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Beat the Bookies: Week 25

By: Rob Sedgwick
Date: 30/01/2009

LAST week's foray into the Premiership's Big Four and the FA Cup had only limited success. However a tidy win in for Bournemouth over Wycombe in League Two ensured a substantial winning payout on the spread betting which offset the fixed odds tips.

Home > 2008-2009 Season > Beat the Bookies > Week 25

Bradford v Grimsby It's been a season of two halves for Grimsby so far, delimited conveniently and poetically by the change of year at the campaign's half way point. Town are undefeated in the current calendar year, and are literally a different team to that which started the first few games of the season from which 'keeper Phil Barnes is the only survivor. New signings frequently require a significant bedding in period at Blundell Park, but Mike Newell's latest acquisitions have flourished, even - dare we say it at this early stage - promising bountiful harvests in years to come. Bradford in contrast have spluttered all season, scoring plenty of goals but conceding often and ending up with far too many draws to ensure an automatic promotion place. At the moment they have fallen below the play-off zone, and their recent form does not justify their 8/11 price. Instead the value has to be for the Mariners to repeat their three points at Adams Park - available at 4/1. Selection: Grimsby

Exeter v Barnet. A similar fixture is taking place at St James's Park, Exeter, where promotion contenders Exeter take on relegation fodder Barnet. Exeter like Bradford looked like automatic promotion candidates in the early season, but have tailed away of late. They, like the Bantams, are traditionally strong at home, and face an away side under a new manager whose recent results have belied their lowly placement in League Two. Our recommendation can only be the same, with the Bees priced 4/1 with Sky Bet. Selection: Barnet

Wycombe v Accrington. Wycombe have lost their last two games to teams near the bottom (Grimsby and Bournemouth - both recommendations in this column!), and their fans will no doubt be feeling the jitters after the implosions which have taken place around this stage in the season in recent League Two campaigns. New Year's Day really is a harbinger of doom for the Chairboys! Accrington have been consolidating their mid-table status of late and are probably more dangerous for the simple fact they have virtually nothing to play for and have no reason not to go for a win. Stanley are available at an even longer price than the other two and can be picked up for 5/1. Selection: Accrington

Luton v Bury. It's been hard to get used to, but there's no doubt that this season Bury are promotion candidates away from their normal position in the bottom six. Luton need to win the vast majority of their remaining games to have any chance of avoiding the drop and have scored plenty of goals of late, just thrown away a few points when in a winning position. They can't afford to make any more mistakes and will probably be that bit more desperate to win that Bury. The Hatters can be backed to win at 6/4. Selection: Luton

Rotherham v Macclesfield. Rotherham's League Season is over. They are plenty good enough to pick up the points they need to avoid the drop, and they have no chance of reaching the play-offs with their 17 point deduction. Their entire campaign rests on Tuesday night when they need to overcome a 2-0 deficit at home to Scunthorpe to reach Wembley. Macclesfield with their big money owners are starting to become a more signficant force in League Two than in years gone by and the Silkmen should be able to repeat Town's success with the Millers's thoughts largely being on Tuesday night. Macclesfield can be backed to win at 7/2 with Sky Bet. Selection: Macclesfield

This season we will be trying out three different betting strategies:

  • Fixed Odds - as per last year
  • Spread Betting on the Mini Performance Index with IG Index (25 points for a win, 10 for a draw, 10 for a goal)
  • The Monkey (betting on Town to win each game 3-1, i.e. the complete absence of any betting strategy).

Recommended Fixed Odds Bets

  • 1. Grimsby to beat Bradford . (4/1 Bet365),
  • 2. Macclesfield to beat Rotherham. (7/2 Sky Bet),

Recommended Spread Bet

  • Wycombe v Accrington - sell Wycombe Mini Performance (32) at

The Monkey's Bet

  • Grimsby to win 3-1, 50/1 Bet365

Previous Fixed Odds Bets (1 or 2 bets, around £10 per week each of Rob's own money)

21/01Ipswich (+2) to beat Chelsea (0)4/5£0.00
21/01Tottenham to beat Man Utd8/1-£10.00
15/01Lincoln to beat Rochdale10/3-£10.00
15/01Luton to beat Darlington7/2-£10.00
06/01Exeter to beat Notts County6/4-£10.00
31/12Accrington to beat Rochdale5/1-£10.00
31/12Bournemouth to beat Darlington4/1-£10.00
23/12Luton to beat Chesterfield14/5-£10.00
23/12Port Vale to beat Rotherham4/1-£10.00
23/12Bournemouth to beat Brentford9/2-£10.00
23/12Shrewsbury to beat Rochdale9/4-£10.00
16/12Grimsby to beat Aldershot9/2-£10.00
16/12Lincoln to beat Notts County7/4+£17.50
11/12Port Vale to beat Bury10/3-£10.00
11/12Macclesfield to beat Chesterfield10/3+£33.33
11/12Bournemouth to beat Rochdale4/1-£10.00
04/12Bournemouth to beat ChesterEvens+£10.00
04/12Bradford to beat Dagenham10/11-£10.00
28/11Aldershot beat Millwall13/2-£10.00
28/11Alferton beat Scunthorpe17/2-£10.00
19/11Notts Co to beat Dagenham12/5-£10.00
19/11Gillingham to beat Bury19/10-£10.00
11/11Grimsby to beat Bury9/2+£45.00
11/11Gillingham to beat Rotherham5/4+£12.50
06/11Northampton to beat Leeds13/2-£10.00
06/11Grimsby to beat Morecambe11/4-£10.00
06/11Bradford to beat MK Dons11/2+£55.00
31/10Dagenham to beat Accrington5/6-£10.00
31/10Luton to beat Shrewsbury4/1-£10.00
27/10Grimsby to beat Dagenham4/1-£10.00
27/10Port Vale to beat Aldershot12/5-£10.00
22/10Rotherham to beat Macclesfield8/5+£16.00
22/10Luton to beat Bury10/3+£33.33
14/10Brentford to beat Aldershot19/10-£10.00
14/10Port Vale to beat Chester2/1+£20.00
09/10Grimsby to beat Wycombe11/4-£10.00
09/10Barnet to beat Dagenham9/2-£10.00
06/10Grimsby to beat Scunthorpe6/1-£10.00
06/10Dagenham to beat Peterborough5/1+£50.00
30/09Shrewsbury beat Darlington2/1-£10.00
30/09Brentford to beat Macclesfield8/11+£7.27
24/09Bradford to beat Shrewsbury3/1-£10.00
24/09Rotherham to beat Dag & Red3/1-£10.00
17/09Dagenham to beat Wycombe3/1-£10.00
17/09Macclesfield to beat Port Vale7/2+£35.00
09/09Rotherham to beat Rochdale11/10-£10.00
09/09Port Vale to beat Darlington11/4-£10.00
04/09Dag & Red to beat Brentford12/5-£10.00
04/09Rotherham to beat Chesterfield21/10-£10.00
28/08Chester to beat Barnet17/10+£17.00
28/08Rotherham to beat Brentford21/10-£10.00
19/08Lincoln to win at Wycombe15/4-£10.00
19/08Port Vale to beat Dag & Red21/10-£10.00
15/08Bradford to win at Macclesfield13/10+£13.00
15/08Rotherham to win at Morecambe21/10+£21.00
06/08Rochdale to beat Grimsby17/10-£10.00
06/08Macclesfield to beat Shrewsbury4/1-£10.00
Total -£25.07

Previous Spread Bets (Around 1 bet per week each of Rob's own money)

21/01Bournemouth v Wycombe - buy Bournemouth Mini Performance2155S+£34.00
15/01Wycombe v Grimsby - buy Grimsby Mini Performance1435S+£21.00
04/12Luton v Wycombe - buy Luton Mini Performance2110B-£6.00
04/12Aldershot v Wycombe - sell Aldershot Mini Performance2155S-£34.00
19/11Rotherham v Bradford - buy Bradford Mini Performance2545S+£20.00
31/10Notts County v Bury - Buy Notts County Mini Performance260S-£26.00
22/10Port Vale v Morecambe - Sell Morecambe mini-performance1910S+£9.00
14/10Rotherham v Barnet - Sell Barnet mini-performance1465S-£51.00
09/10Accrington v Bradford - Sell Accrington mini-performance1920S-£1.00
24/09Accrington v Rochdale - Sell Accrington mini-performance2110S+£11.00
17/09Chester v Shrewsbury - Buy Shrewsbury mini-performance3020S-£10.00
09/09Grimsby v Chester - Buy Chester mini-performance21B55+£34.00
04/09Chesterfield v Rotherham: Buy Rotherham mini performance23S0-£23.00
28/08Rochdale v Bury: Sell Rochdale mini-performance38B20+£8.00
19/08Rotherham v Chester: Buy Rotherham mini-performance38B55+£17.00
15/08Rochdale v Barnet: Sell Rochdale mini-performance31S55-£24.00
06/08Bury v Brentford: Sell Brentford mini performance20S0+£20.00
Total -£1.00

Previous Monkey Bets (£10 per week of the Monkey's pretend money)

21/01Grimsby to win 3-166/1-£10.00
15/01Grimsby to win 3-166/1-£10.00
31/12Grimsby to win 3-128/1-£10.00
23/12Grimsby to win 3-116/1-£10.00
17/12Grimsby to win 3-140/1-£10.00
11/12Grimsby to win 3-128/1-£10.00
04/12Grimsby to win 3-133/1-£10.00
19/11Grimsby to win 3-125/1-£10.00
11/11Grimsby to win 3-150/1-£10.00
06/11Grimsby to win 3-133/1-£10.00
31/10Grimsby to win 3-133/1-£10.00
27/10Grimsby to win 3-140/1-£10.00
22/10Grimsby to win 3-125/1-£10.00
14/10Grimsby to win 3-140/1-£10.00
09/10Grimsby to win 3-133/1-£10.00
06/10Grimsby to win 3-180/1-£10.00
30/09Grimsby to win 3-140/1-£10.00
24/09Grimsby to win 3-116/1-£10.00
17/09Grimsby to win 3-133/1-£10.00
09/09Grimsby to win 3-128/1-£10.00
04/09Grimsby to win 3-140/1-£10.00
28/08Grimsby to win 3-133/1-£10.00
19/08Grimsby to win 3-122/1-£10.00
15/08Grimsby to win 3-133/1-£10.00
06/08Grimsby to win 3-118/1-£10.00
Total -£250.00

Every month I try and beat the bookies but now you can try and beat me - with pretend money. Just sign up and join the Grimsby Town team at OLBG.

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