When can we breathe?

Quoted from ginnywings

Watching last night again reiterated how very poor most of our players are and the season can be summed up by our failure to beat Harrogate yet again.

Have we ever beaten them?

1 point from 18 in league games: https://www.soccerbase.com/teams/team.sd?team_id=1148&team2_id=1222&teamTabs=h2h

3 more points from 4 games should do it. Sutton would need to have a 12 goal swing and get 7 points from their final 3 games, or to win all 3 of them.

3 points makes it impossible for FGR to catch us. It could get twitchy this weekend if Sutton beat Harrogate and we lose to Crewe; especially if Colchester get a win away at Crawley too.

The worst case likely  scenario is we have to beat Swindon to secure safety - I would genuinely have taken that a month or 2 ago . Hopefully it's wrapped up before then, likely 2 or 3 points from the next 2 would do it especially if Colchester don't win on Saturday as then we would go into the game against them knowing aslong as we don't lose they won't realistically be able to catch us .

The absolute guarantee of mathematical safety is 48 points, Sutton can get that and FGR can only get 45. Realistically neither of them are going to get there.

If FGR lose on Saturday they can't get to where we are now. I think one win for us will be enough as that means Sutton won't be able to reach us if they lose on Saturday. Even if Sutton beat Harrogate they then have to play Crawley and MK Dons - right now they need 2 wins to go above us.

And this is before goal difference becomes a factor and our extra game.

(some time ago I suggested that 42 points might be enough and it still might).

I cant see FGR catching us on 43. Lose on Saturday and we don't have to even think about them

So the real question is how many points are Sutton going to get.
Harrogate away for them is tough - Harrogate have to win otherwise their slim play off chances are gone. But it's probably they're best chance of three points.
Crawley at home is a really difficult one for them - Crawley will be desperate for three points and are in good form.
But their hardest game is MK Dons - if MK Dons need a win for automatic on the final day then they are basically stuffed. But if MK Dons can't get promoted automatically , they will probably rest players and you can see Sutton getting something. At the moment I want MK Dons and Mansfield really evenly matched so it's a final day shootout. Obviously with Sutton winning 4 out of the last five they are in form but Im really doubtful they'll manage more than 4 points. It wouldn't surprise me if they top out at 40.

Colchester are five behind us (but not with a worse G/D) Ive seen them as the insurance for a couple of

I've always seen Colchester as our insurance. Saturday will be hard for them away at Crawley. But the big game is the next Tuesday. If they are going to catch us you feel they have to beat us. If we can hold onto a draw I can't really see them catching us. I think this is a must not lose rather than must win game.

After that they've got their best chance of 3 points away at Notts County.  Their final two games at home are an advantage but they will be up against a very in-form Donny (who somehow maybe just might have a chance at the play offs) and Crewe who I suspect will need three points to assure a play off place.

If we don't lose to them then I don't see how they overhaul us. If we do lose that one they probably will. Colchester are the hardest to predict. I can see them getting 9 more points but I can also see them getting maybe 3 more points.

On to us. Realistically, I cant see us getting anything against Crewe on Saturday or against Crawley on the final day of the season. If we get a point against Colchester or a win against Swindon (both of which should be very achievable) I think thats basically it. The danger is that we lost 5 in a row - it;s the type of intercourse up only Grimsby could do to be honest. But in reality I just can't see it. My guess is that we end up on 47 Points and well safe.

This thread is making me breathe into a paper bag.

Here’s a quick look at what each of our relegation rivals need to do to surpass us, without us winning another point:

FGR (3 games left) - 3 wins, or 2 wins 1 draw + 12GD swing

Sutton (3 games left) - 2 wins, 1 win 2 draws, or 1 win 1 draw + 7GD swing

Colchester (5 games left) - 2 wins, 1 win 3 draws, or 1 win 2 draws + 2GD swing

Fixtures remaining:

FGR
Wrexham (a)
Morecambe (a)
Notts County (h)

Sutton
Harrogate (a)
Crawley (h)
MK Dons (a)

Colchester
Crawley (a)
Town (h)
Notts County (a)
Doncaster (h)
Crewe (h)

—

In a scenario where we fail to pick up another point, there’s a good chance Colchester get past us, by virtue of the fact it means they’ll have beaten us. But then you look at what Forest Green need to do and who they have to play, and their chances of getting beyond us are infinitesimal - defeat on Saturday effectively relegates them, and you’d have to imagine that’s a likely outcome given they play Wrexham away, who have the single best home record in the league. They’re as good as gone.

So then that leaves us with Sutton as the major variable. Short of a sizeable GD swing (which looks unlikely with so few games remaining), they either need to win 2 of their last 3, or go unbeaten whilst picking up a win in the process. They’ve got 2 away games, against Harrogate and MK Dons, the latter of which may still be battling for automatic promotion when they play them on the final day.

There’s a potential fly in the ointment in that MK Dons might be out of the automatic chase by the time they play Sutton, and resting players, but there may still be an element of wanting to finish 4th for the supposed advantage that gives you in the play-offs. Their only home game is against Crawley, who are currently in the final play-off berth and have the 3rd best away record in the league.

Ultimately, Forest Green are gone and Sutton have it all to do. And that’s if we stay as we are in terms of points, with another 4 games to go of our own. Personally, I think the probability of us staying up with our current points total is high, and still think we’ll pick up another point or two (we ought to be beating Swindon at home).

I’m with everyone else who wants this wretched season over, but I’m very confident that it at least ends with a modicum of relief.

It's Sutton's resurgence that's wound me up. Agree FGR are done. There's just something about Sutton, our luck, decisions against us and the way the season has gone generally, that refuses to see logic and won't settle until I see two R's against teams hopefully below us.

When most of this squad has gone and we have brought in at least ten new players who can control a ball pass a ball and show some energy and leadership . Until then we are in Groundhog Day.

Quoted from 140381

It's Sutton's resurgence that's wound me up. Agree FGR are done. There's just something about Sutton, our luck, decisions against us and the way the season has gone generally, that refuses to see logic and won't settle until I see two R's against teams hopefully below us.

Suttons resurgence has largely been against teams in lower mid table and FGR. Whilst they've had some good form, they've lost 22 games this season and we shouldn't make them better than what they are whilst obviously not been oblivious to the risk. Personal feeling - they've had their run. To go above us they effectively will have had to win 6 of their last 8 games this season - that'd be extraordinary.

That also is if we fail to get anymore points. Whilst I do understand and appreciate the worry some have, after we lose we do tend to then think we're not going to get anything else - cast your minds back to Barrow, it was similar then. Then followed 4 points from 6. We've lost 3 from 11. Beaten FGR, Franchise, good away points against very good sides at Wimbledon and Gillingham... I'm confident we can get more points on the board, whether they're actually needed is another debate.