bets (Around 1 bet per week each of Rob's own money)

Date	Bet	Price	Buy/Sell	Actual	Profit/Loss
04/12	Luton v Wycombe - buy Luton Mini Performance	21	10	B	-£6.00
04/12	Aldershot v Wycombe - sell Aldershot Mini Performance	21	55	S	-£34.00
19/11	Rotherham v Bradford - buy Bradford Mini Performance	25	45	S	+£20.00
31/10	Notts County v Bury - Buy Notts County Mini Performance	26	0	S	-£26.00
22/10	Port Vale v Morecambe - Sell Morecambe mini-performance	19	10	S	+£9.00
14/10	Rotherham v Barnet - Sell Barnet mini-performance	14	65	S	-£51.00
09/10	Accrington v Bradford - Sell Accrington mini-performance	19	20	S	-£1.00
24/09	Accrington v Rochdale - Sell Accrington mini-performance	21	10	S	+£11.00
17/09	Chester v Shrewsbury - Buy Shrewsbury mini-performance	30	20	S	-£10.00
09/09	Grimsby v Chester - Buy Chester mini-performance	21	B	55	+£34.00
04/09	Chesterfield v Rotherham: Buy Rotherham mini performance	23	S	0	-£23.00
28/08	Rochdale v Bury: Sell Rochdale mini-performance	38	B	20	+£8.00
19/08	Rotherham v Chester: Buy Rotherham mini-performance	38	B	55	+£17.00
15/08	Rochdale v Barnet: Sell Rochdale mini-performance	31	S	55	-£24.00
06/08	Bury v Brentford: Sell Brentford mini performance	20	S	0	+£20.00
Total					-£56.00

Previous Monkey Bets (£10 per week of the Monkey's pretend money)

Date	Bet	Odds	Profit/Loss
17/12	Grimsby to win 3-1	40/1	-£10.00
11/12	Grimsby to win 3-1	28/1	-£10.00
04/12	Grimsby to win 3-1	33/1	-£10.00
19/11	Grimsby to win 3-1	25/1	-£10.00
11/11	Grimsby to win 3-1	50/1	-£10.00
06/11	Grimsby to win 3-1	33/1	-£10.00
31/10	Grimsby to win 3-1	33/1	-£10.00
27/10	Grimsby to win 3-1	40/1	-£10.00
22/10	Grimsby to win 3-1	25/1	-£10.00
14/10	Grimsby to win 3-1	40/1	-£10.00
09/10	Grimsby to win 3-1	33/1	-£10.00
06/10	Grimsby to win 3-1	80/1	-£10.00
30/09	Grimsby to win 3-1	40/1	-£10.00
24/09	Grimsby to win 3-1	16/1	-£10.00
17/09	Grimsby to win 3-1	33/1	-£10.00
09/09	Grimsby to win 3-1	28/1	-£10.00
04/09	Grimsby to win 3-1	40/1	-£10.00
28/08	Grimsby to win 3-1	33/1	-£10.00
19/08	Grimsby to win 3-1	22/1	-£10.00
15/08	Grimsby to win 3-1	33/1	-£10.00
06/08	Grimsby to win 3-1	18/1	-£10.00
Total			-£210.00

Every month I try and beat the bookies but now you can try and beat me - with pretend money. Just sign up and join the Grimsby Town team at OLBG.

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