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Beat the Bookies: Week 24

By: Rob Sedgwick
Date: 21/01/2009

GRIMSBY'S unexpected win over Wycombe meant a spread bet win for Beat the Bookies, although unfortunately any winnings were offset by the two fixed odds recommendations in Luton and Lincoln both failing to win, the latter only narrowly.

Home > 2008-2009 Season > Beat the Bookies > Week 24

The League Two programme contains some very close contests this weekend, with outcomes hard to predict, so we'll therefore be also featuring the FA Cup in today's article which has several all-Premiership matches to ruminate over.

Grimsby v Rotherham After last week's success Town have another tough challenge when they take on the Millers at Blundell Park. The bookies have responded by cutting Town's odds to 13/8, which is a lot shorter than they've been against less successful clubs than Rotherham recently in Blundell Park games. One large thing also in Town's favour however is the fact that Rotherham are in the middle of the JPT Northern final against Scunthorpe and the players and manager will inevitably find it difficult to not dwell on the return leg, especially with little to play for in the league. So overall the bookies' are probably right to shorten the odds on Town but you will have to decide if it represents good value Selection: Grimsby

Bournemouth v Wycombe. Wycombe were poor by their standards last week and will be looking for a big improvement against Bournemouth, whose form has really slumped in recent weeks. However the Cherries have this week appointed a new manager and Wycombe invariably seem to dip in form at this time of year, plus they have a few injuries. Selection: Bournemouth

The important thing with the Premiership clubs and the FA Cup is to look at when the clubs concerned are next playing. There is a full set of fixtures next week on Tuesday and Wednesday, with the FA Cup games on Saturday and Sunday. This means the clubs with most to play for, i.e. those at the very top and the very bottom, have less to play for in the cup and are most likely to rest players.

Chelsea v Ipswich. Chelsea have spluttered in recent weeks and only managed to draw at home in the previous round against Southend. For Championship side Ipswich this is their biggest game on the season and they are certain to play their strongest side. Unlikely as it may seem Ipswich are 16/1 to win at Stamford Bridge. A more cautious bet but one which is very good value is the Asian Handicap which gives a 2 goal start to Chelsea. Ipswich are 4/5 on the handicap which means Chelsea need to win by 3 goals for you to lose any money. Selection: Ipswich (Asian Handicap)

Man Utd v Tottenham. This is a more difficult game to predict as both sides need to concentrate on the Premiership for different reasons. That said of the two it's a much bigger game for Spurs, who are likely to pull themselves away from the bottom whatever happens in next game or so. Man Utd are almost certain to rest key players, and 8/1 for a Spurs win looks great value. Remember Harry Rednapp came to Old Trafford last year and won with his Pompey side who went on to lift the trophy. Selection: Tottenham

Cardiff v Arsenal. Cardiff are always strong at home and Arsenal always play weakened sides in the FA Cup. 5/1 for a home win has got to be worth a flutter on last year's semi-finalists. Selection: Cardiff

Liverpool v Everton. Merseyside derbies don't mean as much as they used to and neither does the FA Cup. Liverpool will rest players, Everton won't and the odds will therefore shift to the blue half of Merseyside. Everton can be backed at 9/2. Selection: Everton

This season we will be trying out three different betting strategies:

  • Fixed Odds - as per last year
  • Spread Betting on the Mini Performance Index with IG Index (25 points for a win, 10 for a draw, 10 for a goal)
  • The Monkey (betting on Town to win each game 3-1, i.e. the complete absence of any betting strategy).

Recommended Fixed Odds Bets

  • 1. Ipswich (+2) to beat Chelsea (0) Asian Handicap . (4/5 Bet365),
  • 2. Portsmouth to beat Man Utd. (8/1 Bet365),

Recommended Spread Bet

  • Bournemouth v Wycombe - buy Bournemouth Mini Performance (21) at

The Monkey's Bet

  • Grimsby to win 3-1, 22/1 Bet365

Previous Fixed Odds Bets (1 or 2 bets, around £10 per week each of Rob's own money)

15/01Lincoln to beat Rochdale10/3-£10.00
15/01Luton to beat Darlington7/2-£10.00
06/01Exeter to beat Notts County6/4-£10.00
31/12Accrington to beat Rochdale5/1-£10.00
31/12Bournemouth to beat Darlington4/1-£10.00
23/12Luton to beat Chesterfield14/5-£10.00
23/12Port Vale to beat Rotherham4/1-£10.00
23/12Bournemouth to beat Brentford9/2-£10.00
23/12Shrewsbury to beat Rochdale9/4-£10.00
16/12Grimsby to beat Aldershot9/2-£10.00
16/12Lincoln to beat Notts County7/4+£17.50
11/12Port Vale to beat Bury10/3-£10.00
11/12Macclesfield to beat Chesterfield10/3+£33.33
11/12Bournemouth to beat Rochdale4/1-£10.00
04/12Bournemouth to beat ChesterEvens+£10.00
04/12Bradford to beat Dagenham10/11-£10.00
28/11Aldershot beat Millwall13/2-£10.00
28/11Alferton beat Scunthorpe17/2-£10.00
19/11Notts Co to beat Dagenham12/5-£10.00
19/11Gillingham to beat Bury19/10-£10.00
11/11Grimsby to beat Bury9/2+£45.00
11/11Gillingham to beat Rotherham5/4+£12.50
06/11Northampton to beat Leeds13/2-£10.00
06/11Grimsby to beat Morecambe11/4-£10.00
06/11Bradford to beat MK Dons11/2+£55.00
31/10Dagenham to beat Accrington5/6-£10.00
31/10Luton to beat Shrewsbury4/1-£10.00
27/10Grimsby to beat Dagenham4/1-£10.00
27/10Port Vale to beat Aldershot12/5-£10.00
22/10Rotherham to beat Macclesfield8/5+£16.00
22/10Luton to beat Bury10/3+£33.33
14/10Brentford to beat Aldershot19/10-£10.00
14/10Port Vale to beat Chester2/1+£20.00
09/10Grimsby to beat Wycombe11/4-£10.00
09/10Barnet to beat Dagenham9/2-£10.00
06/10Grimsby to beat Scunthorpe6/1-£10.00
06/10Dagenham to beat Peterborough5/1+£50.00
30/09Shrewsbury beat Darlington2/1-£10.00
30/09Brentford to beat Macclesfield8/11+£7.27
24/09Bradford to beat Shrewsbury3/1-£10.00
24/09Rotherham to beat Dag & Red3/1-£10.00
17/09Dagenham to beat Wycombe3/1-£10.00
17/09Macclesfield to beat Port Vale7/2+£35.00
09/09Rotherham to beat Rochdale11/10-£10.00
09/09Port Vale to beat Darlington11/4-£10.00
04/09Dag & Red to beat Brentford12/5-£10.00
04/09Rotherham to beat Chesterfield21/10-£10.00
28/08Chester to beat Barnet17/10+£17.00
28/08Rotherham to beat Brentford21/10-£10.00
19/08Lincoln to win at Wycombe15/4-£10.00
19/08Port Vale to beat Dag & Red21/10-£10.00
15/08Bradford to win at Macclesfield13/10+£13.00
15/08Rotherham to win at Morecambe21/10+£21.00
06/08Rochdale to beat Grimsby17/10-£10.00
06/08Macclesfield to beat Shrewsbury4/1-£10.00
Total -£15.07

Previous Spread Bets (Around 1 bet per week each of Rob's own money)

15/01Wycombe v Grimsby - buy Grimsby Mini Performance1435S+£21.00
04/12Luton v Wycombe - buy Luton Mini Performance2110B-£6.00
04/12Aldershot v Wycombe - sell Aldershot Mini Performance2155S-£34.00
19/11Rotherham v Bradford - buy Bradford Mini Performance2545S+£20.00
31/10Notts County v Bury - Buy Notts County Mini Performance260S-£26.00
22/10Port Vale v Morecambe - Sell Morecambe mini-performance1910S+£9.00
14/10Rotherham v Barnet - Sell Barnet mini-performance1465S-£51.00
09/10Accrington v Bradford - Sell Accrington mini-performance1920S-£1.00
24/09Accrington v Rochdale - Sell Accrington mini-performance2110S+£11.00
17/09Chester v Shrewsbury - Buy Shrewsbury mini-performance3020S-£10.00
09/09Grimsby v Chester - Buy Chester mini-performance21B55+£34.00
04/09Chesterfield v Rotherham: Buy Rotherham mini performance23S0-£23.00
28/08Rochdale v Bury: Sell Rochdale mini-performance38B20+£8.00
19/08Rotherham v Chester: Buy Rotherham mini-performance38B55+£17.00
15/08Rochdale v Barnet: Sell Rochdale mini-performance31S55-£24.00
06/08Bury v Brentford: Sell Brentford mini performance20S0+£20.00
Total -£35.00

Previous Monkey Bets (£10 per week of the Monkey's pretend money)

15/01Grimsby to win 3-166/1-£10.00
31/12Grimsby to win 3-128/1-£10.00
23/12Grimsby to win 3-116/1-£10.00
17/12Grimsby to win 3-140/1-£10.00
11/12Grimsby to win 3-128/1-£10.00
04/12Grimsby to win 3-133/1-£10.00
19/11Grimsby to win 3-125/1-£10.00
11/11Grimsby to win 3-150/1-£10.00
06/11Grimsby to win 3-133/1-£10.00
31/10Grimsby to win 3-133/1-£10.00
27/10Grimsby to win 3-140/1-£10.00
22/10Grimsby to win 3-125/1-£10.00
14/10Grimsby to win 3-140/1-£10.00
09/10Grimsby to win 3-133/1-£10.00
06/10Grimsby to win 3-180/1-£10.00
30/09Grimsby to win 3-140/1-£10.00
24/09Grimsby to win 3-116/1-£10.00
17/09Grimsby to win 3-133/1-£10.00
09/09Grimsby to win 3-128/1-£10.00
04/09Grimsby to win 3-140/1-£10.00
28/08Grimsby to win 3-133/1-£10.00
19/08Grimsby to win 3-122/1-£10.00
15/08Grimsby to win 3-133/1-£10.00
06/08Grimsby to win 3-118/1-£10.00
Total -£240.00

Every month I try and beat the bookies but now you can try and beat me - with pretend money. Just sign up and join the Grimsby Town team at OLBG.

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