League Two xg Table 22/23

I've posted earlier versions of this before but we now have the complete version for the season; in short, what the League Two table looks like based on "expected goals", as opposed to the rather more important statistic of actual goals.

Take it with a pinch of salt if you like, but I do think there's something in this. It has our xG against more or less in line with the number of goals we actually conceded, but has us almost 19 goals down on what we should have scored. According to the table, that should have led to an additional 23 points and a 5th place finish, instead of 11th.

For me, it reaffirms what we anecdotally know from last season. That we lacked composure in front of goal far too often, that we often didn't take advantage of long spells of dominance in games, and that all-in-all we aren't a million miles from being a top side at this level. Yes, League Two will be more competitive next season, but I firmly believe that with a bit of tweaking and a concerted effort to address these fundamental issues, we can be a force to be reckoned with.

[img]https://experimental361.files.wordpress.com/2023/06/2022-23-l2.png[/img]

https://experimental361.com/2023/06/01/expected-goals-table-league-2-2022-23/

I think it's another affirmation of how well we did last season. At points people were losing their heads thinking we might be sucked into another relegation battle but that didn't seem remotely plausible to me. Even when I saw us lose I thought generally we looked ok.

How far do you go and give credence to this sort of stuff?

What about the sitters missed against us? Those opposition shots that hit the woodwork or were brilliantly saved by Crocombe?

What about a wrong decision by the ref that impacts a game, or by the linesman? What if subs should have been used differently, or a different team or formation adopted?

Then there is a high chance that the wrong interpretation of data can be made, perhaps in this case the chances aren't being created for the right sort of player or not created well enough.

It's like a player who is lauded for having a high percentage pass rate, when in reality he passes the ball 5 yards sideways all game.

I would be very wary of stuff like this myself.

Quoted from lew chaterleys lover

How far do you go and give credence to this sort of stuff?

What about the sitters missed against us? Those opposition shots that hit the woodwork or were brilliantly saved by Crocombe?

What about a wrong decision by the ref that impacts a game, or the linesman? What if subs should have been used differently, or a different team or formation adopted?

Then there is a high chance that the wrong interpretation of data can be made, perhaps in this case the chances aren't being created for the right sort of player or not created well enough.

It's like a player who is lauded for having a high percentage pass rate, when in reality he passes the ball 5 yards sideways all game.

I would be very wary of stuff like this myself.

The xg goals against would take into account those things, but I'm surprised our xg against is close to actual.

I think accuracy of these things at this level is hugely questionable. In the Premier league all matches are televised and you can replay every chance multiple times to analyse it. At this level you're relying on some anorak judging it in real time who is likely to be a fan so biased too.

I can only remember a handful of games where we dominated and had chances that didn't go in. I thought our biggest problem was creating chances, not missing them.

There's no way we deserved to be 5th on any metric last season. And anybody that thinks this is accurate has a very short memory of just how little we created at home for 80% of those games.

The makeup of our attack will be entirely different to last season though, so while this does prove we created a lot last season and had we been more clinical we'd have perhaps pushed for a playoff spot it's by no means a given that our xG will remain up next season. I think for all the chat about whether or not McAtee had a good season we'll see a downturn in our xG without him. I don't think his goal/assist stats tell close to the full story of his season and I think we were a much more creative and dynamic team when he played. Obviously, it's not all down to attack though and one of the positives to look at here is that we have retained an entire midfield (bar Morris who we hope we'll upgrade) and three out of four fullbacks that contributed to this.

Quoted from lew chaterleys lover

It's like a player who is lauded for having a high percentage pass rate, when in reality he passes the ball 5 yards sideways all game.

I'm not fully sold on xG either and I'm with you in that stats like this should be questioned but I don't think this 5 yard pass comparison is necessarily fair as xG is calculated specifically on quality of chances. It's not inflated by things like a daisy cutter shot from 30 yards out rolling well wide for example.

Quoted from lew chaterleys lover

How far do you go and give credence to this sort of stuff?

What about the sitters missed against us? Those opposition shots that hit the woodwork or were brilliantly saved by Crocombe?

What about a wrong decision by the ref that impacts a game, or the linesman? What if subs should have been used differently, or a different team or formation adopted?

Then there is a high chance that the wrong interpretation of data can be made, perhaps in this case the chances aren't being created for the right sort of player or not created well enough.

It's like a player who is lauded for having a high percentage pass rate, when in reality he passes the ball 5 yards sideways all game.

I would be very wary of stuff like this myself.

I don't recall many of those at all, if any!

Quoted from Mariner_09

I don't recall many of those at all, if any!

Not exactly every game but he pulled off quite a few superb save over the season.

I bet when Tshimanga was out for the rest of the season at Chesterfield, it made difference to their rating even though he was scoring all their goals.
It's an absolute joke

Interesting, as it ties in with another stat I saw that had us down as having the 2nd highest amounts of shots in home games, behind Northampton. Think Mark Stilton tweeted it - can anyone confirm?

What an absolute crock of garbage this new age statistic is. How can you have an end of season table based on expected goals? They were expected but they didn't come. So theres an end to it. We finished 11th and we scored some goals, some of which were expected and some weren't. Another meaningless fabricated stat for the FIFA generation. It's balderdash.