25th January

Cast your mind back; it’s 25th January 2022 and we’ve just come off the back of two consecutive defeats to Bromley and Wrexham respectively, and have only won one game in any competition since 26th October. If you want to see what the table looked like back then, scroll to the bottom of the link below:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/60019019

In short, we were 6 points adrift of the play-offs. 6 points behind Solihull, 6 points behind Notts County (who had 2 games in hand), 6 points behind Dagenham, 10 points behind Boreham Wood (who had 2 games in hand), 11 points behind Bromley, and 11 points behind Chesterfield (who also had a game in hand). Bang out of form and way off the pace, the play-offs looked a virtual impossibility to me following that 1-0 defeat to Wrexham.

What happened next is easy to overlook, but also quite incredible. Here’s the games played, points accrued and GD change for the leagues top teams since that date, in order of performance.

Stockport: P 14 - Pts 37 - GD 27
Wrexham: P 14 - Pts 33 - GD 23
Grimsby: P 15 - Pts 33 - GD 11
Solihull: P15 - Pts 30 - GD 14
Halifax: P 14 - Pts 30 - GD 10
Notts: P 16 - Pts 25 - GD 6
Dag’ham: P15 - Pts - 23 GD 10
Torquay: P14 - Pts - 26 - GD 14
B’ Wood: P15 - Pts - 13 - GD -6
Bromley: P13 - Pts - 11 - GD -6

Quite remarkable then that since Wrexham beat us, only Stockport have picked up more points than we have. Wrexham edge us on GD and PPG, but that’s what you get for spending half-a-million quid in January, not to mention what they spent in the summer.

Town’s sudden turnaround from dire form, coupled with total capitulations of Boreham Wood and Bromley has completely changed the complexion of the table. It’s a run of form which includes victories over Notts County, Dagenham, Chesterfield and Stockport. The only teams we’ve played and failed to beat in that list are Boreham Wood (0-0) and Solihull (1-2).

I think that reaffirms that we have nothing to fear. Except, perhaps, Solihull…

Yes, a fantastic run of results but the scary thing is that three of our likely play off rivals have either matched us (Wrexham)  or earned just 3 points less (Halifax and Solihull).  Which shows that they too are in sustained good form.  

It looks like Stockport are nailed on as champions. But that second promotion spot is going to be one hell of a battle.

Our form is black and white, like our colours. clear at the top of the table.  Then dire results as we fell off a cliff.  Then a recovery of excellent results.  

Have other teams ever had this winning/losing/winning pattern for sustained results over a season?

Don't forget Andy Woodman trying to start some beef with us, which has aged wonderfully:

https://twitter.com/btsportfootball/status/1484992959980486661

Bet the buffoon likes us even less now lmao

Some clown (me) predicted a few months ago that none of the teams would finish the league with more than 2.0 ppg. Stockport are only one win from achieving that with 6 games to go.

It's such a tricky division to get out of.

It is indeed a completely different picture.  The task at hand and the unpredictability can be further highlighted by how we performed against Chesterfield and Stockport (red card influence put to one side) yet failed to beat Borehamwood and were then largely outclassed by Solihull on our own patch.  

My main concern has been our performances and results against the better sides, which has eased in recent weeks.  I do think that Wrexham look capable of just blowing teams away at will, which we don't.  Should we meet them in the play-offs I feel we would have to be on absolute fire to see them off, whereas I think they've got enough about them to have an OK day and still have the match winners to do the job.

But football is a funny old game.  There's absolute nothing to say that Wrexham will be left deflated that their surge results in nothing more than a play-off place, or that they have an absolute stinker in the semi-final against the side who finishes 7th.

Quoted from diehardmariner

It is indeed a completely different picture.  The task at hand and the unpredictability can be further highlighted by how we performed against Chesterfield and Stockport (red card influence put to one side) yet failed to beat Borehamwood and were then largely outclassed by Solihull on our own patch.  

My main concern has been our performances and results against the better sides, which has eased in recent weeks.  I do think that Wrexham look capable of just blowing teams away at will, which we don't.  Should we meet them in the play-offs I feel we would have to be on absolute fire to see them off, whereas I think they've got enough about them to have an OK day and still have the match winners to do the job.

But football is a funny old game.  There's absolute nothing to say that Wrexham will be left deflated that their surge results in nothing more than a play-off place, or that they have an absolute stinker in the semi-final against the side who finishes 7th.

There’s no doubt that Wrexham will be strong favourites against anyone they come up against, and of course to win the play-offs as a whole (assuming of course that they don’t catch Stockport, which still isn’t a complete impossibility).

But the play-offs are unpredictable, and as we saw on Friday, games can hinge massively on single moments. All of a sudden, vastly superior teams can find themselves not so superior.

I still believe that winning the play-offs is a long shot for Town this season, though I’d feel slightly more confident should we somehow manage to snaffle 4th spot. One slight advantage over previous campaigns is that I think we would go into this one with less pressure. A play-off finish of any kind this season remains an achievement in my opinion should we achieve it (and I firmly believe we will).

I think the ideal scenario for most at this level (who don’t go up) would be Stockport and Wrexham getting to League 2. The financial ‘clout’ next season would be gone and a more level playing field for everyone else. Chesterfield May well cash in on Tshimanga - but they won’t find a replacement who’ll do what he has.

There is a potential fly in the ointment , particularly for Wrexham. They’ll have all the expectation/pressure in the Play offs. If they made the final there’d be a huge following, but the home tie in the play off would be an opportunity for whoever plays them imho. Solihull would give them a real test for example. I don’t see Wrexham going up via play offs as a formality at all - but if we don’t go up then I hope they do. Always looking towards next season for me, think we’ll have a right good go at getting a title.

Quoted from marinerjase

I think the ideal scenario for most at this level (who don’t go up) would be Stockport and Wrexham getting to League 2. The financial ‘clout’ next season would be gone and a more level playing field for everyone else. Chesterfield May well cash in on Tshimanga - but they won’t find a replacement who’ll do what he has.

There is a potential fly in the ointment , particularly for Wrexham. They’ll have all the expectation/pressure in the Play offs. If they made the final there’d be a huge following, but the home tie in the play off would be an opportunity for whoever plays them imho. Solihull would give them a real test for example. I don’t see Wrexham going up via play offs as a formality at all - but if we don’t go up then I hope they do. Always looking towards next season for me, think we’ll have a right good go at getting a title.

I think there’s the added pressure that many of their big signings will have joined on the assumption of only spending one season in non-league purgatory. They’ll be playing to avoid going to shítholes like Brackley, whilst you’d imagine there are significant financial incentives resting on promotion.

I agree it won’t be a cake walk for them.

Wrexham are the obvious favourites, but you could probably make a strong case for most of the teams.

One thing in our favour I think is our defensive record. Only Halifax have conceded less out of the likely play off contenders, even though we’ve lost 3 more than any other team. Wrexham have lost 6 less yet still conceded more. The losses could be a concern, but they were part of a freak like run in which (apart from Solihull away?) we were pretty much competitive in every game. And even when our confidence was at its lowest ebb, we were always in games and losing by one goal. To be fair, most teams in the play offs have only lost games by the odd goal too, apart from notts who I think are least likely to win (they’ve been on the wrong end of a few thrashings this season).

But we shouldn’t be afraid of anyone. We’ve beat both Chesterfield and Wrexham, and inflicted their biggest losses of the season. We beat notts and they’ve looked the worst out of all the contenders we’ve played. Solihull worry me although we shouldn’t have lost at home and if you compare the team that played them away (anyone remember Bell?), we look much stronger now. We played Halifax both times in the midst of our terrible run, so I don’t think we can read too much into that.

Whoever we play, I’m confident we’ll be competitive and stand a good chance.