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Beat the Bookies: Week 1

By: Rob Sedgwick
Date: 30/07/2006

WELCOME to a new season of Beat the Bookies! Last season the bookies were trounced, although unfortunately any winnings (and more besides) were lost on the World Cup! But the familiar world of League Two offers a chance for some rewarding pickings once again.

Home > 2006-2007 Season > Beat the Bookies > Week 1


Probably of most interest at this stage of the season is who is going to go up and who is going to go down. The bookies tend to base their prices on what happened last season, rather than squad and manager changes over the summer, which is often a very important indicator.

The promotion prices are as follows with bet365.com (4 clubs go up):

Swindon6/4
Walsall2/1
Milton Keynes Dons9/4
Wycombe5/2
Peterborough5/2
Bristol Rovers3/1
Wrexham7/2
Hartlepool7/2
Grimsby7/2
Shrewsbury7/2
Lincoln City4/1
Darlington4/1
Accrington Stanley5/1
Hereford5/1
Boston Utd5/1
Chester5/1
Rochdale6/1
Mansfield6/1
Macclesfield7/1
Notts County7/1
Torquay7/1
Stockport10/1
Barnet10/1
Bury16/1

Of the relegation clubs Hartlepool look the best value. Just over a year ago they were in the League One play-offs and have still retained a large part of that squad. I don't fancy MK Dons at all: they are the most reviled club in the Football League and I just feel that will rub off on them in some way, even if they have strengthened their squad over the summer.

Grimsby and Wycombe are up there in the betting because of their performances last season but both have made big changes over the summer including a new manager and neither represents good value.

Personally I'd go for an established side who have the sort of support and ground to give their team a decent home record. Hartlepool, Accrington and Bristol Rovers all fit the bill and of the trio I will go for Hartlepool for promotion. Anyone looking for a total outsider could do not worse than Bury who have made some useful acquisitions over the summer and have a good young manager in Chris Casper now in his first full season.

At the other end of the table the usual suspects have been selected as relegation fodder. The relegation prices are as follows with bet365.com (2 clubs go down):

Bury15/8
Stockport3/1
Barnet10/3
Notts County4/1
Torquay11/2
Rochdale15/2
Mansfield8/1
Boston Utd8/1
Macclesfield15/2
Hereford10/1
Accrington Stanley10/1
Chester10/1
Lincoln City12/1
Grimsby14/1
Shrewsbury16/1
Darlington16/1
Hartlepool16/1
Wrexham16/1
Bristol Rovers16/1
Peterborough25/1
Wycombe25/1
Milton Keynes Dons25/1
Walsall25/1
Swindon40/1

I don't fancy Bury to go down, Stockport and Notts County have had their financial problems but have the fan base to pull free of trouble, Torquay are always good at home and should pick up enough points to stay up at Plainmoor, Rochdale are past masters at staying in this division. Which leaves just Barnet, who were one of the poorest sides in the division this year and have neither the fan base nor tradition to suggest anything but a season spent near the bottom.

Of the sides at longer odds unfortunately you have to look at Grimsby for value at 14/1 who, having lost their manager and a few players, also need to shake off the hangover of Cardiff out of their collective systems. If they fail to win many of their first few games, the crowd could turn against Rodger and the whole familiar cycle of a bad season could begin again. Let's face it the pre-season games haven't exactly gone well either.

Recommended Bets

  • Hartlepool to be promoted (7/2).
  • Barnet to be relegated (10/3).


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This site is by the fans, for the fans, and we will consider articles on any subject relating to the Mariners whether it be related to current news, a nostalgic look back in the past, a story about a player, a game or games in the past, something about Blundell Park or football in general. Click here to submit your article!


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