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Can we make the Playoffs? Some stats.

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RonMariner
April 18, 2022, 5:59pm

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Quoted from Poojah
Re-ran the calculator on the basis the team placed highest in the league wins, with a 4 position handicap for the away team. It certainly suggests that we should, on paper, be quite comfortable for the play-offs although this scenario would mean away trips to Solihull and Wrexham to make the final, neither of which I fancy.

It suggests we have the slightest sniff of getting a home tie in the first game, but my preferred scenario amongst those which are realistic would probably finish 7th with ties away to Notts County and Halifax. We may have only taken 4 points from 4 games against those two, but I saw nothing in them to fear.

I do reckon we’ll finish above Chesterfield though.

[img]https://i.ibb.co/X2bzHyL/195-B7869-0914-4-EBC-AEC1-0-B8744-CAC735.jpg[/img]


We would need to win all five remaining games to get to 84 points. That would be fantastic but its likely we will will slip up somewhere. Finishing on 81 points would be a great achievement, but I doubt that will get us above 6th place.
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RonMariner
April 18, 2022, 7:24pm

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I think we can forget Bromley and Boreham Wood, its Dagenham we need to watch now.

Torquay are on a very good run too and it will be a tough game for us on Saturday. Important we beat them to keep the pressure on Chesterfield who have van easy home game against Dover.
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Poojah
April 18, 2022, 8:06pm
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Quoted from RonMariner
I think we can forget Bromley and Boreham Wood, its Dagenham we need to watch now.

Torquay are on a very good run too and it will be a tough game for us on Saturday. Important we beat them to keep the pressure on Chesterfield who have van easy home game against Dover.


The interesting dynamic of that Torquay game is that they’re 9 points behind us with BBC a game in hand. Assuming they still see a slim chance of making the play-offs, they’ll know they have to beat us and I’d imagine may set-up in a way they might not have done mid-season.

It will be interesting to see who that favours.


A smooth sea never made a skillful mariner.
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RonMariner
April 18, 2022, 8:31pm

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In many ways it’s a must win game for Torquay. If we win and go 12 points clear of them they can forget catching us. So they might well be feeling the pressure.

Hopefully it will be another large crowd and stonking atmosphere to spur us on. I would take a 1-0 win right now.
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