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Beat the Bookies: Week 10

By: Rob Sedgwick
Date: 08/10/2009

LAST Saturday was the start of a depressing weekend best forgotten, both on the football front and the betting front. Never mind, there's plenty more games to contemplate.

Home > 2009-2010 Season > Beat the Bookies > Week 10


This week sees an unusual number of home "bankers" on the coupon with the away sides available at long odds. Anyone who reads this column regularly will know such games are frequently recommended here, and normally we get at least a few winners every season.

In almost every case there's no reason to back the away side other than the bookies have overcooked the favourite, but let's quickly go through the main contenders this week.

Dagenham v Darlington. Away Odds: 6/1. Darlo have lost a lot of games this year, but very few have been by more than the odd goal. Daggers have had a good start, but got only two points from the last three games. Their last home game was a 1-1 draw with Morecambe. Looks like an upset in the making.

Rochdale v Barnet. Away Odds: 10/3. Barnet looked a really good side last week. Yes Rochdale have been doing well, but they lost their last game to Burton.

Rotherham v Hereford. Away Odds: 5/1. Rotherham are on a good run, but Hereford have not been doing that badly recently and at this level very few away teams are justified that long odds.

Notts County v Torquay. Away Odds: 8/1. Notts County's ground has been a fortress this season, but they are having a strange season and have had some poor results. Stranger things have happened, especially live on TV.

Shrewsbury v Port Vale. Away Odds: 15/4. Same story really, but Port Vale are no mugs and are capable of an upset.

This season we will again be trying out three different betting strategies:

  • Fixed Odds
  • Spread Betting on the Mini Performance Index with IG Index (25 points for a win, 10 for a draw, 10 for a goal)
  • The Monkey (betting on Town to win each game 3-1, i.e. the complete absence of any betting strategy). The Monkey lost every bet last year.


Recommended Fixed Odds Bets

  • 1. Barnet to beat Rochdale. . (10/3, Bet365)
  • 2. Torquay to beat Notts Co. . (8/1, Bet365)

Recommended Spread Bet

  • Odds not yet available

The Monkey's Bet

  • Grimsby to win 3-1, 20/1 Bet365

Previous Fixed Odds Bets (1 or 2 bets, around £10 per week each of Rob's own money)

DateBetOddsProfit/Loss
02/10Accrington Stanley to beat Chesterfield15/4-£10.00
02/10Shrewsbury to beat Morecambe6/4-£10.00
25/09Grimsby v Darlington - Under 2.5 goals4/5+£8.00
25/09Morecambe to beat Dagenham5/1-£10.00
17/09Man City to beat Man Utd5/1-£10.00
17/09Port Vale to beat Bury6/5-£10.00
10/09Bradford to beat BurtonEvens-£10.00
10/09Lincoln to beat Bournemouth4/1-£10.00
03/09Bradford to beat Shrewsbury5/2+£25.00
03/09Chesterfield to beat Rotherham11/4-£10.00
27/08Bury to beat Rochdale21/10-£10.00
27/08Lincoln to beat Dagenham10/3-£10.00
20/08Grimsby to beat Bury7/5+£45.00
20/08Dagenham to beat Notts County5/1-£10.00
14/08Accrington v Lincoln. Under 2.5 goals8/11+£7.27
14/08Bournemouth to beat Rotherham7/5+£14.00
05/08Bradford to beat Notts County3/1-£10.00
05/08Bournemouth to beat Bury12/5+£24.00
01/08Bournemouth to win League Two (£5 EW)16/1Open
01/08Morecambe to be relegated11/1Open
Total +£3.27


Previous Spread Bets (Around 1 bet per week each of Rob's own money)

DateBetPriceBuy/SellActualProfit/Loss
25/09Notts County v Port Vale: Buy Port Vale mini-performance15B10-£5.00
17/09Torquay v Grimsby: Buy Grimsby mini-performance21B45+£24.00
27/08Chesterfield v Morecambe: Sell Chesterfield mini-performance33S20+£13.00
20/08Morecambe v Macclesfield: Sell Morecambe mini performance28S30-£2.00
14/08Barnet v Shrewsbury: Sell Barnet mini performance23S30-£7.00
Total +£23.00

Previous Monkey Bets (£10 per week of the Monkey's pretend money)

DateBetOddsProfit/Loss
06/10Grimsby to win 3-166/1-£10.00
03/10Grimsby to win 3-140/1-£10.00
30/09Grimsby to win 3-140/1-£10.00
25/09Grimsby to win 3-114/1-£10.00
17/09Grimsby to win 3-133/1-£10.00
10/09Grimsby to win 3-122/1-£10.00
03/09Grimsby to win 3-133/1-£10.00
27/08Grimsby to win 3-150/1-£10.00
20/08Grimsby to win 3-150/1-£10.00
18/08Grimsby to win 3-118/1-£10.00
15/08Grimsby to win 3-118/1-£10.00
11/08Grimsby to win 3-1??/1-£10.00
05/08Grimsby to win 3-133/1-£10.00
Total -£130.00

Every month I try and beat the bookies but now you can try and beat me - with pretend money. Just sign up and join the Grimsby Town team at OLBG.

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