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Beat the Bookies: Week 4

By: Rob Sedgwick
Date: 27/08/2009

LAST weekend was the best sort of winning weekend as it was the Mariners that helped Beat the Bookies clean up, following their 1-0 win at Bury, tipped at 9/2. Only another win for Notts County prevented a perfect weekend.

Home > 2009-2010 Season > Beat the Bookies > Week 4


Chesterfield v Morecambe. This looks like a home banker on paper, but sometimes the secret of successful gambling is to back the unexpected. Morecambe have got off to a poor start, but they showed signs of improvement on Saturday. Chesterfield, who have had a steady start, have never beaten Morecambe at home. They have twice lost to the Shrimpers at Saltergate and the odds of losing again are a generous looking 9/2. Selection: Morecambe

Accrington Stanley v Shrewsbury. The bookies have made this a close contest, with all three outcomes similar prices, largely because the Shrews have such a poor record on the road. However Shrewsbury have much the stronger squad of the two sides and probably deserve to be the favourites, which they are not this time. The Shrews can be backed at 11/5. Selection: Shrewsbury

Rochdale v Bury. Bury had a poor result at home to Grimsby but have won all three away games this season, and have a marvellous record at neighbours Bury's Gigg Lane. An away win priced 21/10 definitely looks one of the best prices on this weekend's coupon. Selection: Bury

Dagenham v Lincoln. Dagenham came back down with a bump at Notts County last week after a great start, and this week you would expect another home win for the Daggers. However Lincoln have a decent record against Dagenham, and won this fixture 3-0 last year. Expect the unexpected at Victoria Road. You can pick up an away win at 10/3. Selection: Lincoln

Barnet v Notts Co. A Beat the Bookies column at the moment is not be complete without the obligatory recommendation to bet on Notts County to lose. This week they are at Underhill and you can pick up a home win at 5/2.

This season we will again be trying out three different betting strategies:

  • Fixed Odds
  • Spread Betting on the Mini Performance Index with IG Index (25 points for a win, 10 for a draw, 10 for a goal)
  • The Monkey (betting on Town to win each game 3-1, i.e. the complete absence of any betting strategy). The Monkey lost every bet last year.


Recommended Fixed Odds Bets

  • 1. Bury to beat Rochdale. . (21/10, Bet365)
  • 2. Lincoln to beat Dagenham . (10/3, Bet365)

Recommended Spread Bet

  • Sell Chesterfield mini-performance (33 at extrabet.com)

The Monkey's Bet

  • Grimsby to win 3-1, 50/1 Bet365

Previous Fixed Odds Bets (1 or 2 bets, around £10 per week each of Rob's own money)

DateBetOddsProfit/Loss
20/08Grimsby to beat Bury7/5+£45.00
20/08Dagenham to beat Notts County5/1-£10.00
14/08Accrington v Lincoln. Under 2.5 goals8/11+£7.27
14/08Bournemouth to beat Rotherham7/5+£14.00
05/08Bradford to beat Notts County3/1-£10.00
05/08Bournemouth to beat Bury12/5+£24.00
01/08Bournemouth to win League Two (£5 EW)16/1Open
01/08Morecambe to be relegated11/1Open
Total +£70.27


Previous Spread Bets (Around 1 bet per week each of Rob's own money)

DateBetPriceBuy/SellActualProfit/Loss
20/08Morecambe v Macclesfield: Sell Morecambe mini performance28S30-£2.00
14/08Barnet v Shrewsbury: Sell Barnet mini performance23S30-£7.00
Total -£9.00

Previous Monkey Bets (£10 per week of the Monkey's pretend money)

DateBetOddsProfit/Loss
20/08Grimsby to win 3-150/1-£10.00
18/08Grimsby to win 3-118/1-£10.00
15/08Grimsby to win 3-118/1-£10.00
11/08Grimsby to win 3-1??/1-£10.00
05/08Grimsby to win 3-133/1-£10.00
Total -£50.00

Every month I try and beat the bookies but now you can try and beat me - with pretend money. Just sign up and join the Grimsby Town team at OLBG.

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