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Beat the Bookies: Week 3
By: Rob Sedgwick
THE Fishy came up with a double Fixed Odds winner last week: both Bradford and Rotherham came up with the goods to fill up the early season coffers. Sadly Rochdale thumped Barnet at Spotland which saw a loss realised in the week's recommended spread bet.
This week we're expanding our selections to cover all the teams, rather than just the subset of sides which were in League Two last season. We've now seen both sides home and away, with a cup game thrown in for good measure, so have our yardsticks with which to judge all 24 clubs.
Chester look doomed already after two games on the strength of their performances to date, although they are bound to improve sometime because everyone always does (in our division). They face the trip to in-form Rotherham, who can be backed at 1/2. In the world of League Two it's probably the nearest thing you get to a racing certainty, but you'll need to put a substantial sum on to win anything sizable. Buying Rotherham in a spread bet may however be a way of making money, providing the price is right.
Bradford have looked the business so far and are justifying their pre-season favourites tags. They face many people's selection for promotion Rochdale at Valley Parade. You might expect a home win, but the bookies have shortened the odds on a Dale upset to 9/4, presumably because people have been backing it.
Lincoln have got off to a poor start, and are yet to pick up a point. However this week they head off to Wycombe, who have just sold striker John Sutton to Motherwell - although Sutton has not yet featured this campaign, so the effect is likely to be negligible. City, who have played two in-form teams in the league games, have a reasonable record at Adams Park, and could get their season starting again with three points, which you can back at 15/4.
Grimsby had a terrible result last week and face one of the teams fancied for promotion, Chesterfield, at home. Hopefully Stockdale will be fit again, so Alan Buckley will be able to name his first choice back four. It still won't address the problem that Town's joint leading scorer is Own Goals after three games. Grimsby also tend to do poorly immediately prior to a big cup game, which of course we have on the following Tuesday against Blackburn. Of the three possible match results, none are great value but if anything an away win for The Spireites (which the bookies have also shortened the price on) is the best bet at 6/4.
Dagenham are top. It won't last for ever and you might as well take advantage of them being short odds to win, especially at their dismal home ground. Port Vale (11/5) are a good price to come away from East London with three points.
This season we will be trying out three different betting strategies:
- Fixed Odds - as per last year
- Spread Betting on the Mini Performance Index with IG Index (25 points for a win, 10 for a draw, 10 for a goal)
- The Monkey (betting on Town to win each game 3-1, i.e. the complete absence of any betting strategy).
Recommended Fixed Odds Bets
Recommended Spread Bet
- Rotherham v Chester: Buy Rotherham mini-performance (38, www.igsport.com)
The Monkey's Bet
- Grimsby to win 3-1 (22/1, bet365)
Previous Fixed Odds Bets (1 or 2 bets, around £10 per week each of Rob's own money)
|06/08||Rochdale to beat Grimsby||17/10||-£10.00|
|06/08||Macclesfield to beat Shrewsbury||4/1||-£10.00|
|15/08||Bradford to win at Macclesfield||13/10||+£13.00|
|15/08||Rotherham to win at Morecambe||21/10||+£21.00|
Previous Spread Bets (Around 1 bet per week each of Rob's own money)
|06/08||Bury v Brentford: Brentford mini performance||20||S||0||+£20.00|
|15/08||Rochdale v Barnet: Rochdale mini-performance||31||S||55||-£24.00|
Previous Monkey Bets (£10 per week of the Monkey's pretend money)
|15/08||Grimsby to win 3-1||33/1||-£10.00|
|06/08||Grimsby to win 3-1||18/1||-£10.00|
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