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Beat the Bookies: Week 15

By: Rob Sedgwick
Date: 16/11/2012

IT had to happen eventually. After all the recent winning weeks, the time for all our tips to lose would eventually come around, and so it came to pass last week.

Home > 2012-2013 Season > Beat the Bookies > Week 15

Town look good value for a home win this week against Braintree, who had a tough cup replay against Tranmere in midweek, and had several players go off injured in the game. If they have got injuries then teams like Braintree don't have the large squads to have like for like replacements in the same position. Town, who were impressive last week against Woking, are generally around 1/2 to win - if you've got a couple of hundred quid to spare, it looks like a good investment.

Premier League

  • Norwich v Man Utd - home win (8.0, William Hill). Every time Man Utd leave the field they seem to have been fortunate to win, and have had to come from behind on numerous occasions this season. The betting market of course hugely favours them in every game but is the price realistic? Every season Utd seem to lose a game like this away from home, and if you strike lucky and back it, you've hit the jackpot.

  • Man City v Aston Villa - away win (DNB) (13.0, Bet 365). Similar logic applies here - favourites are invariably overpriced. Villa were not a million miles off beating Man Utd in their last game. A lot of Man City players will have been involved in international duty in midweek as well. The DNB bet offers a bit of insurance in that you get your money back if it's a draw.

    League Two

  • Gillingham v Morecambe - away win (6.0, Sky Bet). Leaders Gillingham have failed to win for the last two games. Morecambe have won the last two and are unbeaten in fourth.

  • Rotherham v Cheltenham - away win (4.2, Sky Bet). Cheltenham are in great form. They have won four our of the last five - the one exception was a draw at leaders Gillingham. Rotherham lost 5-0 at Dagenham last week!


    Previous Fixed Odds Bets (1 or 2 bets, around £10 per week each of Rob's own money)

    08/11Forest Green v Stockport - away win5.09£-10.00
    08/11Cheltenham v Burton Albion - away win4.75£-10.00
    08/11Reading v Norwich - away win3.40£-10.00
    08/11Everton v Sunderland - away win8.60£-10.00
    08/11Tamworth v AFC Telford - away win3.25£-10.00
    01/11Liverpool v Newcastle - away win6.90£-10.00
    01/11Sheff Wed v Peterborough - away win4.60£-10.00
    01/11Swindon v Macclesfield - away win11.00£100.00
    01/11Aldershot v Hendon - away win10.00£-10.00
    01/11Cambridge C v MK Dons - home win11.00£-10.00
    25/10Dartford v Mansfield - away win3.15£-10.00
    25/10Chesterfield v Barnet - away win6.20£52.00
    25/10Leicester v Crystal Palace - away win7.11£61.10
    25/10Tranmere v Preston - away win3.75£-10.00
    25/10Stoke v Sunderland - away win4.57£-10.00
    19/10Brighton v Middlesbrough - away win5.60£46.00
    19/10Grimsby v Kidderminster - draw3.60£-10.00
    19/10Fleetwood Town v AFC Wimbledon - away win6.50£-10.00
    19/10Forest Green v Dartford - away win5.00£-10.00
    19/10Woking v Ebbsfleet - away win4.20£32.00
    12/10Bournemouth v Leyton Orient - away win4.31£-10.00
    12/10Fleetwood Town v Wycombe - away win5.82£48.20
    12/10Gateshead v Cambridge Utd - away win3.44£-10.00
    12/10Telford Utd vs Grimsby Town - draw3.52£-10.00
    12/10Eastbourne Borough v Sutton Utd - draw3.60£-10.00
    05/10Man City v Sunderland - draw or away win4.10£-10.00
    05/10Blackpool v Charlton - away win5.60£46.00
    05/10MK Dons v Portsmouth - away win8.00£-10.00
    05/10Notts County v Tranmere - away win3.60£26.00
    05/10Hereford v Stockport - away win3.96£29.60
    05/10Morecambe v Burton Albion - away win2.75£-10.00
    05/10Sutton Utd v Tonbridge - draw3.50£25.00
    28/09Dover v Maidenhead Utd - away win4.33£-10.00
    28/09Forest Green v Lincoln City - draw4.33£-10.00
    28/09Stockport v Ebbsfleet United - home win2.30£13.00
    28/09Bournemouth v Walsall - away win5.56£45.60
    28/09Reading v Newcastle - away win2.50£-10.00
    28/09Fulham v Man City - home win4.80£-10.00
    21/09Liverpool v Man Utd - away win2.79£17.90
    21/09Leicester v Hull - away win4.19£-10.00
    21/09Walsall v Preston - away win2.50£-10.00
    21/09Crawley Town v Tranmere - away win3.75£27.50
    21/09Braintree Town v Stockport - away win6.00£-10.00
    12/09Reading v Tottenham - home win4.00£-10.00
    12/09Sunderland v Liverpool - home win3.60£-10.00
    12/09Brighton v Sheff Wed - away win4.00£-10.00
    12/09Shrewsbury v Scunthorpe - home win1.93£-10.00
    12/09Stevenage v Crewe - away win5.52£-10.00
    12/09Forest Green v Alfreton Town - away win (DNB)4.33£0.00
    06/09Dover v Hayes & Yeading - home win1.95£-10.00
    06/09AFC Telford v Lincoln City - home win2.20£-10.00
    06/09Northampton v AFC Wimbledon - home win1.83£8.33
    31/08Southampton v Man Utd - home win6.80£-10.00
    31/08Man City v QPR - Draw8.00£-10.00
    31/08Swansea v Sunderland - away win3.67£-10.00
    31/08Hartlepool v Scunthorpe - home win2.20£12.00
    31/08Tranmere v Colchester - home win2.05£10.50
    31/08Fleetwood Town v Aldershot - away win5.25£-10.00
    24/08Lincoln City v Macclesfield - home win3.00£-10.00
    24/08Charlton v Hull - home win2.40£-10.00
    24/08Chelsea v Newcastle - draw4.52£-10.00
    24/08Scunthorpe v Yeovil - away win3.75£27.50
    24/08Shrewsbury v Tranmere - away win3.10£-10.00
    24/08Aldershot v Cheltenham - away win3.10£21.00
    17/08Crawley Town v Scunthorpe - home win2.10£11.00
    17/08Grimsby v Nuneaton - Grimsby to win by 3 or more4.80£-10.00
    17/08Reading v Stoke - draw3.40£24.00
    10/08Hereford v Macclesfield - home win2.42£14.20
    10/08Lincoln City v Kidderminster - home2.83£18.30
    10/08Southport v Grimsby - home win2.97£-10.00
    Premier Total £-88.10
    Champ Total £113.10
    L1 Total £100.10
    L2 Total £79.53
    BSP Total £-34.90
    BSS Total £-5.00
    Cups Total £92.00
    Grand Total £256.73

    2012 Summer Record (1 or 2 bets, around £10 per week each of Rob's own money)

    Rugby League Total£43.10
    Tennis Total£-30.80
    Euro 2012 Total-£15.00
    Cricket Total£21.00
    Baseball Total-£10.00
    Olympics Total£27.50
    Grand Total£37.80

    2011-2012 Record (1 or 2 bets, around £10 per week each of Rob's own money)

    Premier Total£-170.60
    Champ Total£-24.90
    L1 Total£4.88
    L2 Total£198.80
    BSP Total£-83.00
    BSS Total£111.80
    Cups Total£21.85
    Grand Total£58.83

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