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Beat the Bookies: Week 9

By: Rob Sedgwick
Date: 05/10/2012

WALSALL'S last minute win at Bournemouth ensured a profitable week for this column at the weekend, aided and abetted by Stockport's drubbing of Ebbsfleet.

Home > 2012-2013 Season > Beat the Bookies > Week 9

Grimsby v Dartford you would expect to be a home win. Dartford have had a good start but have generally played the smaller teams, so the table may slightly overstate their position. However they can only beat who is put in front of them. Sadly the bookies and the market generally fancy Grimsby as well and you'd do well do get much better than 4/5 (in old money) for a Town win. We don't really do odds-on bets so will look elsewhere again this week.

Premier League

  • Man City v Sunderland - draw or away win (4.1, Marathon). Sooner or later Man City are going to lose a league game - the warning signs are all there. After their recent lacklustre games and the fact that they've only won one in six, and been knocked out the cup by Villa you have to fancy Sunderland (who themselves have never lost a game) for at least a draw.


  • Blackpool v Charlton - away win (5.6, Marathon). Blackpool have conceded 8 goals in the last 3 games. Charlton have lost 5 out of 6, but they have all been narrow defeats.

    League One

  • MK Dons v Portsmouth - away win (8.0, Bet365). Portsmouth look like they are getting their act together after 2 wins on the spin, although they remain a highly unpredictable team but at this price are worth a punt.
  • Notts County v Tranmere - away win (3.6, Marathon). County have just won 1 of the last 5 that was against the highly unpredictable Pompey, Tranmere have not lost all season, and have won most of their games with some ease.

    League Two

  • Morecambe v Burton Albion - away win (2.75, Sporting Bet). Burton have lost just 1 of the last 6 and that was narrowly. Morecambe in the same time have done just the opposite and won just one.

    Blue Square Premier

  • Hereford v Stockport - away win. (3.96, Pinnacle). Hereford have fallen away after a promising start and have won just 1 of the last 5. Stockport have lost 1 out of the last 5, and that was a game they were winning and lost thanks to a late Woking comeback.

    Blue Square South

  • Sutton Utd v Tonbridge - draw (3.5, Bet Victor). Both these teams are inclined to draw, especially Sutton whose games tend to be very low scoring, and therefore more likely arithmetically to be draws.


    Previous Fixed Odds Bets (1 or 2 bets, around £10 per week each of Rob's own money)

    28/09Dover v Maidenhead Utd - away win4.33£-10.00
    28/09Forest Green v Lincoln City - draw4.33£-10.00
    28/09Stockport v Ebbsfleet United - home win2.30£13.00
    28/09Bournemouth v Walsall - away win5.56£45.60
    28/09Reading v Newcastle - away win2.50£-10.00
    28/09Fulham v Man City - home win4.80£-10.00
    21/09Liverpool v Man Utd - away win2.79£17.90
    21/09Leicester v Hull - away win4.19£-10.00
    21/09Walsall v Preston - away win2.50£-10.00
    21/09Crawley Town v Tranmere - away win3.75£27.50
    21/09Braintree Town v Stockport - away win6.00£-10.00
    12/09Reading v Tottenham - home win4.00£-10.00
    12/09Sunderland v Liverpool - home win3.60£-10.00
    12/09Brighton v Sheff Wed - away win4.00£-10.00
    12/09Shrewsbury v Scunthorpe - home win1.93£-10.00
    12/09Stevenage v Crewe - away win5.52£-10.00
    12/09Forest Green v Alfreton Town - away win (DNB)4.33£0.00
    06/09Dover v Hayes & Yeading - home win1.95£-10.00
    06/09AFC Telford v Lincoln City - home win2.20£-10.00
    06/09Northampton v AFC Wimbledon - home win1.83£8.33
    31/08Southampton v Man Utd - home win6.80£-10.00
    31/08Man City v QPR - Draw8.00£-10.00
    31/08Swansea v Sunderland - away win3.67£-10.00
    31/08Hartlepool v Scunthorpe - home win2.20£12.00
    31/08Tranmere v Colchester - home win2.05£10.50
    31/08Fleetwood Town v Aldershot - away win5.25£-10.00
    24/08Chelsea v Newcastle - draw4.52£-10.00
    24/08Charlton v Hull - home win2.40£-10.00
    24/08Scunthorpe v Yeovil - away win3.75£27.50
    24/08Shrewsbury v Tranmere - away win3.10£-10.00
    24/08Aldershot v Cheltenham - away win3.10£21.00
    24/08Lincoln City v Macclesfield - home win3.00£-10.00
    17/08Reading v Stoke - draw3.40£24.00
    17/08Crawley Town v Scunthorpe - home win2.10£11.00
    17/08Grimsby v Nuneaton - Grimsby to win by 3 or more4.80£-10.00
    10/08Lincoln City v Kidderminster - home2.83£18.30
    10/08Southport v Grimsby - home win2.97£-10.00
    10/08Hereford v Macclesfield - home win2.42£14.20
    Premier Total £-38.10
    Champ Total £-30.00
    L1 Total £104.10
    L2 Total £9.33
    BSP Total £-14.50
    BSS Total £-10.00
    Cups Total £-10.00
    Grand Total £10.83

    2012 Summer Record (1 or 2 bets, around £10 per week each of Rob's own money)

    Rugby League Total£43.10
    Tennis Total£-30.80
    Euro 2012 Total-£15.00
    Cricket Total£21.00
    Baseball Total-£10.00
    Olympics Total£27.50
    Grand Total£37.80

    2011-2012 Record (1 or 2 bets, around £10 per week each of Rob's own money)

    Premier Total£-170.60
    Champ Total£-24.90
    L1 Total£4.88
    L2 Total£198.80
    BSP Total£-83.00
    BSS Total£111.80
    Cups Total£21.85
    Grand Total£58.83

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