It's still on......survival

Credit to Hurst, he's got the lads fighting for our survival.

Still a big ask but 4 draws and a win in our last 5 games gives us hope.

It's not over yet.

Staying up, of course we are. Not a good match to watch but they stuck to their task and got the result.

Get a bit closer to the pack above us and watch them crumble.

Never had any doubt we could stay up.  

Colchester 2-0 up as well, so other results went our way for the first time in yonks

I’ve just done that prediction league thing. We have a very difficult run in...but like it’s been said before anyone can beat anyone in this league.

Too late, wouldn’t expect any less fight from the players.

Come on Town!!

We are on the equivalent of life support!

Quoted from RexFannies

I’ve just done that prediction league thing. We have a very difficult run in...but like it’s been said before anyone can beat anyone in this league.

Have to agree with you on the run in, it’s going to be tough as I’ve just looked, and every game is against someone above us in the league !

Quoted from Gaffer58

Have to agree with you on the run in, it’s going to be tough as I’ve just looked, and every game is against someone above us in the league !

Teams at the bottom do beat teams at the top in end of season battles.

It's a lifeline, but we to still need to beat Walsall on Saturday to give us a realistic chance.  After that the games get very tough, but I'd be optimistic if we can put a bit more pressure on the pack.  Can see Walsall changing manager before Saturday, and almost certainly after if we can beat them.

Walsall need to start thinking of the beach, maybe they'll pass ours

It’s the first rime I’ve dated to look at the table for a few weeks , Jesus we’ve still got a lot to do  

Win on Saturday and I'll believe we can stay up.. I've been happy more than most on here with PH signings, its taken a while but we do have some decent players in our squad now. They've been showing they are up for a fight and digging in but they're now finally grinding out results... LJL, Mateta and the 2 cb's making a huge difference for me.

Like to think so, but not a hope in hells chance of staying up

Great win last night. Have to follow it up with another against Walsall though for it to mean anything. If the gap to Barrow is 4 points on Saturday night we can still believe.

Hopefully the last 5 games we’ve stumbled upon a way of playing now - the same as Barrow did, and we can add some goals to it and turn the single points in to 3s.

Bottom sides always go on runs at the back end of the season and drag themselves safe and there’s no reason why that can’t be us this year but it’s still a huge ask.

Quoted from denni266

Like to think so, but not a hope in hells chance of staying up

Good god man, you are such a fun sponge!..

Quoted from Yoda

Get a bit closer to the pack above us and watch them crumble.

Tune changed you have.

We need atleast 6 points from the next 3 games I think. That would really put us in the mix providing those around us don't pick up many points!

Win on Saturday and I might allow myself to dream a bit. One win in isolation won’t keep us up, but a few strung together builds momentum.

Its the hope that kills you!

Cracking goal!!

Quoted from Yossarian

Cracking goal!!

I wouldn’t know, I’ve only watched it back about fifty times!

The frustration is the lost points from the previous four games. Could easily have won two or three of those and be in a far better position. As much as the performances and results have improved, the points tally is going up at a glacial pace. When you're in mid table, it's frustrating, but when you're bottom, it's painful to see those points slip away.

We're better off than we were after the last round of games though, so let's hope for another gain on Saturday.

It is the hope that finishes you off.  An early goal up at Wembley against Bristol Rovers for example.

Given our dire form this season most of us were about resigned to relegation or thought it probable.  Now we have a glimmer of hope again after an away win.  A win following 4 draws.

Some very encouraging evidence now that the tide has turned (in our favour).   We are due some good luck as well.

10 games and 30 points to play for.  3 points for a win means that a team can make up ground quickly.  

Like distance athletic races, the last lap is where all the action, drama and big positional changes happen.  

We can take advantage if we believe that we can do it.  Confidence is everything in football.

Patent it as the "Paul Hurst Shrewsbury Relegation Escape Model".

The wheels are wobbly but not coming off:  the spokes are good as well.    

1.5 to 1.6 points a game in the last run in and we might just do it. That’s still an improvement in the last 5 games but not out of the question.

I don't want to be a mood hoover as well but....

Escaping relegation usually takes between 40 and 50 points but this year it will definitely be on the high end of that if not even a bit more than 50; Walsall and Port Vale are already above 40, Colchester and Barrow are not far away, and we still have around 10 games to play (depending on the team).

If the level is 50 points we have to get 2/3rds of the points available to us.

We are in good company with Bolton and Stevenage as the only 2 other teams unbeaten in their last 5 league games.

Not really relegation form.  We were before and need to be better for the rest of the season.

Quoted from BobbyCummingsTackle

I don't want to be a mood hoover as well but....

Escaping relegation usually takes between 40 and 50 points but this year it will definitely be on the high end of that if not even a bit more than 50; Walsall and Port Vale are already above 40, Colchester and Barrow are not far away, and we still have around 10 games to play (depending on the team).

If the level is 50 points we have to get 2/3rds of the points available to us.

My gut feeling is that realistically, and with our goal difference, we are going to need at least 47 points.

13 points from the next 9? Final match on 8 May against a promoted and drunk Cambridge Utd for the 3 points to get us to 47?

Beat Walsall and it definitely starts to look a little brighter

Quoted from Northbank Mariner

Good god man, you are such a fun sponge!..

You have to be realistic .Too many false dawns . Would rather be read for the drop than think its not going to happen , Thats all

Quoted from Knut Anders Fosters Voles

My gut feeling is that realistically, and with our goal difference, we are going to need at least 47 points.

13 points from the next 9? Final match on 8 May against a promoted and drunk Cambridge Utd for the 3 points to get us to 47?

Beat Walsall and it definitely starts to look a little brighter

I agree that it's at least 47 - as I said Walsall and Port Vale are only a couple of wins away from that now. And that puts us 16 points adrift of that total and needing 1.6 points per game (that's winning 6 from 10). It also relies on other teams not winning.

I fear that we will claw our way to that total but other teams will keep winning and it will take it away from us.

Walsall must be bad going from this post on their forum. With games behind closed doors though, I'm not sure how he could have watched us much lately, surely rival fans don't pay to watch other teams.

Quoted Text

Staffordsaddler86
7h

100% Hanson and Payne will have a field day against us. I’ve watched Grimsby lately and they are hands down better than us. If there isn’t a change before that game we’re doomed

Quoted from Les Brechin

Walsall must be bad going from this post on their forum. With games behind closed doors though, I'm not sure how he could have watched us much lately, surely rival fans don't pay to watch other teams.

“If you’re not paying £10 to scout other League 2 teams are you really a Town fan?” 😏😀

F.Noche (2021)

Quoted from Les Brechin

Walsall must be bad going from this post on their forum. With games behind closed doors though, I'm not sure how he could have watched us much lately, surely rival fans don't pay to watch other teams.

How things change so quickly in this game! Hanson and Payne are a feared strikeforce and we have a team that is described as 'hands down better....'

Walsall must be bloody dreadful.

Quoted from BobbyCummingsTackle

I don't want to be a mood hoover as well but....

Escaping relegation usually takes between 40 and 50 points but this year it will definitely be on the high end of that if not even a bit more than 50; Walsall and Port Vale are already above 40, Colchester and Barrow are not far away, and we still have around 10 games to play (depending on the team).

If the level is 50 points we have to get 2/3rds of the points available to us.

I agree, the points total to stay up looks like it will be on the high side this season. The last 5 seasons excluding last season, which was curtailed, teams needed on average 44 points. The standard this season is poor and springs up some results that you would not expect normally so on the day anybody can beat anybody. My gut feeling is 49 points will be enough which will be the highest needed since 13/14 season when it was 50 points.

Quoted from carrot top

I agree, the points total to stay up looks like it will be on the high side this season. The last 5 seasons excluding last season, which was curtailed, teams needed on average 44 points. The standard this season is poor and springs up some results that you would not expect normally so on the day anybody can beat anybody. My gut feeling is 49 points will be enough which will be the highest needed since 13/14 season when it was 50 points.

What worries me most is that 2 of the teams in the 'battle' already have 40 (and 41 points). They only need 3 wins from 10 games to get them to the 49/50 mark.

I try not to do hyperbole but the game against Walsall is critical for us - a win for us closes the gap and heaps pressure on them. A win for them gives them breathing space and begins to look like they only have to worry about Southend.

If we win and Port Vale lose then Walsall and Port Vale will be crapping themselves. We have no pressure, we are theoretically dead and buried but Walsall and Port Vale could be spiraling down. By the end of the weekend the relegation picture could be a 6 way battle.

form table - last 6 games

15      Grimsby      6      1      4      1      5      5      0      7
16      Oldham      6      1      4      1      5      6      -1      7
17      Port Vale      6      2      1      3      5      6      -1      7
18      Mansfield      6      1      3      2      6      7      -1      6
19      Salford City      6      1      3      2      2      4      -2      6
20      Carlisle Utd      6      1      2      3      7      10      -3      5
21      Bradford      6      1      2      3      4      8      -4      5
22      Southend Utd      6      0      4      2      1      4      -3      4
23      Walsall      6      0      3      3      2      5      -3      3
24      Colchester Utd      6      0      3      3      2      8      -6      3


evn though i think we will still get relegated, continue that form on & southend would get 38,and those 2 would end up between 43 & 45 points . on current form we'd end up with 41 , but of course we still have to play walsall.

just saying.........

Quoted from BobbyCummingsTackle

What worries me most is that 2 of the teams in the 'battle' already have 40 (and 41 points). They only need 3 wins from 10 games to get them to the 49/50 mark.

I try not to do hyperbole but the game against Walsall is critical for us - a win for us closes the gap and heaps pressure on them. A win for them gives them breathing space and begins to look like they only have to worry about Southend.

If we win and Port Vale lose then Walsall and Port Vale will be crapping themselves. We have no pressure, we are theoretically dead and buried but Walsall and Port Vale could be spiraling down. By the end of the weekend the relegation picture could be a 6 way battle.

3 wins not easy though when on a bad run and conceivable that they might only win 1 or 2 at best

Quoted from carrot top

3 wins not easy though when on a bad run and conceivable that they might only win 1 or 2 at best

Agree completely.

Quoted from forza ivano

form table - last 6 games

15      Grimsby      6      1      4      1      5      5      0      7
16      Oldham      6      1      4      1      5      6      -1      7
17      Port Vale      6      2      1      3      5      6      -1      7
18      Mansfield      6      1      3      2      6      7      -1      6
19      Salford City      6      1      3      2      2      4      -2      6
20      Carlisle Utd      6      1      2      3      7      10      -3      5
21      Bradford      6      1      2      3      4      8      -4      5
22      Southend Utd      6      0      4      2      1      4      -3      4
23      Walsall      6      0      3      3      2      5      -3      3
24      Colchester Utd      6      0      3      3      2      8      -6      3


evn though i think we will still get relegated, continue that form on & southend would get 38,and those 2 would end up between 43 & 45 points . on current form we'd end up with 41 , but of course we still have to play walsall.

just saying.........

Really interesting - form suggests that survival is possibly as little as 43 points. That looks much more doable from 31 than 50 does.

Still can't see it being that low - the 4 teams immediately above the relegation zone are already on between 38 and 41 points!

Quoted from BobbyCummingsTackle

I agree that it's at least 47 - as I said Walsall and Port Vale are only a couple of wins away from that now. And that puts us 16 points adrift of that total and needing 1.6 points per game (that's winning 6 from 10). It also relies on other teams not winning.

I fear that we will claw our way to that total but other teams will keep winning and it will take it away from us.

6 wins from 10 is 18 points and therefore 1.8 points per game. Sorry for the pedantry

As things stand PPG doesn't matter nor does the form guide. The only thing that matters is that we have to get more points each match than Barrow, Colchester and Walsall; Port Vale perhaps. None of those and Town could be said to have 'easy' run in and as results have shown bottom can beat top (Cheltenham v Barrow).

As posted by others their isn't a big difference in teams in the league. The difference is in the attitude of the players and last night you couldn't fault any of the team. All Town have to do is replicate that attitude, commitment and passion to a man in the next 10 games. If they do that well stay up.

Would like to see the loan keeper back in. When is he fit? With him and the back 4 we look fairly solid defensively. Biggest fear is that the chances keep dropping to Lenny. Great work rate and attitude, just wish he was calmer in front of goal. That said, if he was he wouldn't be with us!!!!!

Quoted from DB

As things stand PPG doesn't matter nor does the form guide. The only thing that matters is that we have to get more points each match than Barrow, Colchester and Walsall; Port Vale perhaps. None of those and Town could be said to have 'easy' run in and as results have shown bottom can beat top (Cheltenham v Barrow).

As posted by others their isn't a big difference in teams in the league. The difference is in the attitude of the players and last night you couldn't fault any of the team. All Town have to do is replicate that attitude, commitment and passion to a man in the next 10 games. If they do that well stay up.

It’s not about points per game overall, it’s about the points needed to survive.

Quoted from carrot top

I agree, the points total to stay up looks like it will be on the high side this season. The last 5 seasons excluding last season, which was curtailed, teams needed on average 44 points. The standard this season is poor and springs up some results that you would not expect normally so on the day anybody can beat anybody. My gut feeling is 49 points will be enough which will be the highest needed since 13/14 season when it was 50 points.

We've had the perfect storm of stuff going against us this season it feels like, so stands to reason this will be one of the seasons you need high 40's or even 50 points to survive.  Mid 40's or even high 30's have been enough in the past.