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Beat the Bookies: Week 16

By: Rob Sedgwick
Date: 22/11/2012

NORWICH'S win over Man Utd ensured a healthy profit last week. Although the other three tips all lost a 7/1 winner was more than enough to cover the losing bets.

Home > 2012-2013 Season > Beat the Bookies > Week 16

This week the FA Trophy is a good chance to look for cup shocks. The bookies are being a bit cagey in general and you won't see many huge prices, even for the minnows to win at the professional BSP sides. If you are of a mind to back favourites you could look at each as a chance for value. Town's game against Buxton is a good example. You can back Town at around 1/3 - if you think Town are almost certain to win it's a good price! We generally as regular readers will know though always go for much longer prices than that.

Premier League

  • Tottenham v West Ham - away win (6.28, Pinnacle). Spurs lost last their last four league games and West Ham are doing very well in the league, they won away at Newcastle last time on the road. So why are the form team over 5/1?!

    Championship

  • Barnsley v Cardiff - away win (2.24, Pinnacle). Barnsley's recent form is terrible, and Cardiff are flying high near the top and usually win. There seems only one result.

    League One

  • Walsall v Hartlepool - away win (4.7, Smarkets). Pools have shown signs of improvement under their new manager, points will start to come soon. This is as good a chance as any to win against a totally out-of-form Walsall in a relegation six pointer

    League Two

  • Cheltenham v Barnet - away win (5.5, Sporting Bet). Cheltenham been hammered in last two games. Barnet are not winning regularly but they have stopped the rot to some extent and don't lose many games these days.

    FA Trophy

  • Woking v Farnborough - away win (5.15, 10 Bet). The draw has thrown up an interesting tie of these two rivals. Woking and Farnborough are not far apart, and several players have switched between the two teams in recent years. What's more Woking's recent form is poor and they are starting to lose games at home where they have been strong until recently. Farnborough are handily placed in the BSS, and they'll be desperate to win this tie.

  • Stafford v Southport - home win (3.75, Marathon). Southport are towards the bottom of the BSP form league and the part timers main priority is survival. Stafford are very strong at home this season, and this looks a good candidate for an upset at a value price.

    bet365

    Previous Fixed Odds Bets (1 or 2 bets, around £10 per week each of Rob's own money)

    DateBetOddsProfit/Loss
    16/11Rotherham v Cheltenham - away win4.20£-10.00
    16/11Gillingham v Morecambe - away win6.00£-10.00
    16/11Man City v Aston Villa - away win (DNB)13.00£-10.00
    16/11Norwich v Man Utd - home win8.00£70.00
    08/11Everton v Sunderland - away win8.60£-10.00
    08/11Reading v Norwich - away win3.40£-10.00
    08/11Cheltenham v Burton Albion - away win4.75£-10.00
    08/11Forest Green v Stockport - away win5.09£-10.00
    08/11Tamworth v AFC Telford - away win3.25£-10.00
    01/11Cambridge C v MK Dons - home win11.00£-10.00
    01/11Aldershot v Hendon - away win10.00£-10.00
    01/11Swindon v Macclesfield - away win11.00£100.00
    01/11Sheff Wed v Peterborough - away win4.60£-10.00
    01/11Liverpool v Newcastle - away win6.90£-10.00
    25/10Stoke v Sunderland - away win4.57£-10.00
    25/10Tranmere v Preston - away win3.75£-10.00
    25/10Leicester v Crystal Palace - away win7.11£61.10
    25/10Chesterfield v Barnet - away win6.20£52.00
    25/10Dartford v Mansfield - away win3.15£-10.00
    19/10Woking v Ebbsfleet - away win4.20£32.00
    19/10Grimsby v Kidderminster - draw3.60£-10.00
    19/10Forest Green v Dartford - away win5.00£-10.00
    19/10Fleetwood Town v AFC Wimbledon - away win6.50£-10.00
    19/10Brighton v Middlesbrough - away win5.60£46.00
    12/10Fleetwood Town v Wycombe - away win5.82£48.20
    12/10Bournemouth v Leyton Orient - away win4.31£-10.00
    12/10Gateshead v Cambridge Utd - away win3.44£-10.00
    12/10Telford Utd vs Grimsby Town - draw3.52£-10.00
    12/10Eastbourne Borough v Sutton Utd - draw3.60£-10.00
    05/10Man City v Sunderland - draw or away win4.10£-10.00
    05/10Blackpool v Charlton - away win5.60£46.00
    05/10MK Dons v Portsmouth - away win8.00£-10.00
    05/10Notts County v Tranmere - away win3.60£26.00
    05/10Morecambe v Burton Albion - away win2.75£-10.00
    05/10Hereford v Stockport - away win3.96£29.60
    05/10Sutton Utd v Tonbridge - draw3.50£25.00
    28/09Dover v Maidenhead Utd - away win4.33£-10.00
    28/09Forest Green v Lincoln City - draw4.33£-10.00
    28/09Stockport v Ebbsfleet United - home win2.30£13.00
    28/09Bournemouth v Walsall - away win5.56£45.60
    28/09Reading v Newcastle - away win2.50£-10.00
    28/09Fulham v Man City - home win4.80£-10.00
    21/09Leicester v Hull - away win4.19£-10.00
    21/09Liverpool v Man Utd - away win2.79£17.90
    21/09Walsall v Preston - away win2.50£-10.00
    21/09Crawley Town v Tranmere - away win3.75£27.50
    21/09Braintree Town v Stockport - away win6.00£-10.00
    12/09Forest Green v Alfreton Town - away win (DNB)4.33£0.00
    12/09Stevenage v Crewe - away win5.52£-10.00
    12/09Shrewsbury v Scunthorpe - home win1.93£-10.00
    12/09Brighton v Sheff Wed - away win4.00£-10.00
    12/09Sunderland v Liverpool - home win3.60£-10.00
    12/09Reading v Tottenham - home win4.00£-10.00
    06/09Northampton v AFC Wimbledon - home win1.83£8.33
    06/09AFC Telford v Lincoln City - home win2.20£-10.00
    06/09Dover v Hayes & Yeading - home win1.95£-10.00
    31/08Southampton v Man Utd - home win6.80£-10.00
    31/08Man City v QPR - Draw8.00£-10.00
    31/08Swansea v Sunderland - away win3.67£-10.00
    31/08Hartlepool v Scunthorpe - home win2.20£12.00
    31/08Tranmere v Colchester - home win2.05£10.50
    31/08Fleetwood Town v Aldershot - away win5.25£-10.00
    24/08Chelsea v Newcastle - draw4.52£-10.00
    24/08Charlton v Hull - home win2.40£-10.00
    24/08Scunthorpe v Yeovil - away win3.75£27.50
    24/08Shrewsbury v Tranmere - away win3.10£-10.00
    24/08Aldershot v Cheltenham - away win3.10£21.00
    24/08Lincoln City v Macclesfield - home win3.00£-10.00
    17/08Reading v Stoke - draw3.40£24.00
    17/08Crawley Town v Scunthorpe - home win2.10£11.00
    17/08Grimsby v Nuneaton - Grimsby to win by 3 or more4.80£-10.00
    10/08Lincoln City v Kidderminster - home2.83£18.30
    10/08Southport v Grimsby - home win2.97£-10.00
    10/08Hereford v Macclesfield - home win2.42£14.20
    Premier Total £-28.10
    Champ Total £113.10
    L1 Total £90.10
    L2 Total £69.53
    BSP Total £-34.90
    BSS Total £-5.00
    Cups Total £92.00
    Grand Total £296.73

    2012 Summer Record (1 or 2 bets, around £10 per week each of Rob's own money)

    CompetitionProfit/Loss
    Rugby League Total£43.10
    Tennis Total£-30.80
    Euro 2012 Total-£15.00
    Cricket Total£21.00
    Baseball Total-£10.00
    Olympics Total£27.50
    Grand Total£37.80

    2011-2012 Record (1 or 2 bets, around £10 per week each of Rob's own money)

    CompetitionProfit/Loss
    Premier Total£-170.60
    Champ Total£-24.90
    L1 Total£4.88
    L2 Total£198.80
    BSP Total£-83.00
    BSS Total£111.80
    Cups Total£21.85
    Grand Total£58.83

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