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Beat the Bookies: Week 5

By: Rob Sedgwick
Date: 04/09/2009 (Last updated: 03/09/2009)

LAST weekend was best forgotten, both on the football front and the betting front. Here's hoping this week sees a return to winning ways for both Beat the Bookies and the Mariners.

Home > 2009-2010 Season > Beat the Bookies > Week 4


Port Vale v Grimsby. The bookies are onto us. A poor start to the season it has undoubtedly been, although it has to be said it's been a tough start for the Mariners in terms of the teams who have been put in front of us. Under normal circumstances I'd be biting the bookies hands off at 11/4 for an away win against a Port Vale side who have also had a poor start in the league. However injuries and suspensions have left Grimsby's team decimated for the trip to Vale Park. Nevertheless an away win is still probably the pick of the three options. Selection: Grimsby

Bury v Accrington Stanley. Bury have got off to a poor start to the season and have lost every game at home. Accrington have not exactly had a great start either and have just sold arguably their best player, but given the odds 9/2 is still probably worth an away punt. Selection: Accrington

Rotherham v Chesterfield. Both of these teams are likely to be "up there" at the end of the season. Chesterfield don't lose many and should be good enough for at least a point. They could even go the whole hog and get three points at 11/4. Selection: Chesterfield

Lincoln v Darlington. Two teams with poor records face one another. Lincoln have just sacked their manager, whereas Darlo picked up their first point at the weekend. It's probably a bit of a myth that teams improve straight away when a new man comes in, and the bookies are liable to overcompensate. Therefore the smart bet is to do the opposite of what everyone might think and go for an away win at 11/4. Selection: Darlington

Shrewsbury v Bradford. Bradford are firing on all cylinders again after an indifferent start. They face Shrewsbury, who are strong at home, but not exactly setting the division alight. City should be strong enough for at least a point, and maybe can get all three, which you can back at 11/5. Selection: Bradford

This season we will again be trying out three different betting strategies:

  • Fixed Odds
  • Spread Betting on the Mini Performance Index with IG Index (25 points for a win, 10 for a draw, 10 for a goal)
  • The Monkey (betting on Town to win each game 3-1, i.e. the complete absence of any betting strategy). The Monkey lost every bet last year.


Recommended Fixed Odds Bets

  • 1. Bradford to beat Shrewsbury. . (5/2, Corals)
  • 2. Chesterfield to beat Rotherham. . (11/4, Totesport)

Recommended Spread Bet

  • No bet this week

The Monkey's Bet

  • Grimsby to win 3-1, 33/1 Bet365

Previous Fixed Odds Bets (1 or 2 bets, around £10 per week each of Rob's own money)

DateBetOddsProfit/Loss
27/08Bury to beat Rochdale21/10-£10.00
27/08Lincoln to beat Dagenham10/3-£10.00
20/08Grimsby to beat Bury7/5+£45.00
20/08Dagenham to beat Notts County5/1-£10.00
14/08Accrington v Lincoln. Under 2.5 goals8/11+£7.27
14/08Bournemouth to beat Rotherham7/5+£14.00
05/08Bradford to beat Notts County3/1-£10.00
05/08Bournemouth to beat Bury12/5+£24.00
01/08Bournemouth to win League Two (£5 EW)16/1Open
01/08Morecambe to be relegated11/1Open
Total +£50.27


Previous Spread Bets (Around 1 bet per week each of Rob's own money)

DateBetPriceBuy/SellActualProfit/Loss
27/08Chesterfield v Morecambe: Sell Chesterfield mini-performance33S20+£13.00
20/08Morecambe v Macclesfield: Sell Morecambe mini performance28S30-£2.00
14/08Barnet v Shrewsbury: Sell Barnet mini performance23S30-£7.00
Total +£4.00

Previous Monkey Bets (£10 per week of the Monkey's pretend money)

DateBetOddsProfit/Loss
27/08Grimsby to win 3-150/1-£10.00
20/08Grimsby to win 3-150/1-£10.00
18/08Grimsby to win 3-118/1-£10.00
15/08Grimsby to win 3-118/1-£10.00
11/08Grimsby to win 3-1??/1-£10.00
05/08Grimsby to win 3-133/1-£10.00
Total -£60.00

Every month I try and beat the bookies but now you can try and beat me - with pretend money. Just sign up and join the Grimsby Town team at OLBG.

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