The next 20 games.

No one needs reminding how important they will be. Looks like the NL will carry on regardless and we have 20 games to save our ar$es from the drop.

After years of waiting for new owners it would be devastating to end up back where we were 5 years ago, with Paul Hurst and his team trying desperately to break down Dover Athletic at BP.  The last ten years would have counted for nothing.

So now we have what in effect is a mini season, with almost an entire new team to bed in, and the next few games are going to be like a pre season in mid season. Can't remember a team changing so much in such a short space of time.

I think we will need the rest of the month to get up to speed and any positive results will be a bonus as the team and management tries to find a winning formula. It's important we don't fall too far behind, so we give ourselves a fighting chance going into the last knockings of the league.

There has been some decent signings already, but I'm surprised we didn't bring in another centre back. I can only assume that PH thinks the defence isn't the main problem and that strengthening the midfield, attack and the goalkeeping area will bring a tighter defensive unit.

When Hurst took over at Shrewsbury, they were bottom of the league, although he did have longer to turn things around. Difference being that there are 4 relegation spots in League 1, so he had to move them up to at least 5th from bottom. He actually finished 18th, albeit by 1 point above 19th and 20th, who both survived on goal difference. We won't survive on goal difference.

So, to get us to safety, he has to raise us 1 place up the league or better and keep us there. Last season was curtailed, so looking at the previous 5 seasons before that, the points totals for the relegated sides were 41, 46, 46, 34, 41. Being only two relegation spots means it's not often you need the oft quoted 50 points to stay up. That is more likely in the leagues above us.

It looks doable, but a lot will depend on whether this is a 34 points kind of season, or a 46 points one. Just got to better two other sides from here on in. It's going to be nail biting I'm sure.

I don't think it's impossible but I do think it's unlikely. He's signed virtually a new team, in theory, there could be only one player who was here before Hurst arrived in the team on Saturday.

Even if these guys are improvements on what's gone before, Payne and Matete have already shown they potentially have a lot more to offer, it's going to be a big ask to get them to adapt to each other in the middle of such a congested season in such a high-pressure situation.

Stevenage were dreadful, Southend were dreadful and we took one point over the two games. Despite looking way better for periods against Stevenage we still managed to not score when we were on top and lost in horrible circumstances.

I'm hopeful we'll improve but I fear by not enough to catch up 4 points on Stevenage, especially as they have 2 games in hand. We need to pinch results you wouldn't expect us to get points in, hoping teams at the top take us lightly.

Quoted from Mariner_09

I don't think it's impossible but I do think it's unlikely. He's signed virtually a new team, in theory, there could be only one player who was here before Hurst arrived in the team on Saturday.

Even if these guys are improvements on what's gone before, Payne and Matete have already shown they potentially have a lot more to offer, it's going to be a big ask to get them to adapt to each other in the middle of such a congested season in such a high-pressure situation.

Stevenage were dreadful, Southend were dreadful and we took one point over the two games. Despite looking way better for periods against Stevenage we still managed to not score when we were on top and lost in horrible circumstances.

I'm hopeful we'll improve but I fear by not enough to catch up 4 points on Stevenage, especially as they have 2 games in hand. We need to pinch results you wouldn't expect us to get points in, hoping teams at the top take us lightly.

I guess the positive to take from that is that Southend and Stevenage will still be dreadful, while we have basically a new team, Our task is to out perform those two side, and or  Barrow. Over 20 games there is a chance. But it will not be easy.

I will say however that, in my opinion, the squad we had on January 1st would certainly have taken us down.

BetVictor price us at 2/5 to go down, which means it's a little over 70% chance.
Not insurmountable, but very likely that we'll be non-league next season unless the NL is abandoned.

To reach upper 40s to 50 points we currently need a mid table team record to achieve that from now on, say like 8 wins 4 draws and 8 losses would get us to 49 points, where as like every team apart from 1, 12th and above has won more games than they've lost. So putting it like that makes it seem fairly possible.

but the trouble is that relies on a sudden upturn in form, every game this bad run goes on for the task gets harder,until it becomes needing to win your last 8 or so games to stay up.

I think the more of a gap we allow between us stevenage and barrow, the easier it becomes for those teams psychologically too. For me if we don't get a win in the next two games, the task will be too difficult, 3 or 4 more losses and then you're needing to suddenly provide title winning form for the rest of the season to guarantee safety

Resigned to the drop, have been for about 3 weeks now

Hope we survive, cant see it, and Im afraid I think we will become a Wrexham of that league

On a Saturday evening, I normally think we're doomed. By the time the next game comes around I have managed to convince myself it's doable. I even looked at the gap to the play-offs yesterday.

Quoted from Boris Johnson

Resigned to the drop, have been for about 3 weeks now

Hope we survive, cant see it, and Im afraid I think we will become a Wrexham of that league

Why will we become the Wrexham of that league? No suprise you see us going down, but how did you arrive at that comparison?

Thing is now, at least for us, form is irrelevant. The form we had was from a different team. We really have no idea if Hurst has put together a team capable of getting out of this yet. I hope and pray he has.

The good thing about having virtually a whole new team to select is that they are not saddled with the baggage of previous results. Going even further I'd be inclined to separate a few of our 'baggage players' away from the new squad even during training to prevent cross contamination.

Clean slate 20 games, new team. 4-5 games to gell does leave us quite short on games, maybe we can shortcut this process with a behind closed doors match or a ressies game.