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Beat the Bookies: Week 12

By: Rob Sedgwick
Date: 25/10/2012

TWO winners out of five last week saw another healthy return for the weekend. Boro's win at Brighton was the biggest earner, and Ebbsfleet's late winner against Woking saw another. Shame Town couldn't grab a second half equaliser to make it 3-3!

Home > 2012-2013 Season > Beat the Bookies > Week 12

Town have a good away record but their home record is in danger of becoming average. If you'd bet on Grimsby to win every game you'd be quite a bit down by now. The value has all been in the away win or draw. This week Macclesfield are out of form themselves so it's a hard game to call where the value lies. Town at around Evens at home does not particularly tempt. If in doubt do nowt and look elsewhere, as we have done.

Premier League

  • Stoke v Sunderland - away win (4.57, Pinnacle). Both clubs have drawn a lot of games. Sunderland have lost just once. However Stoke have only won one game all season. Yet most bookies have them around the Evens mark, a few even go odds on! It looks to be quite an even game on paper, so the value has to lie with the away win.

    Championship

  • Leicester v Crystal Palace - away win (7.11, Pinnacle). Both clubs are doing very well at the moment and Leicester have to be strong favourites because they are at home. Both this price looks just daft! Leicester have lost 3 times this season, they are beatable, and strong opposition like Palace have to have a better chance than that.

    League One

  • Tranmere v Preston - away win (3.75, Boylesports). We've tipped Tranmere to win a few times this season, and won, now they have lost 2 on the bounce the time to oppose them has come! Rovers didn't play that badly in there defeats, but in Preston they play top opposition and if they have lost some confidence they could get beaten again.

    League Two

  • Chesterfield v Barnet - away win (6.2, Marathon). Is the Barnet recovery starting early this season? Edgar Davids has triggered a resurgence at Underhill. A crushing win and a good away draw, followed by another tough away trip. The form book suggests the bookies odds are a bit long.

    Blue Square Premier

  • Dartford v Mansfield - away win (3.15, Smarkets). Dartford have wobbled in recent weeks in the league, and suffered an FA Cup exit at home in midweek. Mansfield, the professional club, may benefit from the extra rest they had from not playing during the week.

    bet365

    Previous Fixed Odds Bets (1 or 2 bets, around £10 per week each of Rob's own money)

    DateBetOddsProfit/Loss
    19/10Grimsby v Kidderminster - draw3.60£-10.00
    19/10Forest Green v Dartford - away win5.00£-10.00
    19/10Fleetwood Town v AFC Wimbledon - away win6.50£-10.00
    19/10Brighton v Middlesbrough - away win5.60£46.00
    19/10Woking v Ebbsfleet - away win4.20£32.00
    12/10Gateshead v Cambridge Utd - away win3.44£-10.00
    12/10Bournemouth v Leyton Orient - away win4.31£-10.00
    12/10Fleetwood Town v Wycombe - away win5.82£48.20
    12/10Telford Utd vs Grimsby Town - draw3.52£-10.00
    12/10Eastbourne Borough v Sutton Utd - draw3.60£-10.00
    05/10Blackpool v Charlton - away win5.60£46.00
    05/10Man City v Sunderland - draw or away win4.10£-10.00
    05/10Morecambe v Burton Albion - away win2.75£-10.00
    05/10MK Dons v Portsmouth - away win8.00£-10.00
    05/10Notts County v Tranmere - away win3.60£26.00
    05/10Hereford v Stockport - away win3.96£29.60
    05/10Sutton Utd v Tonbridge - draw3.50£25.00
    28/09Fulham v Man City - home win4.80£-10.00
    28/09Reading v Newcastle - away win2.50£-10.00
    28/09Bournemouth v Walsall - away win5.56£45.60
    28/09Stockport v Ebbsfleet United - home win2.30£13.00
    28/09Forest Green v Lincoln City - draw4.33£-10.00
    28/09Dover v Maidenhead Utd - away win4.33£-10.00
    21/09Braintree Town v Stockport - away win6.00£-10.00
    21/09Crawley Town v Tranmere - away win3.75£27.50
    21/09Walsall v Preston - away win2.50£-10.00
    21/09Leicester v Hull - away win4.19£-10.00
    21/09Liverpool v Man Utd - away win2.79£17.90
    12/09Forest Green v Alfreton Town - away win (DNB)4.33£0.00
    12/09Reading v Tottenham - home win4.00£-10.00
    12/09Sunderland v Liverpool - home win3.60£-10.00
    12/09Brighton v Sheff Wed - away win4.00£-10.00
    12/09Shrewsbury v Scunthorpe - home win1.93£-10.00
    12/09Stevenage v Crewe - away win5.52£-10.00
    06/09Dover v Hayes & Yeading - home win1.95£-10.00
    06/09AFC Telford v Lincoln City - home win2.20£-10.00
    06/09Northampton v AFC Wimbledon - home win1.83£8.33
    31/08Man City v QPR - Draw8.00£-10.00
    31/08Swansea v Sunderland - away win3.67£-10.00
    31/08Hartlepool v Scunthorpe - home win2.20£12.00
    31/08Tranmere v Colchester - home win2.05£10.50
    31/08Southampton v Man Utd - home win6.80£-10.00
    31/08Fleetwood Town v Aldershot - away win5.25£-10.00
    24/08Charlton v Hull - home win2.40£-10.00
    24/08Chelsea v Newcastle - draw4.52£-10.00
    24/08Scunthorpe v Yeovil - away win3.75£27.50
    24/08Shrewsbury v Tranmere - away win3.10£-10.00
    24/08Aldershot v Cheltenham - away win3.10£21.00
    24/08Lincoln City v Macclesfield - home win3.00£-10.00
    17/08Reading v Stoke - draw3.40£24.00
    17/08Crawley Town v Scunthorpe - home win2.10£11.00
    17/08Grimsby v Nuneaton - Grimsby to win by 3 or more4.80£-10.00
    10/08Lincoln City v Kidderminster - home2.83£18.30
    10/08Southport v Grimsby - home win2.97£-10.00
    10/08Hereford v Macclesfield - home win2.42£14.20
    Premier Total £-48.10
    Champ Total £62.00
    L1 Total £110.10
    L2 Total £37.53
    BSP Total £-4.90
    BSS Total £-5.00
    Cups Total £12.00
    Grand Total £163.63

    2012 Summer Record (1 or 2 bets, around £10 per week each of Rob's own money)

    DateBetOddsProfit/Loss
    Rugby League Total£43.10
    Tennis Total£-30.80
    Euro 2012 Total-£15.00
    Cricket Total£21.00
    Baseball Total-£10.00
    Olympics Total£27.50
    Grand Total£37.80

    2011-2012 Record (1 or 2 bets, around £10 per week each of Rob's own money)

    CompetitionProfit/Loss
    Premier Total£-170.60
    Champ Total£-24.90
    L1 Total£4.88
    L2 Total£198.80
    BSP Total£-83.00
    BSS Total£111.80
    Cups Total£21.85
    Grand Total£58.83

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