Beat the Bookies: Week 7

By: Rob Sedgwick
Date: 17/09/2008

TOWN'S defeat to Chester meant a big spread bet win for Beat the Bookies. However, the two fixed odds bets never quite came to fruition.

Brentford v Lincoln Brentford have started the season well, and Lincoln poorly, especially on their travels. The Bees are odds on at 5/6 to win at Griffin Park, but there is nothing to suggest Lincoln can expect to get anything out of this game. Selection: Home Win.

Chester v Shrewsbury Town's opponents last week have recovered well from a dreadful start. This next game will give them their severest test against a strong Shrewsbury side, and in a local derby to boot in Sunday's game. Chester's display last week suggested they will concede if the defence is put under pressure. Chester can score goals, but Shrewsbury do not concede many. This looks like a buy spread bet for either side really, but with Shrewsbury winning 7-0 last week they get the nod. Selection: Away Win.

Morecambe v Grimsby. Nobody knows how Town will react to the sacking of Alan Buckley. The players are bound to feel some sort of release and may come out of their shells and we'll see what they are capable of. Morecambe have not done well in the league, but they have played all the top teams and managed to beat Shrewsbury last game.Under normal circumstances we would be recommending Evens for a home win, but this week you may fancy 11/4 for a Town win, or 11/10 in a +0.25 handicap, which means you win half you bet with a draw. Selection: Home Win.

Wycombe v Dag & Red. It's no surprise that Wycombe are near the top, but few would forecast this as a top of the table clash at the beginning of the season, when most had the Daggers pencilled in as relegation fodder. Wycombe score very few goals, while Dagenham score plenty. Dagenham should be value for at least a draw and if you are brave you may chance you arm with 11/4 for an away win. Selection: Away Win.

Port Vale v Macclesfield. For those not following League Two this season, most fans would put this match down as a home banker. However Port Vale have carried on with last season's relegation form, whereas Macclesfield have picked up two impressive wins in their last two games. By far the best value in this game is 7/2 for an away win. Selection: Away Win.

This season we will be trying out three different betting strategies:

• Fixed Odds - as per last year
• Spread Betting on the Mini Performance Index with IG Index (25 points for a win, 10 for a draw, 10 for a goal)
• The Monkey (betting on Town to win each game 3-1, i.e. the complete absence of any betting strategy).

Recommended Fixed Odds Bets

• 1. Dagenham to beat Wycombe (3/1, Paddy Power)
• 2. Macclesfield to beat Port Vale (7/2, bet365))