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How Far Have We Come..........

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diehardmariner
February 5, 2016, 10:20am
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I wasn't directly referring or even disagreeing with your post Mal, just general thoughts and observations.
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MuddyWaters
February 5, 2016, 10:37am
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On the basis that we were a refereeing decision away from promotion last season and we, allegedly, improved our squad in the summer (Podge's goal tally suggests we did), we don't appear to have come as far as we should. You could also add that without the impact of Conor Townsend in the unbeaten run, we might not be in as good a position as we are now.

Regards looking at the situation at the end of the season, what would be the point? The tide would either be further out or well in by then.
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TheRonRaffertyFanClub
February 5, 2016, 11:08am
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Quoted from diehardmariner
I think it's quite widely debated that even with the Operation Promotion money our budget still isn't even close to the top 3 of this league.    You only have to look at the sheer scale of losses that FGR are absorbing to be aware of that.  Then also look at the names Eastleigh were trying to sign last month to further realise what we're competing against.

This idea that we should be champions just because we're Grimsby, we were top of the Championship for a day in 2001 and we raised £100,000 in the summer - where exactly has it come from?  

Like it not, we're one of the bigger clubs in this league with a better history than anyone else.  That's it.   We're not the big fish.  We're not the dominant force, we're not the money bags side and we definitely don't have any god given right to be top of the table.  Our history counts for nothing.

I'm not keen to get involved in this Hurst in/Hurst out argument but Hurst has made us consistently competitive over the last 3/4 seasons despite us not having the biggest budget in the league.  I know this won't please a lot of people but if Fenty has at any point said to Hurst 'your target is promotion, nothing else will do' then it's an unfair target.  Yes, that hurts me too to see my proud club settling for a play-off place in the fifth flipping tier of English football.  But that's the reality of it.  If we've got the fifth best budget in the league then anything other than fifth is a major achievement.  You can also add to the situation the hindrance of our location.  Hurst does very well to attract players here in an economy of one-year deals and no guaranteed renewals.  

How far have we come?  Year on year I think we've improved under Hurst, maybe not as much as we would have liked but this side would beat the side from 3 years ago comfortably.  Will that be enough to keep Hurst in a job if we're still a Conference side next season?  I don't know.  Personally I like the work he's doing here and wouldn't be jumping up and down for him to go, but I can understand the growing frustration.  


I am on your wavelength with this. The only thing I would say about budgets is like I said earlier on this thread - money isn't everything. It depends how you spend it. Evans knew how to do that when he was at Crawley, Woods didn't. I'm not sure Hurst has made the most of his budget either. A season is a long time and the squad you start with in August may be quite different the next April for all sorts of reasons - loss of form, injury, attitude .... the art of building a promotion side is keeping the momentum going so you start well and  finish well.

Despite a very good pre-season we didn't start well. Getting Connor Townsend was a big plus but that was always going to be temporary.  No doubt there are reasons (excuses?) why certain players could not be signed but the fact remains that since Townsend went we haven't acquired anyone to actually make the side better, just fill in a gap. And in fact the squad is now weaker in numbers than at any time in the season. This doesn't strike me as good management just at the time when you need that bit of extra quality for a good promotion push in February/March. A little bad luck can be acceptable but to sign no-one apart from a left back cover is poor to say the least.

Fortunately it is the Trophy this weekend, maybe there will be a loan before our next league game to lift the team. They need a lift because this really is a crucial time. Another good run secures at least playoffs in good time, a bad run and we are in the dog fight.


“If all mankind minus one, were of one opinion, and only one person were of the contrary opinion, mankind would be no more justified in silencing that one person, than he, if he had the power, would be justified in silencing mankind.”
― John Stuart Mill, On Liberty."
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excusebeef
February 5, 2016, 11:40am
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I've not enjoyed supporting town more than I have this season. It's just been ace, especially the away days. I think he's doing fine, but more importantly he's getting better with each passing season. Both on a player front and points tally front. Surely you can't ignore that sort of progression?
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arryarryarry
February 5, 2016, 11:49am
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Quoted from excusebeef
I've not enjoyed supporting town more than I have this season. It's just been ace, especially the away days. I think he's doing fine, but more importantly he's getting better with each passing season. Both on a player front and points tally front. Surely you can't ignore that sort of progression?


How's he getting better, we look likely to finish 3rd, and we still keep cocking it up against the poorer teams.

As for progression, remind me, what league are we still in.
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MarinerMal
February 5, 2016, 11:53am
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Quoted from GrimRob
We were playing two divisions above our natural level for most of the 1990s and now we are one division below, and at the right end of it. Bury and Rochdale are from an area where there is more money that's why they have risen as the demographics of the game have changed. Scunny are definitely in a higher division than their natural level, but that doesn't mean you should demand the same of us.

The fact is that your are attributing a fall that would have happened anyway to benign loans and all of the rest of it because you think Town are a far bigger fish than they actually are.


Historically, at least, it would suggest our natural level is more League One rather than League Two

Seasons spent at Level 1 of the football league system: 12
Seasons spent at Level 2 of the football league system: 49
Seasons spent at Level 3 of the football league system: 30
Seasons spent at Level 4 of the football league system: 14

We are an old football club so we have most seasons at Level 2 but that is not our natural level anymore. I would think mid table level 3 would be our natural level, if we can ever get out of our current league, that is.
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arryarryarry
February 5, 2016, 11:56am
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Quoted from diehardmariner
I think it's quite widely debated that even with the Operation Promotion money our budget still isn't even close to the top 3 of this league.    You only have to look at the sheer scale of losses that FGR are absorbing to be aware of that.  Then also look at the names Eastleigh were trying to sign last month to further realise what we're competing against.

This idea that we should be champions just because we're Grimsby, we were top of the Championship for a day in 2001 and we raised £100,000 in the summer - where exactly has it come from?  

Like it not, we're one of the bigger clubs in this league with a better history than anyone else.  That's it.   We're not the big fish.  We're not the dominant force, we're not the money bags side and we definitely don't have any god given right to be top of the table.  Our history counts for nothing.

I'm not keen to get involved in this Hurst in/Hurst out argument but Hurst has made us consistently competitive over the last 3/4 seasons despite us not having the biggest budget in the league.  I know this won't please a lot of people but if Fenty has at any point said to Hurst 'your target is promotion, nothing else will do' then it's an unfair target.  Yes, that hurts me too to see my proud club settling for a play-off place in the fifth flipping tier of English football.  But that's the reality of it.  If we've got the fifth best budget in the league then anything other than fifth is a major achievement.  You can also add to the situation the hindrance of our location.  Hurst does very well to attract players here in an economy of one-year deals and no guaranteed renewals.  

How far have we come?  Year on year I think we've improved under Hurst, maybe not as much as we would have liked but this side would beat the side from 3 years ago comfortably.  Will that be enough to keep Hurst in a job if we're still a Conference side next season?  I don't know.  Personally I like the work he's doing here and wouldn't be jumping up and down for him to go, but I can understand the growing frustration.  


So does the team with the biggest budget win every league from the Premiership downwards?.

How come some of the biggest teams in the land aren't doing that and keep sacking their managers.

Surely one of the biggest factors has to be the manager and how he gets the best out of the players he chooses.

FGR have probably had the biggest budget in our league these past few seasons but until now haven't really looked like winning the league.
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mariner91
February 5, 2016, 12:16pm
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A little bad luck can be acceptable but to sign no-one apart from a left back cover is poor to say the least.

.


Except that's not at all true. We signed two central midfielders (senior players) and lost one who has done nothing all season so we're probably stronger in that area of the pitch. Our defence looks weaker in depth now due to injuries but we have as many defenders as any other point in the season. Letting Mackreth leave and not replacing him was stupid in my opinion so that I would say is poor and needs rectifying with a good loan player. And we've been needing a fourth striker since the start of the season and I'm really hoping we can get a decent loan in although I wouldn't be surprised if we were hoping to get Alex Jones back but he's had a better offer.
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diehardmariner
February 5, 2016, 12:33pm
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Quoted from arryarryarry


So does the team with the biggest budget win every league from the Premiership downwards?.

How come some of the biggest teams in the land aren't doing that and keep sacking their managers.

Surely one of the biggest factors has to be the manager and how he gets the best out of the players he chooses.

FGR have probably had the biggest budget in our league these past few seasons but until now haven't really looked like winning the league.


Biggest budget win the league?  Yeah, generally it does.  Not all the time but more often than not they do.  Chelsea last season - whacked the cash on Costa and Fabregas - won the league.  Bournemouth last year in the Championship - ridiculously big budget saw them win the league.

The big teams that are sacking their managers are either over-reacting or have failed to strengthen where needed and most importantly when needed.  Using the obvious example of Mourinho, he made no secret of his disappointment at the clubs inability to replace ageing players within the squad.  Now there are far more many factors involved in Chelsea's demise under him but for me the biggest issue was the hierarchy there got complacent and didn't believe in spending whereas their rivals did.  

Doesn't the fact that we've outperformed FGR season on season tell you that Hurst isn't doing that bad a job really?   If we've got the fifth best budget in the league, we should see anything as finishing above fifth as better than expected.

Don't get me wrong, I really really want us to win this league.  But there's a small handful of clubs who will be thinking the same and that they expect to win it, based solely on a far superior budget and/or location factors.  
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diehardmariner
February 5, 2016, 12:44pm
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I am on your wavelength with this. The only thing I would say about budgets is like I said earlier on this thread - money isn't everything. It depends how you spend it. Evans knew how to do that when he was at Crawley, Woods didn't. I'm not sure Hurst has made the most of his budget either. A season is a long time and the squad you start with in August may be quite different the next April for all sorts of reasons - loss of form, injury, attitude .... the art of building a promotion side is keeping the momentum going so you start well and  finish well.

Despite a very good pre-season we didn't start well. Getting Connor Townsend was a big plus but that was always going to be temporary.  No doubt there are reasons (excuses?) why certain players could not be signed but the fact remains that since Townsend went we haven't acquired anyone to actually make the side better, just fill in a gap. And in fact the squad is now weaker in numbers than at any time in the season. This doesn't strike me as good management just at the time when you need that bit of extra quality for a good promotion push in February/March. A little bad luck can be acceptable but to sign no-one apart from a left back cover is poor to say the least.

Fortunately it is the Trophy this weekend, maybe there will be a loan before our next league game to lift the team. They need a lift because this really is a crucial time. Another good run secures at least playoffs in good time, a bad run and we are in the dog fight.


Very well made points regards how you spend the budget.  Evans is a shrewd operator with or without money, which is why he's now in the Championship.  If it wasn't for his chequered past I think he would have managed much higher much sooner.  I find the bloke absolutely odious but he is a fantastic manager.  

His Crawley budget was unbelievable, the fact he could spend £275,000 on Richard Brodie and not play him tells you everything.  I remember rumours of several of the Crawley players taking home £5,000 a week.  Doesn't matter how good a manager you are, you can't compete with that.  

I don't know really about how Hurst has used his budget.  Historically he always seems to have left a little bit behind for January so he can strengthen (I know last year we were helped by the Mullen money but I think he had already made a few additions prior).  At the beginning of the season I thought Hurst had built a very, very good squad.  3 good full backs, 3 good centre backs, 3 good central midfielders, 3 good wingers, 3 good strikers and Nathan Arnold to make up either another striker or a winger.  Added to that two lads in Venney and Clifton who would boost the midfield if needed.  If not sure how else he could have built it better.  Had we brought in another centre back it would have seemed wasteful when we've had Pearson sat on the bench most of the season.    

In January Hurst strengthened the midfield by one.  I do think he's made a mistake in letting Mackreth go without a replacement in mind because we're now down to 3 wide players.  Monkhouse is carrying an injury and Marshall isn't exactly what you would call reliable or consistent.  That's it though.   Striker....yeah another body would do us well but Hurst has previously brought in strikers and he's been moaned at.  

Plus it may well be that come next week we're top heavy in certain areas again, I definitely don't believe Hurst's denial of his interest in Henderson or him saying he's drawing blanks when looking to boost the numbers.
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