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Carlisle promoted

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pen penfras
May 29, 2023, 9:26am

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Quoted from Poojah


In terms of financial competition, both the National League and League Two play-offs haven’t really gone our way, with the wealthiest, or at least “spendiest”, clubs coming up (Notts County) and staying down (Stockport, Salford and Bradford) respectively.

Still, that doesn’t overly concern me; as others have pointed out correlations between budget and promotions are sporadic at best at this level. That, and there’s something oddly comforting about having Town, Stockport, Wrexham and Notts County in the same league together again. Games against those sides provided some of tue very best memories of our 21/22 promotion season. Here’s to the same again!


Promotions haven't gone to the biggest budget teams, but by and large they compete at the top end regularly. There's a huge amount of teams going for it next season. It'll take a monumental effort to compete with them if we don't open the purse strings. We're clearly a long way off that right now
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buckstown
May 29, 2023, 9:27am
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34000 for the final yesterday, less than the national league game
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ginnywings
May 29, 2023, 9:31am

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Quoted from pen penfras


Promotions haven't gone to the biggest budget teams, but by and large they compete at the top end regularly. There's a huge amount of teams going for it next season. It'll take a monumental effort to compete with them if we don't open the purse strings. We're clearly a long way off that right now


Long way off?

We weren't that far away last season considering the rushed pre season we had.

It's not all about budgets.
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pen penfras
May 29, 2023, 9:40am

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Quoted from ginnywings


Long way off?

We weren't that far away last season considering the rushed pre season we had.

It's not all about budgets.


On average points per game, we wouldn't have finished above Salford if we'd played an extra 10 games to them. I'd say that's a long way off.

You're right that pre season was short, but that might be why we started off well considering our players hadn't lost the fitness over the summer.

I'm not saying money is everything, but you're not going to punch above your financial weight for long. How many teams with smaller budgets punch above their weight for more than 5 years?
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acko338
May 29, 2023, 10:01am
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In the Conference, we were the strong team, iutrunning and out passing the opponents.

This season, I thought that Swindon set a Div 2 tone  as we were woeful and totally outplayed.

That, for me, showed how much our passing, and ball dwelling needs to be imoroved. The cup run was all about teams above us allowing Town players space and time, which we made good use of, but other teams who harass and hurry us show up the frailities big style !
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Poojah
May 29, 2023, 10:42am
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Quoted from pen penfras


Promotions haven't gone to the biggest budget teams, but by and large they compete at the top end regularly. There's a huge amount of teams going for it next season. It'll take a monumental effort to compete with them if we don't open the purse strings. We're clearly a long way off that right now


I think it depends what you mean by "opening the purse strings". It's on record that the budget will be bigger than last season, and on the back of higher than forecast gates and an unexpected quarter final cup run I'd expect it to be more than just an incremental step.

But it's unlikely our biggest real terms budget in the best part of two decades will trouble the top 10. At a guess, Bradford, Forest Green, Gillingham, Mansfield, MK Dons, Notts County, Salford, Stockport, and Wrexham will all have deeper pockets than us, and potentially a couple of other wildcards, too. An organic Town budget probably has us somewhere around mid-table, largely due to a series of inorganic budgets elsewhere. That's no fault of anyone at GTFC, rather a mere reflection of the perfect storm of a division we happen to find ourselves in. The richest fourth division of all-time, without a shadow of a doubt.

So what then, should we just write off next season and wait until a few of the sugar-daddied clubs have fúcked off? I don't think so. Stevenage were joint 2nd favourites to be relegated last season, and went on to finish 2nd and go up automatically. Meanwhile none of the top 5 favourites won promotion at all. Carlisle's odds of promotion were longer than our own going into the season. Finance is a big driver of those odds, but ultimately had relatively had little accord with the bottom-line outcomes of the season.

I'm a big believer that our finish of 11th last season is a much bigger achievement than is immediately obvious. It came on the back of a seemingly impossible play-off victory and an impossibly short summer in which we had to regroup, recruit and recondition, ready for the rigours of a significant step-up in level.

The conditions a year on are considerably better. We've had months rather than weeks to prepare for the season ahead, and we are far better equipped with a bona fide recruitment specialist on the payroll, a gold standard data platform at our disposal and a smattering of improved facilities. Oh, and a bigger budget. Let's just explore that a bit deeper for a second.

What does this improved budget look like? I can only speculate, but with circa £1m earned via our cup run and higher than anticipated gates, I would expect it to be somewhere between 20% and 30% north of where we were this season. I don't expect that is going to fundamentally change who we target, but it does make a material difference to our chances of landing them.

For context, that kind of figure means that a top target whom we may have been able to offer £150k to last season means we can now stretch as high as between £180k and £200k - that's a very meaningful difference in a prospective signing's compensation package (about £1,750 a month, after tax). If we work on the assumption that we've not been a million miles away from some targets in the past year, then a 25% increase in offer probably increases our chances of completing a signing by more than 50%. It's a game changing difference.

It is my steadfast belief that the compound effect of our respective advantages over circumstances 12 months ago will see a seismic step forward in our capabilities on the pitch next season. I look to Hurst's second season at Shrewsbury as a barometer of what can be expected. The Shrews finished 3rd, ahead of a host of clubs with significantly larger budgets - including the likes of Charlton, Portsmouth, oh, and Scunthorpe. Remember them? They spent about £6.5m on wages that season, the mentalists.

There is no doubt that League Two is going to be markedly stronger financially this season than it was last, though we should acknowledge we are also a part of that story. Regardless, I expect our own progress to outstrip that of the division as a whole. Does that mean we will go up? Not necessarily. We have a Grand National of a league on our hands next season, but I believe we are absolutely worth an each way bet.

We will be right up there, amongst the Stockport's, Bradford's and the Wrexham's. That is not my hope, that is my expectation.


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Mappers
May 29, 2023, 10:54am
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Quoted from Poojah


I think it depends what you mean by "opening the purse strings". It's on record that the budget will be bigger than last season, and on the back of higher than forecast gates and an unexpected quarter final cup run I'd expect it to be more than just an incremental step.

But it's unlikely our biggest real terms budget in the best part of two decades will trouble the top 10. At a guess, Bradford, Forest Green, Gillingham, Mansfield, MK Dons, Notts County, Salford, Stockport, and Wrexham will all have deeper pockets than us, and potentially a couple of other wildcards, too. An organic Town budget probably has us somewhere around mid-table, largely due to a series of inorganic budgets elsewhere. That's no fault of anyone at GTFC, rather a mere reflection of the perfect storm of a division we happen to find ourselves in. The richest fourth division of all-time, without a shadow of a doubt.

So what then, should we just write off next season and wait until a few of the sugar-daddied clubs have fúcked off? I don't think so. Stevenage were joint 2nd favourites to be relegated last season, and went on to finish 2nd and go up automatically. Meanwhile none of the top 5 favourites won promotion at all. Carlisle's odds of promotion were longer than our own going into the season. Finance is a big driver of those odds, but ultimately had relatively had little accord with the bottom-line outcomes of the season.

I'm a big believer that our finish of 11th last season is a much bigger achievement than is immediately obvious. It came on the back of a seemingly impossible play-off victory and an impossibly short summer in which we had to regroup, recruit and recondition, ready for the rigours of a significant step-up in level.

The conditions a year on are considerably better. We've had months rather than weeks to prepare for the season ahead, and we are far better equipped with a bona fide recruitment specialist on the payroll, a gold standard data platform at our disposal and a smattering of improved facilities. Oh, and a bigger budget. Let's just explore that a bit deeper for a second.

What does this improved budget look like? I can only speculate, but with circa £1m earned via our cup run and higher than anticipated gates, I would expect it to be somewhere between 20% and 30% north of where we were this season. I don't expect that is going to fundamentally change who we target, but it does make a material difference to our chances of landing them.

For context, that kind of figure means that a top target whom we may have been able to offer £150k to last season means we can now stretch as high as between £180k and £200k - that's a very meaningful difference in a prospective signing's compensation package (about £1,750 a month, after tax). If we work on the assumption that we've not been a million miles away from some targets in the past year, then a 25% increase in offer probably increases our chances of completing a signing by more than 50%. It's a game changing difference.

It is my steadfast belief that the compound effect of our respective advantages over circumstances 12 months ago will see a seismic step forward in our capabilities on the pitch next season. I look to Hurst's second season at Shrewsbury as a barometer of what can be expected. The Shrews finished 3rd, ahead of a host of clubs with significantly larger budgets - including the likes of Charlton, Portsmouth, oh, and Scunthorpe. Remember them? They spent about £6.5m on wages that season, the mentalists.

There is no doubt that League Two is going to be markedly stronger financially this season than it was last, though we should acknowledge we are also a part of that story. Regardless, I expect our own progress to outstrip that of the division as a whole. Does that mean we will go up? Not necessarily. We have a Grand National of a league on our hands next season, but I believe we are absolutely worth an each way bet.

We will be right up there, amongst the Stockports, Bradford's and the Wrexham's. That is not my hope, that is my expectation.


I think we have a chance just based on the recent past and history of league 2 .I think you probably have the budget
about right .

Your paragraph about writing off next season is something I have thought about -when, at some point over probably the next 3 seasons league 2 will 'empty out' of the more well financed clubs , the strength of National league teams promoted is going to diminish and it will be a more realistic league to get out of .

Does that mean we don't have a chance of promotion next season? Of course not .
Does it mean a mid table finish would be a bad season ?
Not for me , aslong as we see a continuing plan and better home performances I would take it , if offered now - maybe that's a lack of ambition ; but I feel we are on the right track and it is a matter of time of when but not if  we get to league 1 .
I am patient .
League 1 is a firestorm of a league now , and having the whole club in order will be vital to compete , a little bit longer getting there may not be a bad thing .

That's just my opinion , I know some will expect that million pound striker and the title !
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GrimExile
May 29, 2023, 11:07am
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I'm not saying money is everything, but you're not going to punch above your financial weight for long. How many teams with smaller budgets punch above their weight for more than 5 years?[/quote]


That is a very valid point. Money doesn’t necessarily get you promoted but it certainly helps you to keep progressing. We punched above our weight in what is now the Championship for quite a few years, but without a Championship budget our dropping down through the leagues was horribly spectacular. At least with Jason and Andrew at the helm we are now being run properly, but unless we get a sugar daddy with serious big money in the future we’ll always be a small club compared with say Wrexham. In the end money talks. Having said all of that I’d rather support us than be a Man City supporter who only win every week because they have the most money and can therefore buy the best players in the world. Our club has got heart and is now at the centre of the community and engages with the town, Man City is just a money making business. #UTM
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DB
May 29, 2023, 11:25am
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Money isn't the be-all and end-all, although it helps. Apart from incoming players in the correct positions we also need those with an excellent mental attitude whose heads don't go down when the opposition score.

Proof of the pudding was the team spirit created in our promotion year. We didn't have the budget of Wrexham, and others, but we got promoted. I think Hurst will spend his money wisely to get another galvanised squad together. Out of those 9 mentioned by Poojah some will still be in League 2 at the end of next season, so money is not going to bring success to all of them.


You can please some of the forumites some of the time but not all the forumites all of the time
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May 29, 2023, 12:07pm
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A lot of attention being shown to our budget, and not enough to Paul Hurst's lucky boxer shorts.

Fortuitous underwear = success, surely?

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