It's the FA Cup this weekend, which is the footballing equivalent to the Grand National - there are long odds available but to pick a winner you need a large slice of luck.
Here are the best bets for non-league upsets in our view.
Accrington v Salisbury City 9/2
Gateshead v Brentford 4/1
Grimsby v Bath 9/2
Hartlepool v Kettering 6/1
Hereford v Sutton 13/2
Northampton v Fleetwood 11/2
Swindon v Woking 7/1
Millwall v AFC Wimbledon 6/1
Of those we'd recommend Gateshead and Salisbury City above all others.
Of the five all-League Two clashes the following two matches stand out.
Notts County v Bradford Notts County won the equivalent league match 5-0 back in August, but don't let that hide the fact that County have been anything but convincing in the past few games. Granted, neither have Bradford, but the bookies consistently overprice Notts County, and good value can be found by betting on whoever they are playing. County's main priority is also the league and they certainly don't need the money from a cup run. Who knocked them out the JPT this year? Bradford. City can be backed at 4/1. Selection: Bradford
Barnet v Darlington Barnet won the equivalent league game 3-0 only last week, where we tipped Darlo to get something from the game. However they've got a second bite at the cherry and will have learned something from last week where it took quite a while for Barnet to score the first goal. Sky Bet once again stick their necks out quite a bit of the other bookies at 11/2 . Selection: Darlington
This season we will again be trying out three different betting strategies:
- Fixed Odds
- Spread Betting on the Mini Performance Index with IG Index (25 points for a win, 10 for a draw, 10 for a goal)
- The Monkey (betting on Town to win each game 3-1, i.e. the complete absence of any betting strategy). The Monkey lost every bet last year.
Recommended Fixed Odds Bets
- 1. Darlington to beat Barnet. . (11/2, Sky Bet)
- 2. Bradford to beat Notts County. . (4/1, Bet365)
Recommended Spread Bet
The Monkey's Bet
- Grimsby to win 3-1, 11/1 Bet365
Previous Fixed Odds Bets (1 or 2 bets, around £10 per week each of Rob's own money)
| Date | Bet | Odds | Profit/Loss |
|---|
| 22/10 | Darlington to beat Barnet | 5/1 | -£10.00 |
| 22/10 | Accrington Stanley to beat Rochdale | 11/2 | +£55.00 |
| 16/10 | Grimsby to beat Rochdale | 3/1 | -£10.00 |
| 16/10 | Bradford to beat Dagenham | 7/2 | -£10.00 |
| 08/10 | Barnet to beat Rochdale | 10/3 | -£10.00 |
| 08/10 | Torquay to beat Notts Co | 8/1 | -£10.00 |
| 02/10 | Accrington Stanley to beat Chesterfield | 15/4 | -£10.00 |
| 02/10 | Shrewsbury to beat Morecambe | 6/4 | -£10.00 |
| 25/09 | Grimsby v Darlington - Under 2.5 goals | 4/5 | +£8.00 |
| 25/09 | Morecambe to beat Dagenham | 5/1 | -£10.00 |
| 17/09 | Man City to beat Man Utd | 5/1 | -£10.00 |
| 17/09 | Port Vale to beat Bury | 6/5 | -£10.00 |
| 10/09 | Bradford to beat Burton | Evens | -£10.00 |
| 10/09 | Lincoln to beat Bournemouth | 4/1 | -£10.00 |
| 03/09 | Bradford to beat Shrewsbury | 5/2 | +£25.00 |
| 03/09 | Chesterfield to beat Rotherham | 11/4 | -£10.00 |
| 27/08 | Bury to beat Rochdale | 21/10 | -£10.00 |
| 27/08 | Lincoln to beat Dagenham | 10/3 | -£10.00 |
| 20/08 | Grimsby to beat Bury | 7/5 | +£45.00 |
| 20/08 | Dagenham to beat Notts County | 5/1 | -£10.00 |
| 14/08 | Accrington v Lincoln. Under 2.5 goals | 8/11 | +£7.27 |
| 14/08 | Bournemouth to beat Rotherham | 7/5 | +£14.00 |
| 05/08 | Bradford to beat Notts County | 3/1 | -£10.00 |
| 05/08 | Bournemouth to beat Bury | 12/5 | +£24.00 |
| 01/08 | Bournemouth to win League Two (£5 EW) | 16/1 | Open |
| 01/08 | Morecambe to be relegated | 11/1 | Open |
| Total | | +£7.27 |
|---|
Previous Spread Bets (Around 1 bet per week each of Rob's own money)
| Date | Bet | Price | Buy/Sell | Actual | Profit/Loss |
|---|
| 22/10 | Chesterfield v Burton Albion: Sell Chesterfield mini-performance | 30/td> | S | 75 | -£45.00 |
| 16/10 | Darlington v Shrewsbury: Sell Shrewsbury mini-performance | 28 | S | 10 | +£10.00 |
| 25/09 | Notts County v Port Vale: Buy Port Vale mini-performance | 15 | B | 10 | -£5.00 |
| 17/09 | Torquay v Grimsby: Buy Grimsby mini-performance | 21 | B | 45 | +£24.00 |
| 27/08 | Chesterfield v Morecambe: Sell Chesterfield mini-performance | 33 | S | 20 | +£13.00 |
| 20/08 | Morecambe v Macclesfield: Sell Morecambe mini performance | 28 | S | 30 | -£2.00 |
| 14/08 | Barnet v Shrewsbury: Sell Barnet mini performance | 23 | S | 30 | -£7.00 |
| Total | | +£6.00 |
|---|
Previous Monkey Bets (£10 per week of the Monkey's pretend money)
| Date | Bet | Odds | Profit/Loss |
|---|
| 30/10 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 33/1 | -£10.00 |
| 22/10 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 80/1 | -£10.00 |
| 16/10 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 20/1 | -£10.00 |
| 08/10 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 20/1 | -£10.00 |
| 06/10 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 66/1 | -£10.00 |
| 03/10 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 40/1 | -£10.00 |
| 30/09 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 40/1 | -£10.00 |
| 25/09 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 14/1 | -£10.00 |
| 17/09 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 33/1 | -£10.00 |
| 10/09 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 22/1 | -£10.00 |
| 03/09 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 33/1 | -£10.00 |
| 27/08 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 50/1 | -£10.00 |
| 20/08 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 50/1 | -£10.00 |
| 18/08 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 18/1 | -£10.00 |
| 15/08 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 18/1 | -£10.00 |
| 11/08 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | ??/1 | -£10.00 |
| 05/08 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 33/1 | -£10.00 |
| Total | | -£170.00 |
|---|
Every month I try and beat the bookies but now you can try and beat me - with pretend money. Just sign up and join the Grimsby Town team at OLBG.
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