Beat the Bookies: Week 2

By: Rob Sedgwick
Date: 21/08/2007

LAST week's tip of Sunderland to beat Wigan did not fair too well! The moral of the story is to stick to the world of League Two where we are familiar and the bookies are not.

Last week every match in League Two was incredibly tight and the bookies forecast a lot of draws, which there were. This week in several of the matches longer odds are on offer, starting with Grimsby v Macclesfield, where the Silkmen are 3/1 to beat Town. Although the Mariners have not had the best of starts to the season, I would expect them to do no worse then draw at home to Macclesfield, and hopefully do better, especially if Buckley starts with 4-4-2. However 4/5 is not great value for a Town win. Considering both teams have drawn all their league games then 23/10 for a draw is not a bad bet and if I had to put my money anywhere I would reluctantly plump for yet another draw.

The outstanding bet of the week on this week's coupon is Shrewsbury to win at MK Dons. The Shrews, who reached the play-off final last season, are the early league leaders and have strengthened their squad well over the summer. MK Dons are one of the best teams on paper in the division, but have got off to a poor start. However 11/4 for an away win with bet365 (which several bookies are going as low as 9/4 on) is an outstanding bet considering Shrewsbury have won their last four games and not conceded a goal in the process. Snap this bet up before it disappears, which it will do as the weekend approaches!

Another fancied team who have got off to a poor start are Wycombe, who face Bury at home at the weekend. Bury's Bishop, who has come on at half time in the last two games and transformed the Shakers, is likely to start this week against Wycombe, after coming back from injury. Have the bookies taken this into account? I doubt it. Consequently Bury, who shocked MK Dons with an away win on the opening day of the season, are good value at 10/3 to do the same at Wycombe.

Recommended Bets

• 1. Shrewsbury to beat MK Dons (11/4, bet365).
• 2. Bury to beat Wycombe (10/3, bet365).

Previous Bets (1 or 2 bets, around £10 per week each of Rob's own money)

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