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Beat the Bookies: Week 4

By: Rob Sedgwick
Date: 31/08/2012

LAST week saw another Scunny defeat reap a very good price. Of the six tips there were two winners, another to see a small overall profit.

Home > 2012-2013 Season > Beat the Bookies > Week 4

Things to watch out for this week are the effects of midweek games. Some teams have been involved in the League Cup, others not. Also Liverpool and Newcastle have played in Europe. Generally this gives the opposition a small advantage if they have had an extra rest.

Town have a tough trip to Hereford, who are deserved favourites. The odds currently look about right. Town are around 5/2 which is not tempting enough. The Bulls are generally Evens, and the best bet is probably a draw at 13/5.

  • Southampton v Man Utd - home win (6.8, Smarkets). United have looked far from convincing defensively in their opening games and lost in their last away game at Everton. Saints have never crossed their path before in the league and have a very astute manager who might just mastermind their downfall.

  • Man City v QPR - Draw (8.0, Smarkets). This match should famously have been a draw last year, or even an away win, with QPR having 10 men as well! City have been pretty nervy in their first few games and could drop points this time out.

  • Swansea v Sunderland - away win (3.67, Pinnacle). Swansea have had two good results so far but they have been against "lesser" sides whereas Sunderland have a 0-0 draw at Arsenal to show for their one game so far - hardly a bad result.

  • Hartlepool v Scunthorpe - home win (2.2, Bet 365). Scunny to lose has been the banker of the season so far and we have reaped the profit every game. When will the bookies catch up? Hartlepool had the advantage of not playing in midweek whereas Scunny had an emotional trip to Norwich (where they of course lost).

  • Tranmere v Colchester - home win (2.05, Bet Victor). Tranmere have been excellent this season so far and should be too strong for Colchester, who have drawn all their games, at home.

  • Fleetwood Town v Aldershot - away win (5.25, Unibet). There's not much to separate the two teams after three games with one win each. Shots, though, have lost the last games narrowly, and by all accounts were unlucky to get nothing from both of them.

    bet365

    Previous Fixed Odds Bets (1 or 2 bets, around £10 per week each of Rob's own money)

    DateBetOddsProfit/Loss
    24/08Lincoln City v Macclesfield - home win3.00£-10.00
    24/08Aldershot v Cheltenham - away win3.10£21.00
    24/08Shrewsbury v Tranmere - away win3.10£-10.00
    24/08Scunthorpe v Yeovil - away win3.75£27.50
    24/08Charlton v Hull - home win2.40£-10.00
    24/08Chelsea v Newcastle - draw4.52£-10.00
    17/08Reading v Stoke - draw3.40£24.00
    17/08Crawley Town v Scunthorpe - home win2.10£11.00
    17/08Grimsby v Nuneaton - Grimsby to win by 3 or more4.80£-10.00
    10/08Lincoln City v Kidderminster - home2.83£18.30
    10/08Southport v Grimsby - home win2.97£-10.00
    10/08Hereford v Macclesfield - home win2.42£14.20
    Premier Total £14.00
    Champ Total £-10.00
    L1 Total £28.50
    L2 Total £21.00
    BSP Total £2.50
    Grand Total £56.00

    2012 Summer Record (1 or 2 bets, around £10 per week each of Rob's own money)

    DateBetOddsProfit/Loss
    Rugby League Total£43.10
    Tennis Total£-30.80
    Euro 2012 Total-£15.00
    Cricket Total£21.00
    Baseball Total-£10.00
    Olympics Total£27.50
    Grand Total£37.80

    2011-2012 Record (1 or 2 bets, around £10 per week each of Rob's own money)

    CompetitionProfit/Loss
    Premier Total£-170.60
    Champ Total£-24.90
    L1 Total£4.88
    L2 Total£198.80
    BSP Total£-83.00
    BSS Total£111.80
    Cups Total£21.85
    Grand Total£58.83

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