|
|
Upcoming Fixtures
| Sat 21/03 |
|---|
| French Ligue 1 |
| Toulouse v Lorient |
| Austria Bundesliga |
| FC BW Linz v SV Ried |
| Wolfsberger AC v SCR Altach |
| WSG Tirol v Grazer AK |
| South Africa Premier League |
| Kaizer Chiefs v Magesi |
| Isthmian League South East |
| Jersey Bulls v Eastbourne Town |
| Serbian Super Liga |
| Vojvodina v FK Napredak |
| Slovenian PrvaLiga |
| NK Domzale v Koper |
| Moldovan Super Liga |
| Petrocub-Hincesti v Milsami Orhei |
| Uruguay Primera |
| Montevideo City Torque v Central Espanol |
| CAF Champions League |
| Pyramids FC v FAR Rabat |
| Italian Serie B |
| Monza v Venezia |
| Croatian League |
| Lokomotiva Zagreb v Dinamo Zagreb |
| Polish Ekstraklasa |
| Lechia Gdansk v Pogon Szczecin |
| Italian Serie C, Group A |
| Pro Vercelli v Lumezzane |
 |
| Rich Pickings! |
Beat the Bookies: Week 3
By: Rob Sedgwick
Date: 10/08/2005
THERE'S an old adage in gambling to only bet on what your know. For that reason I'm avoiding betting on anything related to the Premiership as I long along stopped taking more than a passive interest in it.
|
Home > 2005-2006 Season > Beat the Bookies > Week 3 |
That said, if I were to bet I would sell the number of league points Chelsea will pick up over the course of the season. IG Index are currently offering 86.5. The league champions last season managed an exceptional 95, so there isn't a great deal of downside to selling the Blues.
I also have a sneaking feeling that Wigan will overturn Chelsea in the first game of the season at the JJB, for which bet365.com are offering a staggering 8-1. But experience tells me betting against Chelsea is probably my heart ruling my head, so I'll reluctantly give it a miss.
However, this week I turn my attention to the Mariners' second away game of the week at Chester. At this stage of the season I always believe the regular supporter has an advantage over the bookies in that we know who takes free kicks, penalties and so on, whereas the national bookies do not (I presume). All they have to go on is the matches so far, which right now are not many.
Sadly bet365.com are not even offering odds on Town's regular set piece taker Tom Newey scoring, which shows the state of their knowledge! (That will be a bet for a future week when the bookies got round to realising he plays for Grimsby).
For me the player who stands out in the betting is Rob Jones at 40/1 to score the first goal, and 12/1 to score at all. Jones goes up for virtually every free kick and corner and is Town's habitual target on most occasions because of his height and aerial ability. What's more all three Grimsby goals to date have come from set pieces, a notable change from years gone by when a Town corner was usually a good opportunity to nip to the toilet!
12/1 means that if Chester were to play Grimsby on 13 occasions the bookies would expect him to score on average in one of those games. I believe the probability is greater than that - I still expect to lose in a "typical week", but over the course of a season I'm hoping my "margins" will see my winnings in the weeks I am right offset the deficit in the weeks that I lose. We shall see!
Chester v Grimsby scorers
| Player | First Goal | To Score |
|---|---|---|
| Gregg Blundell | 9/2 | 5/4 |
| Michael Branch | 11/2 | 6/4 |
| Ryan Lowe | 11/2 | 6/4 |
| Cortez Belle | 6/1 | 13/8 |
| Michael Reddy | 6/1 | 13/8 |
| Martin Gritton | 13/2 | 7/4 |
| Gavin Lynch | 7/1 | 15/8 |
| Marcus Richardson | 7/1 | 15/8 |
| Rob Booth | 8/1 | 9/4 |
| Andy Parkinson | 17/2 | 9/4 |
| Gary Cohen | 17/2 | 9/4 |
| Craig Dove | 9/1 | 5/2 |
| Stuart Drummond | 12/1 | 7/2 |
| Paul Ashton | 14/1 | 4/1 |
| Nick Hegarty | 18/1 | 9/2 |
| Gary Croft | 22/1 | 6/1 |
| Tony Crane | 22/1 | 6/1 |
| Ben Davies | 22/1 | 6/1 |
| Michael Walsh | 22/1 | 6/1 |
| Jean Paul Kamudimba | 28/1 | 8/1 |
| Terry Barwick | 28/1 | 8/1 |
| Phil Bolland | 33/1 | 9/1 |
| Richard Hope | 33/1 | 9/1 |
| Sean Hessey | 33/1 | 9/1 |
| Robert Jones | 40/1 | 12/1 |
| Glen Downey | 50/1 | 14/1 |
| John McDermott | 50/1 | 14/1 |
| Simon Ramsden | 50/1 | 14/1 |
| Andrew Harris | 50/1 | 14/1 |
| Carl Regan | 50/1 | 14/1 |
| Stephen Vaughan | 50/1 | 14/1 |
| Justin Whittle | 66/1 | 16/1 |
| No Goal | Scorer 15 | 2 |
|
RECOMMENDED BET OF THE WEEK: Rob Jones to Score against Chester |
Previous Bets (£10 per week)
| Date | Bet | Odds | Profit/Loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27/07 | Rushden to get relegated | 5/2 | In progress |
| 03/08 | Sell Lincoln in League Two 60 Index | 13 | In progress |
This site is by the fans, for the fans, and we will consider articles on any subject relating to the Mariners whether it be related to current news, a nostalgic look back in the past, a story about a player, a game or games in the past, something about Blundell Park or football in general. Click here to submit your article!
Related Stories
| Thread Title | Posts | Latest Post | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Barrow Match Thread | 40 | DB | 21/03 15:39 |
| Turi international call-up | 71 | forza ivano | 21/03 15:11 |
| Danny Rose | 19 | Marinerdan | 21/03 14:21 |
| Is there anywhere to watch your highlights with | 8 | Ruuger | 21/03 14:14 |
| JDS | 37 | TownSNAFU5 | 21/03 14:13 |
| Blundell Park | 32 | Ruuger | 21/03 14:12 |
| Prediction Barrow H 25.26 | 40 | promotion plaice | 21/03 13:00 |
| Chesterfield away | 4 | Tinymariner | 21/03 10:29 |
| Lincoln City | 1,266 | rancido | 21/03 10:07 |
| Rovrum sack manager | 53 | NorfolkImp | 21/03 09:17 |