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Beat the Bookies: Week 22

By: Rob Sedgwick
Date: 03/01/2013

THREE winners out of eight meant a healthy profit last week from those games which did take place. 2012 proved to be a very profitable year for Beat the Bookies, let's hope for a repeat in 2013.

Home > 2012-2013 Season > Beat the Bookies > Week 22

Town's performance against Lincoln means it's difficult to recommend a home win in Grimsby v Hereford. The Mariners are strong favourites, but with players leaving the club and Thomas suspended it might be a difficult game. The value probably lies in the draw or away win (4/1 ish). Hereford did manage an impressive win at Kidderminster on New Year's Day.

This weekend it's the glamour weekend of the year and a prime long odds betting opportunity. It's the FA Cup 3rd Round and the key is to pick the winners at the longest odds - and there will be some whoppers, there always are!

FA Cup

  • Hull City v Leyton Orient - away win (9.0, WBX). Russell Slade is a past master of FA Cup upsets (Scarborough, Grimsby, Yeovil and Orient have all had their scalps under Slade's stewardship). Hull's main focus is on promotion and they may well rest players or underestimate the Londoners in this game.
  • Southampton v Chelsea - home win (5.5, Marathon). The league defeat by QPR showed how fragile the "recovery" under Rafa has been. Southampton are a rapidly improving team and it's bound to be a difficult game for the Blues in front of a passionate home crowd.
  • West Ham United v Manchester United - home win (5.5, YouWin). Europe and the Premier League are the main priorities for Man Utd. West Ham will be totally focused on this game and competition, with relegation not an immediate worry for the Hammers, who should give their all.

    Blue Square Premier

  • Gateshead v Nuneaton - away win (4.9, Pinnacle). Nuneaton are no longer the whipping boys they were earlier in the season. Gateshead are going nowhere with just 1 win in 6.
  • Kidderminster v Barrow - away win (7.0, Boylesports). Kidderminster showed they are human last week when they finally lost at home. Maybe the factors which cause the upset at home to Hereford could be at work again?


    Previous Fixed Odds Bets (1 or 2 bets, around £10 per week each of Rob's own money)

    27/12Arsenal v Newcastle - away win9.00£-10.00
    27/12Stoke v Southampton - away win5.20£-10.00
    27/12Southport v Hyde - away win3.15£21.50
    27/12Fulham v Swansea - away win3.65£26.50
    27/12MK Dons v Coventry - away win4.41£34.10
    27/12Rotherham v Accrington Stanley - away win6.60£-10.00
    27/12Exeter v Barnet - away win4.80£-10.00
    27/12Dartford v Cambridge Utd - away win3.20£-10.00
    20/12Bury v Shrewsbury - away win3.21£-10.00
    14/12Liverpool v Aston Villa - away win10.19£91.90
    14/12Doncaster v Coventry - away win3.25£22.50
    14/12Woking -1.5 v Welling United - home win (AH)3.70£-10.00
    14/12Dartford v Tonbridge - away win6.00£-10.00
    14/12Hayes & Yeading v Dover - away win2.00£10.00
    14/12Accrington Stanley v Wycombe - away win3.10£21.00
    07/12Leicester v Derby - away win5.91£-10.00
    07/12Fulham v Newcastle - away win4.75£-10.00
    07/12Swindon v Doncaster - away win4.26£-10.00
    07/12Forest Green v Macclesfield - away win4.33£-10.00
    07/12Grimsby v Tamworth - draw4.31£-10.00
    07/12Luton v Alfreton Town - away win6.50£-10.00
    07/12Woking v Stockport - over 4.5 goals4.75£-10.00
    30/11West Ham v Chelsea - home win4.30£33.00
    30/11Liverpool v Southampton - away win9.00£-10.00
    30/11Oldham v Doncaster - away win5.50£-10.00
    30/11Crawley v Chelmsford - away win8.50£-10.00
    23/11Tottenham v West Ham - away win6.28£-10.00
    23/11Barnsley v Cardiff - away win2.24£12.40
    23/11Walsall v Hartlepool - away win4.70£-10.00
    23/11Cheltenham v Barnet - away win5.50£-10.00
    23/11Woking v Farnborough - away win5.15£-10.00
    23/11Stafford v Southport - home win3.75£-10.00
    16/11Rotherham v Cheltenham - away win4.20£-10.00
    16/11Gillingham v Morecambe - away win6.00£-10.00
    16/11Man City v Aston Villa - away win (DNB)13.00£-10.00
    16/11Norwich v Man Utd - home win8.00£70.00
    08/11Reading v Norwich - away win3.40£-10.00
    08/11Everton v Sunderland - away win8.60£-10.00
    08/11Cheltenham v Burton Albion - away win4.75£-10.00
    08/11Forest Green v Stockport - away win5.09£-10.00
    08/11Tamworth v AFC Telford - away win3.25£-10.00
    01/11Cambridge C v MK Dons - home win11.00£-10.00
    01/11Aldershot v Hendon - away win10.00£-10.00
    01/11Swindon v Macclesfield - away win11.00£100.00
    01/11Sheff Wed v Peterborough - away win4.60£-10.00
    01/11Liverpool v Newcastle - away win6.90£-10.00
    25/10Stoke v Sunderland - away win4.57£-10.00
    25/10Tranmere v Preston - away win3.75£-10.00
    25/10Leicester v Crystal Palace - away win7.11£61.10
    25/10Chesterfield v Barnet - away win6.20£52.00
    25/10Dartford v Mansfield - away win3.15£-10.00
    19/10Woking v Ebbsfleet - away win4.20£32.00
    19/10Grimsby v Kidderminster - draw3.60£-10.00
    19/10Forest Green v Dartford - away win5.00£-10.00
    19/10Fleetwood Town v AFC Wimbledon - away win6.50£-10.00
    19/10Brighton v Middlesbrough - away win5.60£46.00
    12/10Bournemouth v Leyton Orient - away win4.31£-10.00
    12/10Fleetwood Town v Wycombe - away win5.82£48.20
    12/10Gateshead v Cambridge Utd - away win3.44£-10.00
    12/10Telford Utd vs Grimsby Town - draw3.52£-10.00
    12/10Eastbourne Borough v Sutton Utd - draw3.60£-10.00
    05/10Man City v Sunderland - draw or away win4.10£-10.00
    05/10MK Dons v Portsmouth - away win8.00£-10.00
    05/10Blackpool v Charlton - away win5.60£46.00
    05/10Notts County v Tranmere - away win3.60£26.00
    05/10Morecambe v Burton Albion - away win2.75£-10.00
    05/10Hereford v Stockport - away win3.96£29.60
    05/10Sutton Utd v Tonbridge - draw3.50£25.00
    28/09Fulham v Man City - home win4.80£-10.00
    28/09Reading v Newcastle - away win2.50£-10.00
    28/09Bournemouth v Walsall - away win5.56£45.60
    28/09Stockport v Ebbsfleet United - home win2.30£13.00
    28/09Forest Green v Lincoln City - draw4.33£-10.00
    28/09Dover v Maidenhead Utd - away win4.33£-10.00
    21/09Liverpool v Man Utd - away win2.79£17.90
    21/09Leicester v Hull - away win4.19£-10.00
    21/09Walsall v Preston - away win2.50£-10.00
    21/09Crawley Town v Tranmere - away win3.75£27.50
    21/09Braintree Town v Stockport - away win6.00£-10.00
    12/09Forest Green v Alfreton Town - away win (DNB)4.33£0.00
    12/09Stevenage v Crewe - away win5.52£-10.00
    12/09Shrewsbury v Scunthorpe - home win1.93£-10.00
    12/09Brighton v Sheff Wed - away win4.00£-10.00
    12/09Sunderland v Liverpool - home win3.60£-10.00
    12/09Reading v Tottenham - home win4.00£-10.00
    06/09Northampton v AFC Wimbledon - home win1.83£8.33
    06/09AFC Telford v Lincoln City - home win2.20£-10.00
    06/09Dover v Hayes & Yeading - home win1.95£-10.00
    31/08Man City v QPR - Draw8.00£-10.00
    31/08Fleetwood Town v Aldershot - away win5.25£-10.00
    31/08Tranmere v Colchester - home win2.05£10.50
    31/08Hartlepool v Scunthorpe - home win2.20£12.00
    31/08Swansea v Sunderland - away win3.67£-10.00
    31/08Southampton v Man Utd - home win6.80£-10.00
    24/08Charlton v Hull - home win2.40£-10.00
    24/08Chelsea v Newcastle - draw4.52£-10.00
    24/08Scunthorpe v Yeovil - away win3.75£27.50
    24/08Shrewsbury v Tranmere - away win3.10£-10.00
    24/08Aldershot v Cheltenham - away win3.10£21.00
    24/08Lincoln City v Macclesfield - home win3.00£-10.00
    17/08Reading v Stoke - draw3.40£24.00
    17/08Crawley Town v Scunthorpe - home win2.10£11.00
    17/08Grimsby v Nuneaton - Grimsby to win by 3 or more4.80£-10.00
    10/08Lincoln City v Kidderminster - home2.83£18.30
    10/08Southport v Grimsby - home win2.97£-10.00
    10/08Hereford v Macclesfield - home win2.42£14.20
    Premier Total £73.30
    Champ Total £115.50
    L1 Total £106.70
    L2 Total £50.53
    BSP Total £-63.40
    BSS Total £-15.00
    Cups Total £72.00
    Grand Total £339.63

    2012 Summer Record (1 or 2 bets, around £10 per week each of Rob's own money)

    Rugby League Total£43.10
    Tennis Total£-30.80
    Euro 2012 Total-£15.00
    Cricket Total£21.00
    Baseball Total-£10.00
    Olympics Total£27.50
    Grand Total£37.80

    2011-2012 Record (1 or 2 bets, around £10 per week each of Rob's own money)

    Premier Total£-170.60
    Champ Total£-24.90
    L1 Total£4.88
    L2 Total£198.80
    BSP Total£-83.00
    BSS Total£111.80
    Cups Total£21.85
    Grand Total£58.83

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