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Beat the Bookies: Week 33

By: Rob Sedgwick
Date: 27/03/2009

LAST week's win for Morecambe at Shrewsbury ensured a winning spread bet, and a return to profit in that type of bet for the season. A very small fixed odds loss ensured that our fixed odds tips are still in profit for the fourth year running. The Monkey has yet to get a winner!

Home > 2008-2009 Season > Beat the Bookies > Week 33

It's getting to that stage of the season where for at least half a dozen teams every game is vital, seemingly more important than the rest of the season put together. For other teams the season is effectively over, but a win bonus or two will give some summer spending money.

Grimsby v Aldershot. It's easy to make out that Aldershot are just going to make up the numbers, but it's unlikely to be that comfortable. There were moments in both the home wins over Lincoln and Gillingham when the match could have taken a turn for the opposition but it wasn't to be. But with the new players gelling and some of other players looking much better than before, the Mariners should still be able to pull off a win. Grimsby can be backed at 11/10. Selection: Grimsby

Bury v Bournemouth.Despite their positions at opposite ends of the league table it is Bournemouth who are the form side. Bury have drawn their last four games, although three of them were away and in the fourth they were down to 10 men for most of the game. However at 16/5 the Cherries have got to be the better value. Selection: Bournemouth

Chester v Bradford.Chester look to have got problems both and on and off the pitch, it just remains to be seen how much they knuckle down and overcome them. The will be even more outnumbered against Bradford then they were against us, and their only saving grace is that City have lost the last four (to predominantly top teams). Given Chester's recent form 11/10 for an away win looks a decent price. Selection: Bradford

Chesterfield v Port Vale. Chesterfield can still sneak in the play-offs and Port Vale may be looking for a few more points so they can contemplate going into administration this season (who knows?!). However one factor could be that Chesterfield only played on Wednesday whereas Value have had a week's rest. At 4/1 Vale have to be worth a punt. Selection: Port Vale

Rochdale v Exeter. Both sides and inconsistent to say the least, so expect the unexpected in this game. Dale were reputedly poor in midweek and have also not had much rest. Go for Exeter at 3/1. Selection: Exeter

This season we will be trying out three different betting strategies:

  • Fixed Odds - as per last year
  • Spread Betting on the Mini Performance Index with IG Index (25 points for a win, 10 for a draw, 10 for a goal)
  • The Monkey (betting on Town to win each game 3-1, i.e. the complete absence of any betting strategy).

Recommended Fixed Odds Bets

  • 1. Bradford to beat Chester. (11/10, Bet365)
  • 2. Bournemouth to beat Bury. (16/5, Bet365)

Recommended Spread Bet

  • Rochdale v Exeter: Sell Rochdale Mini Performance, 30,

The Monkey's Bet

  • Grimsby to win 3-1, 16/1 Bet365

Previous Fixed Odds Bets (1 or 2 bets, around £10 per week each of Rob's own money)

20/03Chester to beat Bury13/2-£10.00
20/03Luton to beat Macclesfield16/5+£8.00
12/03Rotherham to beat Rochdale16/5+£32.00
12/03Luton to beat Aldershot2/1-£10.00
05/03Morecambe to beat Dagenham13/5+£26.00
05/03Barnet to beat Chester4/5+£8.00
26/02Bournemouth to beat Gillingham9/2-£10.00
26/02Barnet to beat Chesterfield4/1-£10.00
20/02Barnet to beat Bradford5/2+£25.00
20/02Morecambe to beat Aldershot11/4+£27.50
13/02Barnet to beat Notts County7/2-£10.00
13/02Exeter to beat Aldershot10/11+£9.09
05/02Dagenham to beat Bury11/4-£10.00
30/01Grimsby to beat Bradford4/1-£10.00
30/01Macclesfield to beat Rotherham7/2-£10.00
21/01Ipswich (+2) to beat Chelsea (0)4/5£0.00
21/01Tottenham to beat Man Utd8/1-£10.00
15/01Lincoln to beat Rochdale10/3-£10.00
15/01Luton to beat Darlington7/2-£10.00
06/01Exeter to beat Notts County6/4-£10.00
31/12Accrington to beat Rochdale5/1-£10.00
31/12Bournemouth to beat Darlington4/1-£10.00
23/12Luton to beat Chesterfield14/5-£10.00
23/12Port Vale to beat Rotherham4/1-£10.00
23/12Bournemouth to beat Brentford9/2-£10.00
23/12Shrewsbury to beat Rochdale9/4-£10.00
16/12Grimsby to beat Aldershot9/2-£10.00
16/12Lincoln to beat Notts County7/4+£17.50
11/12Port Vale to beat Bury10/3-£10.00
11/12Macclesfield to beat Chesterfield10/3+£33.33
11/12Bournemouth to beat Rochdale4/1-£10.00
04/12Bournemouth to beat ChesterEvens+£10.00
04/12Bradford to beat Dagenham10/11-£10.00
28/11Aldershot beat Millwall13/2-£10.00
28/11Alferton beat Scunthorpe17/2-£10.00
19/11Notts Co to beat Dagenham12/5-£10.00
19/11Gillingham to beat Bury19/10-£10.00
11/11Grimsby to beat Bury9/2+£45.00
11/11Gillingham to beat Rotherham5/4+£12.50
06/11Northampton to beat Leeds13/2-£10.00
06/11Grimsby to beat Morecambe11/4-£10.00
06/11Bradford to beat MK Dons11/2+£55.00
31/10Dagenham to beat Accrington5/6-£10.00
31/10Luton to beat Shrewsbury4/1-£10.00
27/10Grimsby to beat Dagenham4/1-£10.00
27/10Port Vale to beat Aldershot12/5-£10.00
22/10Rotherham to beat Macclesfield8/5+£16.00
22/10Luton to beat Bury10/3+£33.33
14/10Brentford to beat Aldershot19/10-£10.00
14/10Port Vale to beat Chester2/1+£20.00
09/10Grimsby to beat Wycombe11/4-£10.00
09/10Barnet to beat Dagenham9/2-£10.00
06/10Grimsby to beat Scunthorpe6/1-£10.00
06/10Dagenham to beat Peterborough5/1+£50.00
30/09Shrewsbury beat Darlington2/1-£10.00
30/09Brentford to beat Macclesfield8/11+£7.27
24/09Bradford to beat Shrewsbury3/1-£10.00
24/09Rotherham to beat Dagenham3/1-£10.00
17/09Dagenham to beat Wycombe3/1-£10.00
17/09Macclesfield to beat Port Vale7/2+£35.00
09/09Rotherham to beat Rochdale11/10-£10.00
09/09Port Vale to beat Darlington11/4-£10.00
04/09Dag & Red to beat Brentford12/5-£10.00
04/09Rotherham to beat Chesterfield21/10-£10.00
28/08Chester to beat Barnet17/10+£17.00
28/08Rotherham to beat Brentford21/10-£10.00
19/08Lincoln to win at Wycombe15/4-£10.00
19/08Port Vale to beat Dag & Red21/10-£10.00
15/08Bradford to win at Macclesfield13/10+£13.00
15/08Rotherham to win at Morecambe21/10+£21.00
06/08Rochdale to beat Grimsby17/10-£10.00
06/08Macclesfield to beat Shrewsbury4/1-£10.00
Total +£30.52

Previous Spread Bets (Around 1 bet per week each of Rob's own money)

20/03Shrewsbury v Morecambe - sell Shrewsbury Mini Performance3110S+£21.00
26/02Rochdale v Grimsby - buy Grimsby Mini Performance160S-£16.00
13/02Grimsby v Bury - buy Bury Mini Performance2745B+£18.00
30/01Wycombe v Accrington - sell Wycombe Mini Performance3245S-£13.00
21/01Bournemouth v Wycombe - buy Bournemouth Mini Performance2155S+£34.00
15/01Wycombe v Grimsby - buy Grimsby Mini Performance1435S+£21.00
04/12Luton v Wycombe - buy Luton Mini Performance2110B-£6.00
04/12Aldershot v Wycombe - sell Aldershot Mini Performance2155S-£34.00
19/11Rotherham v Bradford - buy Bradford Mini Performance2545S+£20.00
31/10Notts County v Bury - Buy Notts County Mini Performance260S-£26.00
22/10Port Vale v Morecambe - Sell Morecambe mini-performance1910S+£9.00
14/10Rotherham v Barnet - Sell Barnet mini-performance1465S-£51.00
09/10Accrington v Bradford - Sell Accrington mini-performance1920S-£1.00
24/09Accrington v Rochdale - Sell Accrington mini-performance2110S+£11.00
17/09Chester v Shrewsbury - Buy Shrewsbury mini-performance3020S-£10.00
09/09Grimsby v Chester - Buy Chester mini-performance21B55+£34.00
04/09Chesterfield v Rotherham: Buy Rotherham mini performance23S0-£23.00
28/08Rochdale v Bury: Sell Rochdale mini-performance38B20+£8.00
19/08Rotherham v Chester: Buy Rotherham mini-performance38B55+£17.00
15/08Rochdale v Barnet: Sell Rochdale mini-performance31S55-£24.00
06/08Bury v Brentford: Sell Brentford mini performance20S0+£20.00
Total +£9.00

Previous Monkey Bets (£10 per week of the Monkey's pretend money)

20/03Grimsby to win 3-128/1-£10.00
12/03Grimsby to win 3-180/1-£10.00
05/03Grimsby to win 3-133/1-£10.00
26/02Grimsby to win 3-180/1-£10.00
20/02Grimsby to win 3-166/1-£10.00
13/02Grimsby to win 3-120/1-£10.00
05/02Grimsby to win 3-120/1-£10.00
30/01Grimsby to win 3-150/1-£10.00
21/01Grimsby to win 3-166/1-£10.00
15/01Grimsby to win 3-166/1-£10.00
31/12Grimsby to win 3-128/1-£10.00
23/12Grimsby to win 3-116/1-£10.00
17/12Grimsby to win 3-140/1-£10.00
11/12Grimsby to win 3-128/1-£10.00
04/12Grimsby to win 3-133/1-£10.00
19/11Grimsby to win 3-125/1-£10.00
11/11Grimsby to win 3-150/1-£10.00
06/11Grimsby to win 3-133/1-£10.00
31/10Grimsby to win 3-133/1-£10.00
27/10Grimsby to win 3-140/1-£10.00
22/10Grimsby to win 3-125/1-£10.00
14/10Grimsby to win 3-140/1-£10.00
09/10Grimsby to win 3-133/1-£10.00
06/10Grimsby to win 3-180/1-£10.00
30/09Grimsby to win 3-140/1-£10.00
24/09Grimsby to win 3-116/1-£10.00
17/09Grimsby to win 3-133/1-£10.00
09/09Grimsby to win 3-128/1-£10.00
04/09Grimsby to win 3-140/1-£10.00
28/08Grimsby to win 3-133/1-£10.00
19/08Grimsby to win 3-122/1-£10.00
15/08Grimsby to win 3-133/1-£10.00
06/08Grimsby to win 3-118/1-£10.00
Total -£330.00

Every month I try and beat the bookies but now you can try and beat me - with pretend money. Just sign up and join the Grimsby Town team at OLBG.

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