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Beat the Bookies: Week 6

By: Rob Sedgwick
Date: 12/09/2012

JUST one winner last week, and on odds-on one at that, saw another reduction in our kitty for the season. It's time to get some juicy long odds winners and stop messing around backing favourites (unless it is Scunny to lose of course)!

Home > 2012-2013 Season > Beat the Bookies > Week 6

Town are favourites to beat Kidderminster away at around 7/5 (in old money). On recent form you'd have to agree, but Kidderminster have to be better than their league position suggests they are. The chances are better value can be found elsewhere on the coupon.

Premier League

  • Reading v Tottenham - home win (4.0, Marathon). We've seen very little of Reading this season as they've only played 2 games in the league. Their last game at Chelsea which seems an eternity ago they were unfortunate not to get anything from. The Royals were a bit jittery against Peterborough in the cup last time out, which suggests there might be a few goals on Sunday, and Federici's form in goal likewise suggesting Spurs might score. However the main indicator is Spurs have got off to a poor start, as did Chelsea under AVB last year. All the value is with the Royals in this televised game. Failing that bet on a high scoring game

  • Sunderland v Liverpool - home win (3.6, Smarkets). Liverpool are another slow starter who you'd struggle to find a decent performance from this season - Man City aside. Sunderland on the other hand have not had a bad performance. Yet the bookies still make Liverpool favourites at a ground where not many clubs come away with all three points from. Fill your boots!

    Championship

  • Brighton v Sheff Wed - away win (4.0, Blue Square). There really doesn't look much to choose between these teams, and both have got off to reasonable starts. You really wouldn't like to pick a winner. However the fact that you can get 3/1 for Wednesday to come away with the points means the bookies have done the job for you!

    League One

  • Shrewsbury v Scunthorpe - home win (1.93, Marathon). Scunthorpe to lose has been the banker of the season so far. They didn't lose last week, although the fact that they allowed 9 men to equalise against them at home suggests they all but did. Shrewsbury aren't exactly firing on all cylinders but it doesn't seem to make a great deal of difference who Scunny are playing so far this season - they always underperform. At some stage the odds are going to get so low on Scunny losing that it's not worth backing them to do so. However the Shrews are only just odds against at the weekend to grab all three points so it still looks a good price.

  • Stevenage v Crewe - away win (5.52, Pinnacle). Crewe look a decent price to win this match (5.52 with Pinnacle). They are not an easy side to beat and proved that in the last two games where they took 4 points against Tranmere and Coventry that they can match the best sides in League One.

    Blue Square Premier

  • Forest Green v Alfreton Town - away win (Draw No Bet). Looking at the results last weekend suggests Alfreton have got a chance here. While FGR were narrowly beaten by Grimsby, Alfreton were putting three past Luton. Forest Green have only lost once all season, and obviously deserve to beat favourites, but Alfreton could cause another big upset in this division where nobody is invincible this season.

    bet365

    Previous Fixed Odds Bets (1 or 2 bets, around £10 per week each of Rob's own money)

    DateBetOddsProfit/Loss
    06/09Dover v Hayes & Yeading - home win1.95£-10.00
    06/09AFC Telford v Lincoln City - home win2.20£-10.00
    06/09Northampton v AFC Wimbledon - home win1.83£8.33
    31/08Southampton v Man Utd - home win6.80£-10.00
    31/08Man City v QPR - Draw8.00£-10.00
    31/08Swansea v Sunderland - away win3.67£-10.00
    31/08Hartlepool v Scunthorpe - home win2.20£12.00
    31/08Tranmere v Colchester - home win2.05£10.50
    31/08Fleetwood Town v Aldershot - away win5.25£-10.00
    24/08Lincoln City v Macclesfield - home win3.00£-10.00
    24/08Aldershot v Cheltenham - away win3.10£21.00
    24/08Shrewsbury v Tranmere - away win3.10£-10.00
    24/08Scunthorpe v Yeovil - away win3.75£27.50
    24/08Charlton v Hull - home win2.40£-10.00
    24/08Chelsea v Newcastle - draw4.52£-10.00
    17/08Grimsby v Nuneaton - Grimsby to win by 3 or more4.80£-10.00
    17/08Crawley Town v Scunthorpe - home win2.10£11.00
    17/08Reading v Stoke - draw3.40£24.00
    10/08Lincoln City v Kidderminster - home2.83£18.30
    10/08Southport v Grimsby - home win2.97£-10.00
    10/08Hereford v Macclesfield - home win2.42£14.20
    Premier Total £-16.00
    Champ Total £-10.00
    L1 Total £51.00
    L2 Total £19.33
    BSP Total £-7.50
    BSS Total £-10.00
    Cups Total £0.00
    Grand Total £26.83

    2012 Summer Record (1 or 2 bets, around £10 per week each of Rob's own money)

    DateBetOddsProfit/Loss
    Rugby League Total£43.10
    Tennis Total£-30.80
    Euro 2012 Total-£15.00
    Cricket Total£21.00
    Baseball Total-£10.00
    Olympics Total£27.50
    Grand Total£37.80

    2011-2012 Record (1 or 2 bets, around £10 per week each of Rob's own money)

    CompetitionProfit/Loss
    Premier Total£-170.60
    Champ Total£-24.90
    L1 Total£4.88
    L2 Total£198.80
    BSP Total£-83.00
    BSS Total£111.80
    Cups Total£21.85
    Grand Total£58.83

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