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Beat the Bookies: Week 35

By: Rob Sedgwick
Date: 09/04/2009

LAST week both the spread bets and the fixed odds came up with a profit. This week there looks a lot of tight games, so expect a lot of draws in League Two this weekend.

Home > 2008-2009 Season > Beat the Bookies > Week 35

Grimsby v Accrington Stanley. Accrington have a good record against us and themselves are on a good run, or were until Paul Mullin left for Bradford. Town though are on a bit of a roll at the moment though and with a big crowd behind them should hopefully pick up another three points. Grimsby can be backed at Evens. Selection: Grimsby

Rochdale v Port Vale.Dale recent form is poor, their only consolation is Port Vale's is even worse. However the pressure in this game will all be on Dale as they need to win to keep in touch with automatic promotion. Port Vale are not very likely to win but at 9/2 are definitely worth considering. Selection: Port Vale

Rotherham v Notts County. A similar game to the Rochdale one, on paper it's a home win but the bookies often overegg the odds at a busy time of the year. County can be backed at 17/4. Selection: Notts County

Lincoln v Luton. There's two way of looking at this game. Either Luton will go on from their cup win on Sunday, or they will have spent all week celebrating and be spent. The former seems a more likely scenario and they will want to reward their fans and overturn what they see as an unjust ban. At 9/4 Luton look a decent price. Selection: Luton

Morecambe v Bradford. Bradford have gone to pieces in recent weeks and Morecambe have dipped after a decent run. Nevertheless the home side have been one of the best value teams in League Two all season as the bookies consistently seem to overprice the Shrimpers. Morecambe this week can be backed at 13/8. Selection: Morecambe

Chesterfield v Darlington. Both sides are inconsistent but there seems to be no reason why Darlo should be as long as 3/1. Selection: Darlington

This season we will be trying out three different betting strategies:

  • Fixed Odds - as per last year
  • Spread Betting on the Mini Performance Index with IG Index (25 points for a win, 10 for a draw, 10 for a goal)
  • The Monkey (betting on Town to win each game 3-1, i.e. the complete absence of any betting strategy).

Recommended Fixed Odds Bets

  • 1. Darlington to beat Chesterfield. (7/2, Sky Bet)
  • 2. Luton to beat Lincoln. (9/4, Bet365)

Recommended Spread Bet

  • Rochdale v Port Vale: Sell Rochdale Mini Performance, 34,

The Monkey's Bet

  • Grimsby to win 3-1, 16/1 Bet365

Previous Fixed Odds Bets (1 or 2 bets, around £10 per week each of Rob's own money)

03/04Grimsby to beat Shrewsbury4/1-£10.00
03/04Bournemouth to beat Rochdale13/8+£16.25
31/03Bradford to beat Chester11/10-£10.00
31/03Bournemouth to beat Bury16/5-£10.00
20/03Chester to beat Bury13/2-£10.00
20/03Luton to beat Macclesfield16/5+£8.00
12/03Rotherham to beat Rochdale16/5+£32.00
12/03Luton to beat Aldershot2/1-£10.00
05/03Morecambe to beat Dagenham13/5+£26.00
05/03Barnet to beat Chester4/5+£8.00
26/02Bournemouth to beat Gillingham9/2-£10.00
26/02Barnet to beat Chesterfield4/1-£10.00
20/02Barnet to beat Bradford5/2+£25.00
20/02Morecambe to beat Aldershot11/4+£27.50
13/02Barnet to beat Notts County7/2-£10.00
13/02Exeter to beat Aldershot10/11+£9.09
05/02Dagenham to beat Bury11/4-£10.00
30/01Grimsby to beat Bradford4/1-£10.00
30/01Macclesfield to beat Rotherham7/2-£10.00
21/01Ipswich (+2) to beat Chelsea (0)4/5£0.00
21/01Tottenham to beat Man Utd8/1-£10.00
15/01Lincoln to beat Rochdale10/3-£10.00
15/01Luton to beat Darlington7/2-£10.00
06/01Exeter to beat Notts County6/4-£10.00
31/12Accrington to beat Rochdale5/1-£10.00
31/12Bournemouth to beat Darlington4/1-£10.00
23/12Luton to beat Chesterfield14/5-£10.00
23/12Port Vale to beat Rotherham4/1-£10.00
23/12Bournemouth to beat Brentford9/2-£10.00
23/12Shrewsbury to beat Rochdale9/4-£10.00
16/12Grimsby to beat Aldershot9/2-£10.00
16/12Lincoln to beat Notts County7/4+£17.50
11/12Port Vale to beat Bury10/3-£10.00
11/12Macclesfield to beat Chesterfield10/3+£33.33
11/12Bournemouth to beat Rochdale4/1-£10.00
04/12Bournemouth to beat ChesterEvens+£10.00
04/12Bradford to beat Dagenham10/11-£10.00
28/11Aldershot beat Millwall13/2-£10.00
28/11Alferton beat Scunthorpe17/2-£10.00
19/11Notts Co to beat Dagenham12/5-£10.00
19/11Gillingham to beat Bury19/10-£10.00
11/11Grimsby to beat Bury9/2+£45.00
11/11Gillingham to beat Rotherham5/4+£12.50
06/11Northampton to beat Leeds13/2-£10.00
06/11Grimsby to beat Morecambe11/4-£10.00
06/11Bradford to beat MK Dons11/2+£55.00
31/10Dagenham to beat Accrington5/6-£10.00
31/10Luton to beat Shrewsbury4/1-£10.00
27/10Grimsby to beat Dagenham4/1-£10.00
27/10Port Vale to beat Aldershot12/5-£10.00
22/10Rotherham to beat Macclesfield8/5+£16.00
22/10Luton to beat Bury10/3+£33.33
14/10Brentford to beat Aldershot19/10-£10.00
14/10Port Vale to beat Chester2/1+£20.00
09/10Grimsby to beat Wycombe11/4-£10.00
09/10Barnet to beat Dagenham9/2-£10.00
06/10Grimsby to beat Scunthorpe6/1-£10.00
06/10Dagenham to beat Peterborough5/1+£50.00
30/09Shrewsbury beat Darlington2/1-£10.00
30/09Brentford to beat Macclesfield8/11+£7.27
24/09Bradford to beat Shrewsbury3/1-£10.00
24/09Rotherham to beat Dagenham3/1-£10.00
17/09Dagenham to beat Wycombe3/1-£10.00
17/09Macclesfield to beat Port Vale7/2+£35.00
09/09Rotherham to beat Rochdale11/10-£10.00
09/09Port Vale to beat Darlington11/4-£10.00
04/09Dag & Red to beat Brentford12/5-£10.00
04/09Rotherham to beat Chesterfield21/10-£10.00
28/08Chester to beat Barnet17/10+£17.00
28/08Rotherham to beat Brentford21/10-£10.00
19/08Lincoln to win at Wycombe15/4-£10.00
19/08Port Vale to beat Dag & Red21/10-£10.00
15/08Bradford to win at Macclesfield13/10+£13.00
15/08Rotherham to win at Morecambe21/10+£21.00
06/08Rochdale to beat Grimsby17/10-£10.00
06/08Macclesfield to beat Shrewsbury4/1-£10.00
Total +£16.77

Previous Spread Bets (Around 1 bet per week each of Rob's own money)

03/04Exeter v Dagenham: Sell Dagenham Mini Performance2010S+£10.00
31/03Rochdale v Exeter - sell Rochdale Mini Performance3030S+£0.00
20/03Shrewsbury v Morecambe - sell Shrewsbury Mini Performance3110S+£21.00
26/02Rochdale v Grimsby - buy Grimsby Mini Performance160S-£16.00
13/02Grimsby v Bury - buy Bury Mini Performance2745B+£18.00
30/01Wycombe v Accrington - sell Wycombe Mini Performance3245S-£13.00
21/01Bournemouth v Wycombe - buy Bournemouth Mini Performance2155S+£34.00
15/01Wycombe v Grimsby - buy Grimsby Mini Performance1435S+£21.00
04/12Luton v Wycombe - buy Luton Mini Performance2110B-£6.00
04/12Aldershot v Wycombe - sell Aldershot Mini Performance2155S-£34.00
19/11Rotherham v Bradford - buy Bradford Mini Performance2545S+£20.00
31/10Notts County v Bury - Buy Notts County Mini Performance260S-£26.00
22/10Port Vale v Morecambe - Sell Morecambe mini-performance1910S+£9.00
14/10Rotherham v Barnet - Sell Barnet mini-performance1465S-£51.00
09/10Accrington v Bradford - Sell Accrington mini-performance1920S-£1.00
24/09Accrington v Rochdale - Sell Accrington mini-performance2110S+£11.00
17/09Chester v Shrewsbury - Buy Shrewsbury mini-performance3020S-£10.00
09/09Grimsby v Chester - Buy Chester mini-performance21B55+£34.00
04/09Chesterfield v Rotherham: Buy Rotherham mini performance23S0-£23.00
28/08Rochdale v Bury: Sell Rochdale mini-performance38B20+£8.00
19/08Rotherham v Chester: Buy Rotherham mini-performance38B55+£17.00
15/08Rochdale v Barnet: Sell Rochdale mini-performance31S55-£24.00
06/08Bury v Brentford: Sell Brentford mini performance20S0+£20.00
Total +£19.00

Previous Monkey Bets (£10 per week of the Monkey's pretend money)

03/04Grimsby to win 3-116/1-£10.00
31/03Grimsby to win 3-116/1-£10.00
20/03Grimsby to win 3-128/1-£10.00
12/03Grimsby to win 3-180/1-£10.00
05/03Grimsby to win 3-133/1-£10.00
26/02Grimsby to win 3-180/1-£10.00
20/02Grimsby to win 3-166/1-£10.00
13/02Grimsby to win 3-120/1-£10.00
05/02Grimsby to win 3-120/1-£10.00
30/01Grimsby to win 3-150/1-£10.00
21/01Grimsby to win 3-166/1-£10.00
15/01Grimsby to win 3-166/1-£10.00
31/12Grimsby to win 3-128/1-£10.00
23/12Grimsby to win 3-116/1-£10.00
17/12Grimsby to win 3-140/1-£10.00
11/12Grimsby to win 3-128/1-£10.00
04/12Grimsby to win 3-133/1-£10.00
19/11Grimsby to win 3-125/1-£10.00
11/11Grimsby to win 3-150/1-£10.00
06/11Grimsby to win 3-133/1-£10.00
31/10Grimsby to win 3-133/1-£10.00
27/10Grimsby to win 3-140/1-£10.00
22/10Grimsby to win 3-125/1-£10.00
14/10Grimsby to win 3-140/1-£10.00
09/10Grimsby to win 3-133/1-£10.00
06/10Grimsby to win 3-180/1-£10.00
30/09Grimsby to win 3-140/1-£10.00
24/09Grimsby to win 3-116/1-£10.00
17/09Grimsby to win 3-133/1-£10.00
09/09Grimsby to win 3-128/1-£10.00
04/09Grimsby to win 3-140/1-£10.00
28/08Grimsby to win 3-133/1-£10.00
19/08Grimsby to win 3-122/1-£10.00
15/08Grimsby to win 3-133/1-£10.00
06/08Grimsby to win 3-118/1-£10.00
Total -£350.00

Every month I try and beat the bookies but now you can try and beat me - with pretend money. Just sign up and join the Grimsby Town team at OLBG.

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