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Beat the Bookies: Week 4
By: Rob Sedgwick
ROTHERHAM's drubbing of Chester last weekend produced a nice profit on the spread betting front. However loss in the two fixed odds recommendations meant overall it was not a profitable weekend.
This week sees a very even set of fixtures in League Two: weak teams are generally pitted against other weak teams, and strong teams against other strong teams. The result is that there are no outstanding favourites in any games, so expect a lot of draws this weekend!
Rochdale and Bury have both got off to good starts, and the game is of course a local derby to boot. Bury have had the better start, winning two league games and they have also won this fixture in the last three visits to Spotland. 13/5 for an away win looks the outstanding bet of the week, as does selling Rochdale or buying Bury in the spreads.
Lincoln and Grimsby have both had dire starts, but both have the "excuse" that they have played in-form sides (albeit a single win at this stage of the season can catapult a side towards the top of the table). Both sides no longer have that excuse. With injuries disrupting Alan Buckley's side, plus the midweek exertion of a cup game, it's hard to look past 11/10 for a home win; 12/5 for Town to repeat last year's victory does not look value.
Everyone has Chester down as relegation certainties, or would do if every team had started off on zero points. However they can a) be expected to improve at some stage, and b) be expected to pick up at least a few points at home. This weekend they face Barnet, who have lost every game, conceding seven goals. Chester's poor form is such that Barnet, who do not travel well, are favourites to win! Chester have some decent forward players and have got to be fancied to score a few and maybe win at 17/10 against Barnet's leaky defence.
Rotherham have got off to a cracking start and look well on the way towards positive territory. They head off to Brentford, who have made a reasonable start against poor sides. At 2/1 the Millers are well worth favouring on Saturday.
Our advice last week to oppose Dagenham whilst they are still in the uncharted water of the upper reaches of League Two still applies. A long trip to Morecambe will be a tough game for the Daggers and 6/4) for a home win is well worth a punt.
This season we will be trying out three different betting strategies:
- Fixed Odds - as per last year
- Spread Betting on the Mini Performance Index with IG Index (25 points for a win, 10 for a draw, 10 for a goal)
- The Monkey (betting on Town to win each game 3-1, i.e. the complete absence of any betting strategy).
Recommended Fixed Odds Bets
Recommended Spread Bet
- Rochdale v Bury: Sell Rochdale mini-performance (28, www.igsport.com)
The Monkey's Bet
- Grimsby to win 3-1 (33/1, bet365)
Previous Fixed Odds Bets (1 or 2 bets, around £10 per week each of Rob's own money)
|06/08||Rochdale to beat Grimsby||17/10||-£10.00|
|06/08||Macclesfield to beat Shrewsbury||4/1||-£10.00|
|15/08||Bradford to win at Macclesfield||13/10||+£13.00|
|15/08||Rotherham to win at Morecambe||21/10||+£21.00|
|19/08||Lincoln to win at Wycombe||15/4||-£10.00|
|19/08||Port Vale to beat Dag & Red||21/10||-£10.00|
Previous Spread Bets (Around 1 bet per week each of Rob's own money)
|06/08||Bury v Brentford: Brentford mini performance||20||S||0||+£20.00|
|15/08||Rochdale v Barnet: Rochdale mini-performance||31||S||55||-£24.00|
|19/08||Rotherham v Chester: Buy Rotherham mini-performance||38||B||55||+£17.00|
Previous Monkey Bets (£10 per week of the Monkey's pretend money)
|15/08||Grimsby to win 3-1||33/1||-£10.00|
|06/08||Grimsby to win 3-1||18/1||-£10.00|
|19/08||Grimsby to win 3-1||22/1||-£10.00|
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